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The report "The New Food Fights: U.S. Public Divides Over Food Science" (December 1, 2016, www.pewinternet.org, retrieved December 10,2016 ) states that younger adults are more likely to see foods with genetically modified ingredients as being bad for their health than older adults. This statement is based on a representative sample of 178 adult Americans age 18 to 29 and a representative sample of 427 adult Americans age 50 to 64 . Of those in the 18 to 29 age group, \(48 \%\) said they believed these foods were bad for their health, while only \(38 \%\) of those in the 50 to 64 age group believed this. a. Are the sample sizes large enough to use the large-sample confidence interval to estimate the difference in the population proportions? Explain. b. Estimate the difference in the proportion of adult Americans age 18 to 29 who believe the foods made with genetically modified ingredients are bad for their health and the corresponding proportion for adult Americans age 50 to \(64 .\) Use a \(90 \%\) confidence interval. c. Is zero in the confidence interval? What does this suggest about the difference in the two population proportions?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The sample sizes are large enough to use the large-sample confidence interval. The 90% confidence interval for the difference in population proportions is (-0.0004, 0.2004). Zero is included in the interval, suggesting that there may be no significant difference between the two population proportions of those believing genetically modified foods are bad for their health between the age groups 18-29 and 50-64.

Step by step solution

01

Analyzing the sample sizes

We need to check if the sample sizes are large enough to use the large-sample confidence interval for estimating the difference in population proportions. We apply the following rule: 1. Both sample sizes, n1 and n2, must be bigger than 30. 2. n1 * P1_hat * (1-P1_hat) >= 10 3. n2 * P2_hat * (1-P2_hat) >= 10 where P1_hat and P2_hat are the sample proportions for each age group. n1 = 178 (sample size of age group 18 to 29) P1_hat = 0.48 (proportion of 18-29 age group believing genetically modified foods are bad for their health) n2 = 427 (sample size of age group 50 to 64) P2_hat = 0.38 (proportion of 50-64 age group believing genetically modified foods are bad for their health)
02

Checking the conditions

Now, let's check if the conditions are met. 1. n1 = 178 and n2 = 427, both are bigger than 30, the first condition is met. 2. 178 * 0.48 * (1-0.48) = 44.832, which is greater than 10, the second condition is met. 3. 427 * 0.38 * (1-0.38) = 100.758, which is greater than 10, the third condition is met. Since all the conditions are met, we can use the large-sample confidence interval to estimate the population proportions difference.
03

Calculate the confidence interval

We want to estimate the difference in population proportions using a 90% confidence interval. The formula is: CI = (P1_hat - P2_hat) ± Z * sqrt( [(P1_hat * (1-P1_hat)) / n1] + [(P2_hat * (1-P2_hat)) / n2] ) For a 90% confidence level, Z = 1.645 Now, let's compute the confidence interval: CI = (0.48 - 0.38) ± 1.645 * sqrt( [(0.48 * (1-0.48)) / 178] + [(0.38 * (1-0.38)) / 427] ) CI = 0.1 ± 1.645 * sqrt( 0.002567 + 0.001483 ) CI = 0.1 ± 1.645 * 0.0611 CI = 0.1 ± 0.1004 The 90% confidence interval is (-0.0004, 0.2004).
04

Analyzing the confidence interval

The confidence interval we have calculated is (-0.0004, 0.2004). We need to check if zero is included in the interval and discuss the implications. Since zero is included in the interval, we cannot say with 90% confidence that there's a difference in the population proportions of those believing genetically modified foods are bad for their health between the two age groups. It is possible that there is no difference between the two population proportions.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Size Adequacy
When conducting research or surveys, determining whether a sample size is large enough is crucial to ensure reliable results. This is especially true in the field of statistics when we want to generalize the findings of our sample to the broader population.

For a sample to be considered adequate for a large-sample confidence interval analysis, the sample size should typically be greater than 30. This is a rule of thumb that gives us a reasonable assurance that the sample's distribution approximates the normal distribution due to the Central Limit Theorem. Additionally, the product of the sample size, the estimated population proportion ((P1_hat)), and its complement (1-P1_hat) should be at least 10 to guarantee that each outcome occurs frequently enough to give a reliable estimate.

In the exercise provided, both sample sizes are sufficiently large (178 and 427, both greater than 30), and the computed products (44.832 and 100.758) each exceed the minimum criteria of 10. Thus, we conclude that the sample sizes are adequate for using the large-sample confidence interval calculations to estimate population proportions.
Population Proportion Difference Estimation
When comparing two different population groups, such as different age demographics, we may seek to estimate the difference in their respective population proportions regarding a particular belief or characteristic. The process of estimating the difference in population proportions involves calculating a confidence interval, which gives us a range within which we can expect the true population difference to fall, with a specified level of confidence.

For the 18 to 29 and 50 to 64 age groups surveyed, the estimated population proportions (0.48 and 0.38), when plugged into the confidence interval formula, resulted in an interval of (-0.0004, 0.2004) at a 90% confidence level. This means we are 90% confident that the true difference in the population proportions who believe genetically modified foods are bad for their health falls between a negligible negative difference and a 20.04% difference. Since the confidence interval includes zero, this indicates that the true difference may be non-existent, and any observed difference could be due to sampling error.

