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91Ó°ÊÓ

According to the U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov), the percentage of U.S. residents living in poverty in 2015 was \(12.2 \%\) for men and \(14.8 \%\) for women. These percentages were estimates based on data from large representative samples of men and women. Suppose that the sample sizes were 1200 for men and 1000 for women. You would like to use the survey data to estimate the difference in the proportion living in poverty in 2015 for men and women. (Hint: See Example \(11.2 .\).) a. Answer the four key questions (QSTN) for this problem. What method would you consider based on the answers to these questions? b. Use the five-step process for estimation problems \(\left(\mathrm{EMC}^{3}\right)\) to calculate and interpret a \(90 \%\) large- sample confidence interval for the difference in the proportion living in poverty in 2015 for men and women.

Short Answer

Expert verified
A 90% confidence interval for the difference in the proportion of men and women living in poverty in 2015 is estimated to be between \(0.26\%\) and \(4.94\%\).

Step by step solution

01

Identify Given Data

The given data in the problem are: - Proportion of men living in poverty: \(12.2\%\) or \(0.122\) - Sample size for men: \(1200\) - Proportion of women living in poverty: \(14.8\%\) or \(0.148\) - Sample size for women: \(1000\)
02

Calculate Sample Proportions and Standard Errors

We can calculate the sample standard errors for men and women using the formula: \[SE = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}}\] For men: \[SE_m = \sqrt{\frac{0.122(1-0.122)}{1200}} = 0.0096\] For women: \[SE_w = \sqrt{\frac{0.148(1-0.148)}{1000}} = 0.0104\]
03

Calculate the Difference in Proportions

To calculate the difference in proportions, we simply subtract the proportion of men living in poverty from the proportion of women living in poverty: \[\Delta p = p_w - p_m = 0.148 - 0.122 = 0.026\]
04

Calculate the Standard Error of the Difference

Since the samples of men and women are independent, we can calculate the standard error of the difference using the formula: \[SE_{\Delta p} = \sqrt{SE_m^2 + SE_w^2} = \sqrt{(0.0096)^2 + (0.0104)^2} = 0.0142\]
05

Calculate the 90% Confidence Interval

With a 90% confidence level, the critical z-value is approximately \(1.645\). We can calculate the margin of error using the product of the critical z-value and the standard error of the difference: \[ME = 1.645 \cdot 0.0142 = 0.0234\] Now we will calculate the lower and upper bounds of the confidence interval: \[CI = (\Delta p - ME, \Delta p + ME) = (0.026 - 0.0234, 0.026 + 0.0234) = (0.0026, 0.0494)\] Therefore, with a 90% confidence level, we can estimate that the difference in the proportion of men and women living in poverty in 2015 lies between \(0.26\%\) and \(4.94\%\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Difference in Proportions
The difference in proportions involves comparing two groups to find how their proportions vary from each other. In this exercise, we compare the proportion of men living in poverty to that of women. We have the percentages: 12.2% for men and 14.8% for women.
This means that we are calculating the difference in proportions as follows:
- For men: 12.2% or 0.122
- For women: 14.8% or 0.148

To find the difference in the proportions living in poverty between men and women in 2015, simply subtract the two values:
\[\Delta p = p_w - p_m = 0.148 - 0.122 = 0.026\]
This indicates that there is a 2.6% higher proportion of women living in poverty compared to men, based on the sample data.
Standard Error Calculation
The standard error measures the variability of a sampling distribution. It's like a buffer zone that tells us how "spread out" our sample is around the true population proportion. For each group, the formula for calculating the standard error of a proportion is:
\[SE = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}}\]
Here:
  • \(p\) is the proportion of the sample.
  • \(n\) represents the sample size.

We need to calculate the standard error for both men and women:
  • For men: \[ SE_m = \sqrt{\frac{0.122(1-0.122)}{1200}} = 0.0096 \]
  • For women: \[ SE_w = \sqrt{\frac{0.148(1-0.148)}{1000}} = 0.0104 \]

The smaller the standard error, the more reliable our sample proportion is as an estimator of the true population proportion.
U.S. Census Data Analysis
The U.S. Census Bureau collects a broad array of data to understand various demographics, including poverty statistics. For this problem, data from the U.S. Census in 2015 showed the poverty rates for men and women. These statistics are typically gathered from a large and representative sample
— in this case, the sample sizes were 1,200 for men and 1,000 for women.

Such data analysis helps us understand disparities and target interventions. Estimating the difference in poverty rates between genders assists policymakers in making informed decisions. Large samples like these help reduce error and ensure accurate reflection of national trends.
Using census data provides a concrete, reliable foundation for statistical analysis, as it is derived from comprehensive, nationwide surveys.
Estimation in Statistics
Estimation in statistics involves predicting or inferring a population parameter based on sample data collected. The primary goal of estimation is to obtain useful information about a population from a subset using statistical inference techniques.

In this problem, we are estimating the difference in poverty proportions between men and women. A confidence interval gives us a range of values that is likely to contain the population parameter. For our analysis, we used a 90% confidence interval.
- **Calculate Margin of Error**: Multiply the standard error of the difference by the critical z-value for 90% confidence: \[ ME = 1.645 \times 0.0142 = 0.0234 \]- **Calculate Confidence Interval**: Subtract and add margin of error from the difference: \[ CI = (0.026 - 0.0234, 0.026 + 0.0234) = (0.0026, 0.0494) \]

This means we are 90% confident that the true difference in poverty rates between men and women in 2015 falls between 0.26% and 4.94%. This interval estimation helps provide more context to our statistical findings and lend statistical weight to the observed differences.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

In a survey of mobile phone owners, \(53 \%\) of iPhone users and \(42 \%\) of Android phone users indicated that they upgraded their phones at least every two years ("Americans Split on How Often They Upgrade Their Smartphones," July 8, \(2015,\) www.gallup.com, retrieved December 15,2016 ). The reported percentages were based on large samples that were thought to be representative of the population of iPhone users and the population of Android phone users. The sample sizes were 8234 for the iPhone sample and 6072 for the Android phone sample. Suppose you want to decide if there is evidence that the proportion of iPhone owners who upgrade their phones at least every two years is greater than this proportion for Android phone users. (Hint: See Example 11.5.) a. What hypotheses should be tested to answer the question of interest? b. Are the two samples large enough for the large-sample test for a difference in population proportions to be appropriate? Explain. c. Based on the following Minitab output, what is the value of the test statistic and what is the value of the associated \(P\) -value? If a significance level of 0.01 is selected for the test, will you reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis? d. Interpret the result of the hypothesis test in the context of this problem.

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