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Let X 5 the time it takes a read/write head to locate the desired record on a computer disk memory device once the head has been positioned over the correct track. If the disks rotate once every \({\bf{25}}\) milliseconds, a reasonable assumption is that X is uniformly distributed on the interval\(\left( {{\bf{0}},{\rm{ }}{\bf{25}}} \right)\). a. Compute\({\bf{P}}\left( {{\bf{10}} \le {\bf{X}} \le {\bf{20}}} \right)\). b. Compute \({\bf{P}}\left( {{\bf{X}} \le {\bf{10}}} \right)\). c. Obtain the cdf F(X). d. Compute E(X) and \({\sigma _X}\).

Short Answer

Expert verified

\(\begin{array}{l}(a)\;0.4\\(b)\;0.6\\(c)\;F(x) = \left\{ {\begin{array}{*{20}{l}}0&{x < 0}\\{0.04x}&{0 \le x \le 25}\\1&{x > 25}\end{array}} \right.\\(d)\;12.5,7.22\end{array}\)

Step by step solution

01

Definition of Plausibility Probability

In contrast to probability and possibility, which both point to objective reality, plausibility is a totally subjective concept: plausibility can only exist because it is borne by human reasoning. To put it another way, something is only feasible if someone believes it is.

02

Given Data

It is given that X is the time it takes a read/write head to locate the desired record on a computer disk memory device once the head has been positioned over the correct track.

It is also given that X is uniformly distributed on the interval\((0,25)\). Hence value of\(f(x)\)in this interval is equal to:

\(f(x) = \frac{1}{{25 - 0}} = \frac{1}{{25}} = 0.04\)

and zero otherwise. Then\(f(x)\)can be written as:

\(f(x) = \left\{ {\begin{array}{*{20}{l}}{0.04}&{0 < x < 5}\\0&{{\rm{ otherwise }}}\end{array}} \right.\)

03

Calculation for the determination of probability in part a.

(a) We have to compute\(P(10 \le X \le 20)\)

\(\begin{array}{l}P(10 \le X \le 20) = \int_{10}^{20} 0 .04 \cdot dx\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = 0.04(x)_{10}^{20}\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = 0.04(20 - 10)\\P(10 \le X \le 20) = 0.4\end{array}\)

Proposition: Let\({\rm{X}}\)be a continuous\({\rm{rv}}\)with\({\rm{pdf}}\,{\rm{f}}({\rm{x}})\)and\(cdf\;\,{\rm{F}}({\rm{x}})\). Then for any two numbers a and b with\(a < b\),

\(P(a \le X \le b) = \int_a^b f (x) \cdot dx\)

04

Step 4: Calculation for the determination of probability in part b.

(b) We have to compute\(P(10 \le X)\)

\(\begin{array}{l}P(10 \le X) = \int_{10}^\infty f (x) \cdot dx\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = \int_{10}^{25} {(0.04)} \cdot dx + \int_{25}^\infty {(0)} \cdot dx\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = 0.04(x)_{10}^{25}\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = 0.04(25 - 10)\\P(10 \le X) = 0.6\end{array}\)

Proposition: Let X be a continuous rv with\(pdff(x)\)and\(cdf\;F(x)\). Then for any number a,

\(P(a \le X) = \int_a^\infty f (x) \cdot dx\)

05

Step 5: Calculation for the determination of probability in part c.

(c) We recall the definition of cdf of a continuous variable.

Definition: The cumulative distribution function F(x) for a continuous rv, X is defined for every number x by

\(F(x) = P(X \le x) = \int_{ - \infty }^x f (y) \cdot dy\)

we have already derived pdf\(f(x)\)as:

\(f(x) = \left\{ {\begin{array}{*{20}{l}}{0.04}&{0 < x < 25}\\0&{{\rm{ otherwise }}}\end{array}} \right.\)

For any number x between 0 and 25

\(\begin{array}{l}F(X) = \int_0^x {(0.04)} \cdot dy\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = (0.04)\int_0^x d y\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = 0.04(y)_0^x\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = 0.04(x - 0)\\F(X) = 0.04x\end{array}\)

Thus,\(F(X)\)can be given as:

\(F(x) = \left\{ {\begin{array}{*{20}{l}}0&{x < 0}\\{0.04x}&{0 \le x \le 25}\\1&{x > 25}\end{array}} \right.\)

06

Step 6: Calculation for the determination of probability in part d.

