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Check whether each of the conditions is met for calculating a confidence interval for the population proportion \(\bar{p}\). The small round holes you often see in sea shells were drilled by other sea creatures, who ate the former dwellers of the shells. Whelks often drill into mussels, but this behavior appears to be more or less common in different locations. Researchers collected whelk eggs from the coast of Oregon, raised the whelks in the laboratory, then put each whelk in a container with some delicious mussels. Only 9 of 98 whelks drilled into a mussel. \({ }^{11}\) The researchers want to estimate the proportion \(p\) of Oregon whelks that will spontaneously drill into mussels.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Normal conditions for CI are not met, \(n \cdot \hat{p} < 10\).

Step by step solution

01

Identify Sample Proportion

To estimate the population proportion, we first identify the sample proportion \(\hat{p}\). This is calculated as the number of successful events (whelks that drilled into mussels) divided by the total number of trials (whelks in the experiment). Here, \(\hat{p} = \frac{9}{98} \approx 0.0918\).
02

Check Normality Condition

For the normal approximation to hold when calculating a confidence interval for a population proportion, the sample size must meet specific conditions, ensuring the sample proportion is approximately normally distributed. These conditions are: \(n \cdot \hat{p} \geq 10\) and \(n \cdot (1-\hat{p}) \geq 10\). Calculate these as follows:\(n \cdot \hat{p} = 98 \cdot 0.0918 \approx 9.00\), and \(n \cdot (1-\hat{p}) = 98 \cdot (1 - 0.0918) \approx 89.00\).
03

Interpret Normality Condition Results

The conditions required are not satisfied since \(n \cdot \hat{p}\) is not greater than or equal to 10 (since \(9 < 10\)), although \(n \cdot (1-\hat{p})\) is greater than 10. This implies the sample size is too small for the normal approximation's accuracy, suggesting a potential bias in confidence interval estimates. An alternative method may be needed.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportion
When conducting experiments or surveys, understanding the concept of sample proportion is crucial. The sample proportion (\(\hat{p}\)) gives us a snapshot of the behavior or characteristic from the sample that was studied. In the Whelks Experiment, the researchers observed 98 whelks, out of which 9 drilled into mussels. Here, the sample proportion is calculated using the formula: \[\hat{p} = \frac{\text{number of successful outcomes}}{\text{total sample size}}\]For this experiment, \(\hat{p} = \frac{9}{98} \approx 0.0918\). This proportion can be interpreted as approximately 9.18% of the whelks in the sample exhibited this behavior. Understanding the sample proportion is fundamental as it's used to make inferences about the broader population behavior.
Normality Condition
When calculating confidence intervals, it's essential to ensure that certain conditions are met to justify the use of the normal approximation. These criteria ensure that our sample proportion follows a distribution that allows for such estimates. Two primary conditions need to be met:
  • \(n \cdot \hat{p} \geq 10\)
  • \(n \cdot (1-\hat{p}) \geq 10\)
In the Whelks Experiment, we use these calculations to see if the normal approximation holds:- \(n \cdot \hat{p} = 98 \cdot 0.0918 \approx 9.00\)- \(n \cdot (1-\hat{p}) = 98 \cdot (1 - 0.0918) \approx 89.00\)The second condition is met, but the first is not, as 9 is less than 10. Failing to meet these conditions means the normal approximation won't be precise, impacting the accuracy of the confidence interval.
Population Proportion
The population proportion (\(p\)) is the parameter researchers aim to estimate. In the case of the Whelks Experiment, it represents the true proportion of all Oregon whelks that will spontaneously drill into mussels. Unlike the sample proportion, which only applies to the whelks tested in the study, the population proportion is about the entire population of interest.Estimating the population proportion involves taking a sample from the population, calculating the sample proportion, and then using statistical methods like confidence intervals to infer or estimate the population's behavior. The goal is to understand whether the observed sample behavior generalizes to the entire population.
Sample Size
Sample size plays a critical role in determining the accuracy and reliability of statistical estimates. A larger sample size generally provides more reliable estimates because it is more likely to represent the true population characteristics. In the Whelks Experiment, researchers used a sample size of 98 whelks.The adequacy of a sample size is especially important for meeting the normality condition when working with proportions. For estimating a population proportion accurately using confidence intervals, your sample size must be large enough such that the conditions \(n \cdot \hat{p} \geq 10\) and \(n \cdot (1-\hat{p}) \geq 10\) are satisfied. If these conditions aren't met, as in this case with \(n \cdot \hat{p} < 10\), the confidence interval might not be accurate.
Whelks Experiment
The Whelks Experiment provides an interesting case study in applying statistical principles to real-world situations. Researchers aimed to understand a natural behavior of whelks from Oregon: their tendency to drill into mussels. To estimate this behavior, they raised whelks in a controlled laboratory environment and then observed their drilling behavior when placed with mussels. With only 9 out of 98 whelks drilling, the sample proportion was found to be approximately 0.0918. The experiment not only highlights the process of calculating proportions, but also the challenges faced with small sample sizes and unmet conditions for normal approximations. These issues point to the need for possibly larger samples or alternative statistical methods for greater accuracy in estimation.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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