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91Ó°ÊÓ

A researcher plans to use a random sample of families to estimate the mean monthly family income for a large population. The researcher is deciding between a \(95 \%\) confidence level and a \(99 \%\) confidence level. Compared to a \(95 \%\) confidence interval, a \(99 \%\) confidence interval will be (a) narrower and would involve a larger risk of being incorrect. (b) wider and would involve a smaller risk of being incorrect. (c) narrower and would involve a smaller risk of being incorrect. (d) wider and would involve a larger risk of being incorrect. (e) wider and would have the same risk of being incorrect.

Short Answer

Expert verified
(b) wider and would involve a smaller risk of being incorrect.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Confidence Intervals

Confidence intervals (CIs) represent a range within which we expect the true population parameter, such as the mean, to lie. The level of confidence (e.g., 95% or 99%) indicates how certain we are that the interval contains the true parameter.
02

Relationship Between Confidence Level and Interval Width

As the confidence level increases, the confidence interval becomes wider. This is because higher confidence levels require more certainty, thus expanding the range of potential values to ensure the true mean is captured more reliably.
03

Evaluating the Risk of Incorrect Estimation

A higher confidence level (such as 99%) decreases the risk of the interval not containing the true mean (lower Type I error), but it makes the interval wider. This means we trade off some precision (narrow interval) for confidence.
04

Determining the Correct Answer

Comparing the options given: A 99% confidence interval will be wider because it requires more certainty about capturing the true mean, but it involves a smaller risk of being incorrect. Therefore, option (b) is correct: "wider and would involve a smaller risk of being incorrect."

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Confidence Level
The confidence level is an essential aspect of confidence intervals that expresses the degree of certainty we have in our estimate. When a researcher decides on a confidence level, they are choosing how sure they want to be that their interval estimate includes the true population parameter.
For example, if the confidence level is set at 95%, it means that if the same population is sampled multiple times, about 95% of the confidence intervals calculated from the samples will contain the true mean. Increasing the confidence level to 99% means increasing the certainty that the true parameter is within the interval, albeit at a cost.
The trade-off for higher confidence is a wider interval, which reflects greater uncertainty in precisely pinpointing the population parameter. Therefore, the choice of confidence level can impact the conclusions drawn from data analysis and should be considered carefully based on the study’s requirements.
Population Parameter
A population parameter is a value that describes a certain characteristic of a population. When researchers talk about parameters, they often refer to values like the population mean or variance, which are not directly observed but are estimated from sample data.
Estimating a population parameter accurately is crucial in statistics. Since it's usually impractical to observe the entire population, sampling becomes the method of choice. Researchers use random samples to make inferences about the population parameter. The accuracy of these estimates can be communicated through confidence intervals.
By constructing a confidence interval, we are attempting to provide a range that offers plausible values for the population parameter. This approach allows researchers to gauge the reliability of their estimates and provides an understanding of the possible variability around the parameter estimate, highlighting the interval’s importance in statistical inference.
Interval Width
Interval width is a critical concept in understanding the trade-offs in statistical estimation. It refers to the range within the upper and lower bounds of a confidence interval. The width of the confidence interval is influenced by several factors, including the confidence level, the sample size, and the variability in the data.
  • Higher confidence levels increase the interval width because they account for a larger range of values to ensure that the true parameter is captured more reliably.
  • A larger sample size generally leads to narrower intervals since it reduces uncertainty by providing more data about the population.
  • Greater variability in the data itself will also result in wider intervals as more variations in the sample require a broader range to maintain a certain confidence level.
Understanding interval width helps in consciously balancing the need for precision against the need for certainty in capturing the true population parameter. This balance is integral to designing studies and interpreting the resulting data.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

You have measured the systolic blood pressure of an SRS of 25 company employees. A \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the mean systolic blood pressure for the employees of this company is \((122,138) .\) Which of the following statements is true? (a) \(95 \%\) of the sample of employees have a systolic blood pressure between 122 and 138 . (b) \(95 \%\) of the population of employees have a systolic blood pressure between 122 and 138 . (c) If the procedure were repeated many times, \(95 \%\) of the resulting confidence intervals would contain the population mean systolic blood pressure. (d) If the procedure were repeated many times, \(95 \%\) of the time the population mean systolic blood pressure would be between 122 and 138 . (e) If the procedure were repeated many times, \(95 \%\) of the time the sample mean systolic blood pressure would be between 122 and 138 .

PTC is a substance that has a strong bitter taste for some people and is tasteless for others. The ability to taste \(\mathrm{PTC}\) is inherited. About \(75 \%\) of Italians can taste \(\mathrm{PTC}\), for example. You want to estimate the proportion of Americans who have at least one Italian grandparent and who can taste PTC. (a) How large a sample must you test to estimate the proportion of PTC tasters within 0.04 with \(90 \%\) confidence? Answer this question using the \(75 \%\) estimate as the guessed value for \(\hat{p}\). (b) Answer the question in part (a) again, but this time use the conservative guess \(\hat{p}=0.5 .\) By how much do the two sample sizes differ?

Young people have a better chance of full-time employment and good wages if they are good with numbers. How strong are the quantitative skills of young Americans of working age? One source of data is the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) Young Adult Literacy Assessment Survey, which is based on a nationwide probability sample of households. The NAEP survey includes a short test of quantitative skills, coveringmainly basic arithmetic and the ability to apply it to realistic problems. Scores on the test range from 0 to \(500 .\) For example, a person who scores \(233 \mathrm{can}\) add the amounts of two checks appearing on a bank deposit slip; someone scoring 325 can determine the price of a meal from a menu; a person scoring 375 can transform a price in cents per ounce into dollars per pound. Suppose that you give the NAEP test to an SRS of 840 people from a large population in which the scores have mean 280 and standard deviation \(\sigma=60\). The mean \(\bar{x}\) of the 840 scores will vary if you take repeated samples. (a) Describe the shape, center, and spread of the sampling distribution of \(\bar{x}\). (b) Sketch the sampling distribution of \(\bar{x}\). Mark its mean and the values \(1,2,\) and 3 standard deviations on either side of the mean. (c) According to the \(68-95-99.7\) rule, about \(95 \%\) of all values of \(\bar{x}\) lie within a distance \(m\) of the mean of the sampling distribution. What is \(m ?\) Shade the region on the axis of your sketch that is within \(m\) of the mean. (d) Whenever \(\bar{x}\) falls in the region you shaded, the population mean \(\mu\) lies in the confidence interval \(\bar{x} \pm m\). For what percent of all possible samples does the interval capture \(\mu ?\)

Determine the point estimator you would use and calculate the value of the point estimate. Tonya wants to estimate what proportion of the seniors in her school plan to attend the prom. She interviews an SRS of 50 of the 750 seniors in her school and finds that 36 plan to go to the prom.

The body mass index (BMI) of all American young women is believed to follow a Normal distribution with a standard deviation of about 7.5. How large a sample would be needed to estimate the mean BMI \(\mu\) in this population to within ±1 with \(99 \%\) confidence? Show your work.

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