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Scientists collect data on the blood cholesterol levels (milligrams per deciliter of blood) of a random sample of 24 laboratory rats. A \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the mean blood cholesterol level \(\mu\) is 80.2 to 89.8. Which of the following would cause the most worry about the validity of this interval? (a) There is a clear outlier in the data. (b) A stemplot of the data shows a mild right skew. (c) You do not know the population standard deviation \(\sigma\). (d) The population distribution is not exactly Normal. (e) None of these are a problem when using a \(t\) interval.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The presence of outliers (option a) would cause the most worry.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Confidence Interval

A confidence interval provides a range in which we can be fairly certain the true mean of a population lies, based on data from a sample. For this exercise, a 95% confidence interval for the mean blood cholesterol level is given as 80.2 to 89.8.
02

Review the Assumptions for Validity of the Interval

To determine what would affect the validity of the confidence interval, review the assumptions required for constructing this interval: the sample should be a simple random sample, the data should be approximately normally distributed, and the sample size should be adequately large if the population distribution is not normal.
03

Evaluate the Options

Consider the possible issues: - **(a) Outliers:** Outliers can have a substantial impact on the mean and thus affect the confidence interval. - **(b) Right Skew:** Mild skewness does not necessarily invalidate normality assumption, especially with a larger sample size. - **(c) Unknown Population Standard Deviation:** The use of a t-distribution rather than a normal distribution accounts for this. - **(d) Non-Normal Population Distribution:** The t-distribution is robust to non-normality, particularly with moderate-to-large sample sizes. - **(e) None:** This option suggests all mentioned issues are accounted for.
04

Determine the Most Concerning Factor

Outliers (option a) are often the most concerning for validity as they can disproportionately influence statistical measures and invalidate assumptions of normality, even if other issues such as skewness or unknown population standard deviation are present. Since this can lead to an inaccurate mean estimate, it thus potentially invalidates the interval.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

t-distribution
The t-distribution plays a crucial role when constructing confidence intervals, especially when the population standard deviation is unknown. It is used as a substitute for the normal distribution under these circumstances. The t-distribution is very similar to the normal distribution but has heavier tails. This means it is more prone to capturing outliers if present.
As sample size increases, the t-distribution approaches the normal distribution. It's important to note that the shape of a t-distribution is dependent on the degrees of freedom, which are determined by the sample size minus one (n-1). For example, with 24 rats in the exercise, the degrees of freedom would be calculated as 23. Understanding the use of the t-distribution underpins constructing a reliable confidence interval without knowing the population standard deviation.
outliers
Outliers are values in a data set that are significantly different from the rest of the data. They can severely affect the results of statistical analyses, particularly affecting the mean and therefore the confidence interval being considered.
Outliers can distort the interpretation of data, sometimes leading to misleading conclusions or predictions. In the context of the exercise, an outlier, like a very high or very low cholesterol level compared to other values, could skew the confidence interval estimate significantly. Because the t-distribution penalizes these outliers more due to its heavier tails, care must be taken when outliers are present in the data to ensure valid results.
To check for outliers, visual representations like box plots or stem plots can be helpful. Techniques such as removing non-representative outliers or using robust statistical measures help mitigate their impact on analysis.
normality assumption
The assumption of normality is essential when constructing confidence intervals, especially with smaller sample sizes. If the data distribution is normal, it allows for more straightforward application of statistical techniques like the t-distribution.
For example, a stem plot showing mild right skewness, as mentioned in the exercise, suggests the data might not be perfectly normal. However, the t-distribution is quite robust to violations of normality, particularly with larger samples.
When the sample size is large, the Central Limit Theorem applies, suggesting that even if the population distribution is not normal, the sampling distribution will be approximately normal. To ensure validity, it's essential to check that the sample is normally distributed or large enough to invoke the Central Limit Theorem, allowing for construction of a reliable confidence interval.
sample size
Sample size is a critical factor when constructing a confidence interval. It affects both the width of the interval and the reliability of the estimates made from the sample data.
Larger samples tend to provide more accurate and tight confidence intervals because they offer a better representation of the population. The effects of non-normality and presence of outliers are also less pronounced in larger sample sizes. For instance, in the exercise, a sample size of 24 offers a moderate degree of confidence, allowing for the t-distribution's robustness to take effect.
However, in smaller samples, it's crucial to check assumptions like normality more closely, as a small number of outliers can have a more substantial impact on the analysis. Ensuring that the sample size is sufficient helps in making more confident claims about the population's true parameters.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Check whether each of the conditions is met for calculating a confidence interval for the population proportion \(\bar{p}\). The small round holes you often see in sea shells were drilled by other sea creatures, who ate the former dwellers of the shells. Whelks often drill into mussels, but this behavior appears to be more or less common in different locations. Researchers collected whelk eggs from the coast of Oregon, raised the whelks in the laboratory, then put each whelk in a container with some delicious mussels. Only 9 of 98 whelks drilled into a mussel. \({ }^{11}\) The researchers want to estimate the proportion \(p\) of Oregon whelks that will spontaneously drill into mussels.

A Pew Intemet and American Life Project survey found that 392 of 799 randomly selected teens reported texting with their friends every day. (a) Calculate and interpret a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the population proportion \(p\) that would report texting with their friends every day. (b) Is it plausible that the true proportion of American teens who text with their friends every day is \(0.45 ?\) Use your result from part (a) to support your answer.

A researcher plans to use a random sample of families to estimate the mean monthly family income for a large population. The researcher is deciding between a \(95 \%\) confidence level and a \(99 \%\) confidence level. Compared to a \(95 \%\) confidence interval, a \(99 \%\) confidence interval will be (a) narrower and would involve a larger risk of being incorrect. (b) wider and would involve a smaller risk of being incorrect. (c) narrower and would involve a smaller risk of being incorrect. (d) wider and would involve a larger risk of being incorrect. (e) wider and would have the same risk of being incorrect.

Determine whether we can safely use a \(t^{*}\) critical value to calculate a confidence interval for the population mean in each of the following settings. (a) We collect data from a random sample of adult residents in a state. Our goal is to estimate the overall percent of adults in the state who are college graduates. (b) The coach of a college men's basketball team records the resting heart rates of the 15 team members. We use these data to construct a confidence interval for the mean resting heart rate of all male students at this college. (c) Do teens text more than they call? To find out, an \(\mathrm{AP}^{8}\) Statistics class at a large high school collected data on the number of text messages and calls sent or received by each of 25 randomly selected students. The Fathom boxplot below displays the difference (texts - calls) for each student.

Check whether each of the conditions is met for calculating a confidence interval for the population proportion \(\bar{p}\). Glenn wonders what proportion of the students at his school believe that tuition is too high. He interviews an SRS of 50 of the 2400 students at his college. Thirty-eight of those interviewed think tuition is too high.

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