(d) We have already derived pdf\(f(x)\)as:

\(f(x) = \left\{ {\begin{array}{*{20}{l}}{0.04}&{0 < x < 25}\\0&{{\rm{ otherwise }}}\end{array}} \right.\)

The mean value of the given distribution can be given as:

\(\begin{array}{l}E(X) = \int_{ - \infty }^\infty x \cdot f(x) \cdot dx\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = \int_0^{25} x \cdot (0.04) \cdot dx\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = 0.04\int_0^{25} x \cdot dx\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = 0.04\left( {\frac{{{x^2}}}{2}} \right)_0^{25}\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = 0.04\left( {\frac{{{{(25)}^2}}}{2} - \frac{{{{(0)}^2}}}{2}} \right)\\E(X) = 12.5\end{array}\)

Definition: The expected or mean value of a continuous\(rv\,\;X\)with pdf\(f(x)\)is

\(\mu = E(X) = \int_{ - \infty }^\infty x \cdot f(x) \cdot dx\)

07

Step 7: Calculation for the determination of probability in part d.

For the pdf\(f(x)\); to calculate variance, we first calculate\(E\left( {{X^2}} \right)\):

\(\begin{array}{l}E\left( {{X^2}} \right) = \int_{ - \infty }^\infty {{x^2}} \cdot f(x) \cdot dx\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = \int_0^{25} {{x^2}} \cdot (0.04) \cdot dx\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = (0.04)\int_0^{25} {{x^2}} \cdot dx\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = (0.04)\left( {\frac{{{x^3}}}{3}} \right)_0^{25}\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = \frac{{0.04}}{3}\left( {{{(25)}^3} - {{(0)}^3}} \right)\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = \frac{{0.04}}{3}(15625)\\E\left( {{X^2}} \right) = 208.33\end{array}\)

As we have already calculated $E(X)$, hence we use following proposition:

Proposition:\({\sigma _X} = \sqrt {E\left( {{X^2}} \right) - E{{(X)}^2}} \)

Using this, we can write:

\(\begin{array}{l}{\sigma _X} = \sqrt {208.33 - {{(12.5)}^2}} \\{\sigma _X} = 7.22\end{array}\)

Definition: If\({\rm{X}}\)is a continuous rv with pdf\(f(x)\)and\(h(X)\)is any function of\({\rm{X}}\), then

\(E(h(x)) = \int_{ - \infty }^\infty h (x) \cdot f(x) \cdot dx\)

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The article 鈥淎 Model of Pedestrians鈥 Waiting Times for Street Crossings at Signalized Intersections鈥 (Transportation Research, \({\rm{2013: 17--28}}\)) suggested that under some circumstances the distribution of waiting time X could be modelled with the following pdf:

\({\rm{f(x;\theta ,\tau ) = }}\left\{ {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}}{\frac{{\rm{\theta }}}{{\rm{\tau }}}{{{\rm{(1 - x/\tau )}}}^{{\rm{\theta - 1}}}}}&{{\rm{0}} \le {\rm{x < \tau }}}\\{\rm{0}}&{{\rm{ otherwise }}}\end{array}} \right.\)

a. Graph \({\rm{f(x;\theta ,80)}}\) for the three cases \({\rm{\theta = 4,1}}\) and \({\rm{.5}}\) (these graphs appear in the cited article) and comment on their shapes. b. Obtain the cumulative distribution function of X. c. Obtain an expression for the median of the waiting time distribution. d. For the case \({\rm{\theta = 4,\tau = 80}}\) calculate \({\rm{P(50}} \le {\rm{X}} \le {\rm{70)}}\) without at this point doing any additional integration.