The process of estimating this difference inclusively with a confidence level is fundamental to making informed statements about population characteristics without direct access to the entire population's data.
Statistical Significance Analysis
When evaluating the results of a statistical analysis, it is important to determine whether the observed findings are statistically significant. Statistical significance refers to the likelihood that the observed difference between two or more groups is not due to random chance.

In statistical hypothesis testing, the significance level (often set at 0.05, 0.01, or 0.10) establishes a threshold for determining if our results are significant or could have occurred by random chance. The report's findings, reflected in the confidence interval, must be compared against this threshold.

In the exercise, the 90% confidence interval includes zero, meaning that we cannot claim with high certainty that there is a statistically significant difference in the beliefs about genetically modified foods between the two age groups. If zero were not included within the confidence interval, it would suggest that there is a statistically significant difference in the population proportions. Therefore, when zero is within the confidence interval, we cannot confidently assert that the observed difference is not due to random variation, and we must acknowledge the possibility of no real difference in the population.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Gallup surveyed adult Americans about their consumer debt ("Americans' Big Debt Burden Growing, Not Evenly Distributed," February 4, 2016, www.gallup.com, retrieved December 15,2016 ). They reported that \(47 \%\) of millennials (those born between 1980 and 1996 ) and \(61 \%\) of Gen Xers (those born between 1965 and 1971 ) did not pay off their credit cards each month and therefore carried a balance from month to month. Suppose that these percentages were based on representative samples of 450 millennials and 300 Gen Xers. Is there convincing evidence that the proportion of Gen Xers who do not pay off their credit cards each month is greater than this proportion for millennials? Test the appropriate hypotheses using a significance level of 0.05

According to the U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov), the percentage of U.S. residents living in poverty in 2015 was \(12.2 \%\) for men and \(14.8 \%\) for women. These percentages were estimates based on data from large representative samples of men and women. Suppose that the sample sizes were 1200 for men and 1000 for women. You would like to use the survey data to estimate the difference in the proportion living in poverty in 2015 for men and women. (Hint: See Example \(11.2 .\).) a. Answer the four key questions (QSTN) for this problem. What method would you consider based on the answers to these questions? b. Use the five-step process for estimation problems \(\left(\mathrm{EMC}^{3}\right)\) to calculate and interpret a \(90 \%\) large- sample confidence interval for the difference in the proportion living in poverty in 2015 for men and women.

Researchers carried out an experiment to evaluate the effectiveness of using acupuncture to treat heel pain. The experiment is described in the paper "Effectiveness of Trigger Point Dry Needling for Plantar Heel Pain: A Randomized Controlled Trial" (Physical Therapy [2014]: \(1083-1094\) ) and a follow-up response to a letter to the editor of the journal (Physical Therapy [2014]: \(1354-1355)\). In this experiment, 84 patients experiencing heel pain were randomly assigned to one of two groups. One group received acupuncture and the other group received a sham treatment that consisted of using a blunt needle that did not penetrate the skin. Of the 43 patients in the sham treatment group, 17 reported pain reduction of more than 13 points on a foot pain scale (this was considered a meaningful reduction in pain). Of the 41 patients in the acupuncture group, 28 reported pain reduction of more than 13 points on the foot pain scale. a. Use a \(95 \%\) confidence interval to estimate the difference in the proportion who experience a meaningful pain reduction for the acupuncture treatment and for the sham treatment. b. What does the interval in Part (b) suggest about the effectiveness of acupuncture in reducing heel pain?

A report in USA TODAY described an experiment to explore the accuracy of wearable devices designed to measure heart rate ("Wearable health monitors not always reliable, study shows," USA TODAY, October 12,2016\()\). The researchers found that when 50 volunteers wore an Apple Watch to track heart rate as they walked, jogged, and ran quickly on a treadmill for three minutes, the results were accurate compared with an EKG 92\% of the time. When 50 volunteers wore a Fitbit Charge, the heart rate results were accurate \(84 \%\) of the time. a. Explain why the data from this study should not be analyzed using a large- sample hypothesis test for a difference in two population proportions. b. Carry out a hypothesis test to determine if there is convincing evidence that the proportion of accurate results for people wearing an Apple Watch is greater than this proportion for those wearing a Fitbit Charge. Use the Shiny app "Randomization Test for Two Proportions" to report an approximate \(P\) -value and use it to reach a decision in the hypothesis test. Remember to interpret the results of the test in context. c. Use the Shiny app "Bootstrap Confidence Interval for Difference in Two Proportions" to obtain a \(95 \%\) bootstrap confidence interval for the difference in the population proportions of accurate results for people wearing an Apple Watch and those wearing a Fitbit Charge. Interpret the interval in the context of the research.

A hotel chain is interested in evaluating reservation processes. Guests can reserve a room by using either a telephone system or an online system that is accessed through the hotel's web site. Independent random samples of 80 guests who reserved a room by phone and 60 guests who reserved a room online were selected. Of those who reserved by phone, 57 reported that they were satisfied with the reservation process. Of those who reserved online, 50 reported that they were satisfied. Based on these data, is it reasonable to conclude that the proportion who are satisfied is greater for those who reserve a room online? Test the appropriate hypotheses using a significance level of \(0.05 .\) (Hint: See Example \(11.4 .)\)

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