/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 30 How accurate are DNA paternity t... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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How accurate are DNA paternity tests? By comparing the DNA of the baby and the DNA of a man that is being tested, one maker of DNA paternity tests claims that their test is \(100 \%\) accurate if the man is not the father and \(99.99 \%\) accurate if the man is the father (IDENTIGENE, www.dnatesting .com/paternity-test-questions/paternity-test-accuracy/, retrieved November 16,2016 ). a. Consider using the result of this DNA paternity test to decide between the following two hypotheses: \(H_{0}:\) a particular man is not the father \(H:\) a particular man is the father In the context of this problem, describe Type I and Type II errors. (Although these are not hypotheses about a population characteristic, this exercise illustrates the definitions of Type I and Type II errors.) b. Based on the information given, what are the values of \(\alpha\), the probability of a Type I error, and \(\beta\), the probability of a Type II error?

Short Answer

Expert verified
In the context of a DNA paternity test, a Type I error occurs when we mistakenly identify a man as the father when he is not, and a Type II error occurs when we mistakenly identify a man as not being the father when he actually is. Based on the information given, the probability of a Type I error (\(\alpha\)) is \(0\%\) or \(0\), and the probability of a Type II error (\(\beta\)) is \(0.01\%\) or \(0.0001\).

Step by step solution

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a. Understanding Type I and Type II errors

In the context of this DNA paternity test, Type I and Type II errors are defined as follows: - Type I error: It occurs when we reject the null hypothesis (\(H_{0}\): The man is not the father) when it's actually true. In this case, we would be telling a man that he is the father, but he is not. - Type II error: It occurs when we fail to reject the null hypothesis (\(H_{0}\): The man is not the father) when it's actually false. In this case, we would be telling a man that he is not the father, when he actually is.
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b. Calculating the values of \(\alpha\) and \(\beta\)

Based on the information given in the statement, let us calculate the values of \(\alpha\) and \(\beta\): - The probability of a Type I error (\(\alpha\)): The test is \(100\%\) accurate if the man is not the father. Therefore, the probability that the test will incorrectly identify him as the father is \(100\% - 100\% = 0\%\) accurate. Therefore, \(\alpha = 0\%\) or \(\alpha = 0\). - The probability of a Type II error (\(\beta\)): The test is \(99.99\%\) accurate if the man is the father. Therefore, the probability that the test will incorrectly identify him as not the father is \(100\% - 99.99\% = 0.01\%\) accurate. Therefore, \(\beta = 0.01\%\) or \(\beta = 0.0001\). So, the values of \(\alpha = 0\) and \(\beta = 0.0001\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Type I and Type II Errors in DNA Paternity Testing
In the realm of DNA paternity tests, Type I and Type II errors play a crucial role in the accuracy and reliability of the results. The worst nightmare in a paternity test is to report the wrong man as the father (Type I error), or to declare a man not the father when he actually is (Type II error).

Imagine the emotional distress and the potential legal consequences of such mistakes. It's not just about numbers; it’s about lives being affected. A Type I error, or false positive, in this context would mean that a non-father is incorrectly identified as the biological father. A man facing this error might experience unnecessary emotional, financial, and social pressures.

On the other hand, a Type II error, or false negative, implies that the biological father is wrongly excluded from paternity. This might deprive the child of their true heritage, support, and relationship with their father. These errors underscore the necessity for utmost accuracy in paternity testing, and they serve as a reminder of the potential human impact of statistical inaccuracies.
Hypothesis Testing Clarified Through DNA Paternity Tests
Hypothesis testing is a statistical method used to make decisions about a population parameter based on sample data. In the case of DNA paternity tests, the hypotheses are not about a population characteristic but about whether a specific individual is the father of a child.

The null hypothesis (H0) posits that the man in question is not the father, while the alternative hypothesis contends that he is. By setting a very high accuracy rate for these tests, manufacturers try to ensure that decision errors are minimized. However, the process of hypothesis testing is never devoid of risk, as it balances the probabilities of false positives and false negatives. Understanding these risks and how they are quantified helps in interpreting the results of such tests with critical judgement and an awareness of the inherent uncertainties.
Probability of Errors in Statistics
The probability of committing a Type I error is denoted by alpha (\r\(\r\alpha\r\)), whereas the probability of a Type II error is represented by beta (\r\(\r\beta\r\)). These probabilities express the likelihood of making mistakes in hypothesis testing due to the inherent variability in data and sampling methods.

In statistics, minimizing these probabilities is crucial for robust results. In paternity tests, for instance, a \r\(\r\alpha\r\) of 0% means there is no chance of accusing an innocent man, while a \r\(\r\beta\r\) of 0.01% indicates a tiny but existent risk of not recognizing the true father. Although the probabilities of such errors are designed to be low, the cruciality of their repercussions necessitates a deep understanding of these concepts and cautious interpretation by both statisticians and laymen alike.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Assuming a random sample from a large population, for which of the following null hypotheses and sample sizes is the large-sample \(z\) test appropriate? a. \(H_{0}: p=0.8, n=40\) b. \(H_{0}: p=0.4, n=100\) c. \(H_{0}: p=0.1, n=50\) d. \(H_{0}: p=0.05, n=750\)

Refer to the instructions given prior to Exercise \(10.57 .\) The paper "Pathological Video-Game Use Among Youth Ages 8 to 18: A National Study" (Psychological Science [2009]: \(594-601\) ) summarizes data from a random sample of 1178 students age 8 to \(18 .\) The paper reported that for the students in the sample, the mean amount of time spent playing video games was 13.2 hours per week. The researchers were interested in using the data to estimate the mean amount of time spent playing video games for students age 8 to 18 .

Explain why a \(P\) -value of 0.002 would be interpreted as strong evidence against the null hypothesis.

In a survey of 1000 women age 22 to 35 who work full-time, 540 indicated that they would be willing to give up some personal time in order to make more money (USA TODAY, March 4,2010 ). The sample was selected to be representative of women in the targeted age group. a. Do the sample data provide convincing evidence that a majority of women age 22 to 35 who work fulltime would be willing to give up some personal time for more money? Test the relevant hypotheses using \(\alpha=0.01\) b. Would it be reasonable to generalize the conclusion from Part (a) to all working women? Explain why or why not.

In a hypothesis test, what does it mean to say that the null hypothesis was rejected?

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