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Check whether each of the conditions is met for calculating a confidence interval for the population proportion \(\bar{p}\). In the National AIDS Behavioral Surveys sample of 2673 adult heterosexuals, \(0.2 \%\) had both received a blood transfusion and had a sexual partner from a group at high risk of AlDS. We want to estimate the proportion \(p\) in the population who share these two risk factors.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The conditions for the confidence interval are met.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Sample Proportion

First, we need to determine the sample proportion \(\hat{p}\). We have \(0.2\%\) of 2673 adult heterosexuals who had both received a blood transfusion and had a sexual partner from a high-risk group. Calculate \(\hat{p}\) using the formula: \(\hat{p} = \frac{0.2\%}{100} \times 2673\). That gives us \(\hat{p} = \frac{5.346}{2673} \approx 0.002\), considering \(5.346\) rounds to about 5 people for practical purposes, \(\hat{p} = \frac{5}{2673} \approx 0.00187\).
02

Check Conditions for Confidence Interval

There are two main conditions to check: the sample size and the number of successes. We need \(n\hat{p} \geq 5\) and \(n(1 - \hat{p}) \geq 5\). Here, we calculate: \(n\hat{p} = 2673 \times 0.002 = 5.346\) and \(n(1 - \hat{p}) = 2673 \times 0.99813 = 2667.65\). Both conditions are satisfied because \(n\hat{p} \approx 5.346 \geq 5\) and \(n(1 - \hat{p}) \approx 2667.65 \geq 5\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Population Proportion
The population proportion, denoted as \( p \), is a fundamental concept in statistics. It represents the true proportion of individuals in the entire population that possess a specific characteristic. In our context, we want to estimate the proportion of adults in the entire population who have both received a blood transfusion and have a high-risk sexual partner.
Understanding the population proportion is essential because we often only have access to a sample, not the entire population. As such, we aim to estimate \( p \) using data available from the sample. It serves as our best educated guess for what the actual proportion might be in the full population.
Given the exercise, since the entire population cannot feasibly be surveyed, a sample analysis provides a practical solution for estimation.
Sample Proportion
The sample proportion, denoted as \( \hat{p} \), is our calculated proportion based on the sample data. It provides a direct estimate of the population proportion.
In our case, we determined \( \hat{p} \) by considering a sample of 2673 adult heterosexuals. Out of these, around 0.2% had both characteristics of interest. By calculating \( \hat{p} = \frac{0.2\%}{100} \times 2673 \), we simplified it to the number of individuals, yielding \( \hat{p} = \frac{5}{2673} \approx 0.00187 \).
This sampling gives us a snapshot of the larger population. However, since it is based on a sample, there will always be some degree of uncertainty involved, which is why confidence intervals are necessary.
Statistical Conditions
To calculate a confidence interval for a population proportion accurately, certain statistical conditions must be met. These conditions ensure that our estimate is reliable and meaningful. Specifically, the focus is on the sample size and the number of successes in the sample.
Two key conditions must be satisfied:
  • The product of the sample size and the sample proportion (\( n\hat{p} \)) must be at least 5.
  • The product of the sample size and the complement of the sample proportion (\( n(1-\hat{p}) \)) must also be at least 5.
In our exercise, we found:
  • \( n\hat{p} = 2673 \times 0.002 = 5.346 \),
  • \( n(1-\hat{p}) = 2673 \times 0.99813 = 2667.65 \).
Both values are above or equal to 5, meaning these conditions are met. This verification is crucial for ensuring the appropriateness of proceeding with constructing a confidence interval.
Sample Size
Sample size is a critical component in inferential statistics and significantly impacts the precision of the confidence interval. When estimating a population proportion, the sample size (denoted as \( n \)) influences the variability of the sample proportion. A larger sample size typically results in a more accurate estimate of the population proportion.
In the given exercise, our sample size is 2673 which is relatively large. This large sample size helps to decrease the margin of error in our estimation and increases the likelihood that our sample proportion is representative of the population.
It's important to note that while a large sample size is beneficial, it must also be manageable and practical for the situation. However, having a sample size that is too small might lead to unreliable estimates. Hence, ensuring an appropriately sized sample is essential for meaningful statistical analysis.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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Find \(z^{\circ}\) for a \(93 \%\) confidence interval using Table A or your calculator. Show your method

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