Consider the pdf for total waiting time \({\rm{Y}}\) for two buses

\({\rm{f(y) = }}\left\{ {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}}{\frac{{\rm{1}}}{{{\rm{25}}}}{\rm{y}}}&{{\rm{0拢 y < 5}}}\\{\frac{{\rm{2}}}{{\rm{5}}}{\rm{ - }}\frac{{\rm{1}}}{{{\rm{25}}}}{\rm{y}}}&{{\rm{5拢 y拢 10}}}\\{\rm{0}}&{{\rm{ otherwise }}}\end{array}} \right.\)

introduced.

a. Compute and sketch the cdf of \({\rm{Y}}\). (Hint: Consider separately \({\rm{0 拢 y < 5}}\) and \({\rm{5拢 y拢 10}}\) in computing\({\rm{F(y)}}\). A graph of the pdf should be helpful.)

b. Obtain an expression for the \({\rm{(100p)}}\)th percentile. (Hint: Consider separately \({\rm{0 < p < }}{\rm{.5}}\) and\({\rm{.5 < p < 1}}\).)

c. Compute \({\rm{E(Y)}}\)and\({\rm{V(Y)}}\). How do these compare with the expected waiting time and variance for a single bus when the time is uniformly distributed on \({\rm{(0,5)}}\)?

The defect length of a corrosion defect in a pressurized steel pipe is normally distributed with mean value \({\bf{30}}{\rm{ }}{\bf{mm}}\) and standard deviation \({\bf{7}}.{\bf{8}}{\rm{ }}{\bf{mm}}\) (suggested in the article 鈥淩eliability Evaluation of Corroding Pipelines Considering Multiple Failure Modes and Time Dependent Internal Pressure鈥 (J. of Infrastructure Systems, \({\bf{2011}}:{\rm{ }}{\bf{216}}--{\bf{224}})).\)

a. What is the probability that defect length is at most \({\bf{20}}{\rm{ }}{\bf{mm}}\)? Less than 20 mm?

b. What is the \({\bf{75th}}\) percentile of the defect length distribution鈥攖hat is, the value that separates the smallest \({\bf{75}}\% \)of all lengths from the largest \({\bf{25}}\% \)?

c. What is the \({\bf{15th}}\) percentile of the defect length distribution?

d. What values separate the middle \({\bf{80}}\% \) of the defect length distribution from the smallest \({\bf{10}}\% \)and the largest \({\bf{10}}\% \)?

The article "A Probabilistic Model of Fracture in Concrete and Size Effects on Fracture Toughness" (Magazine of Concrete Res., \({\rm{1996: 311 - 320}}\)) gives arguments for why fracture toughness in concrete specimens should have a Weibull distribution and presents several histograms of data that appear well fit by superimposed Weibull curves. Consider the following sample of size \({\rm{n = 18}}\) observations on toughness for high strength concrete (consistent with one of the histograms); values of \({{\rm{p}}_{\rm{i}}}{\rm{ = (i - }}{\rm{.5)/18}}\) are also given.

\(\begin{array}{*{20}{c}}{{\rm{ Observation }}}&{{\rm{.47}}}&{{\rm{.58}}}&{{\rm{.65}}}&{{\rm{.69}}}&{{\rm{.72}}}&{{\rm{.74}}}\\{{{\rm{p}}_{\rm{i}}}}&{{\rm{.0278}}}&{{\rm{.0833}}}&{{\rm{.1389}}}&{{\rm{.1944}}}&{{\rm{.2500}}}&{{\rm{.3056}}}\\{{\rm{ Observation }}}&{{\rm{.77}}}&{{\rm{.79}}}&{{\rm{.80}}}&{{\rm{.81}}}&{{\rm{.82}}}&{{\rm{.84}}}\\{{{\rm{p}}_{\rm{i}}}}&{{\rm{.3611}}}&{{\rm{.4167}}}&{{\rm{.4722}}}&{{\rm{.5278}}}&{{\rm{.5833}}}&{{\rm{.6389}}}\\{{\rm{ Observation }}}&{{\rm{.86}}}&{{\rm{.89}}}&{{\rm{.91}}}&{{\rm{.95}}}&{{\rm{1}}{\rm{.01}}}&{{\rm{1}}{\rm{.04}}}\\{{{\rm{p}}_{\rm{i}}}}&{{\rm{.6944}}}&{{\rm{.7500}}}&{{\rm{.8056}}}&{{\rm{.8611}}}&{{\rm{.9167}}}&{{\rm{.9722}}}\end{array}\)

Construct a Weibull probability plot and comment.

The lifetime \({\rm{X}}\) (in hundreds of hours) of a certain type of vacuum tube has a Weibull distribution with parameters \({\rm{\alpha = 2}}\)and \({\rm{\beta = 3}}\). Compute the following:

a. \({\rm{E(X)}}\) and \({\rm{V(X)}}\)

b. \(P(X \le 6)\)

c. \(P(1.5 \le X \le 6)\)

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