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The Harvard College Alcohol Study finds that 67%of college students support efforts to "crack down on underage drinking." The study took a random sample of almost 15,000students, so the population proportion who support a crackdown is close to p=0.67The administration of a local college surveys an SRS of 100students and finds that 62support a crackdown on underage drinking.

(a) Suppose that the proportion of all students attending this college who support a crackdown is 67%, the same as the national proportion. What is the probability that the proportion in an SRS of 100students is as small as or smaller than the result of the administration鈥檚 sample? Follow the four-step process.

(b) A writer in the college鈥檚 student paper says that 鈥渟upport for a crackdown is lower at our school than nationally.鈥 Write a short letter to the editor explaining why the survey does not support this conclusion

Short Answer

Expert verified

(a) P(p^0.62)=0.1446

(b) Since the probability is greater than 0.05, it is likely to obtain a sample with sample proportion of 0.62if the true population proportion is 0.67or 67%. Thus there is not sufficient evidence of a lower proportion.

Step by step solution

01

Part(a) Step 1: Given Information

Given

p=67%=0.67

x=62

n=100

02

Part(a) Step 2: Explanation

The sample proportion is the number of successes divided by the sample size:

p^=xn=62100=0.62

The mean of the sampling distribution of p^is equal to the population proportion p:

localid="1650095153168" p^=p=0.67

The standard deviation of the sampling distribution of p^is:

localid="1650095171714" p^=p(1-p)n=0.67(1-0.67)1000.0470213

The z-score is the value decreased by the mean, divided by the standard deviation:

localid="1650095190764" z=x-=0.62-0.670.0470213-1.06

Determine the corresponding probability using table A:

localid="1650095208985" P(p^0.62)=P(z<-1.06)=0.1446

03

Part(b) Step 1: Given Information

Given

p=67%=0.67

x=62

n=100

04

Part(b) Step 2: Explanation

The sample proportion is the number of successes divided by the sample size:

p^=xn=62100=0.62

The mean of the sampling distribution of p^is equal to the population proportion p:

localid="1650095264695" p^=p=0.67

The standard deviation of the sampling distribution of p^is:

localid="1650095291522" p^=p(1-p)n=0.67(1-0.67)1000.0470213

The z-score is the value decreased by the mean, divided by the standard deviation:

localid="1650095308205" z=x-=0.62-0.670.0470213-1.06

Determine the corresponding probability using table A:

localid="1650095325932" P(p^0.62)=P(z<-1.06)=0.1446

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