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Suppose that you have torn a tendon and are facing surgery to repair it. The orthopedic surgeon explains the risks to you. Infection occurs in3%such operations, the repair fails in 14%, and both infection and failure occur together 1%at the time. What is the probability that the operation is successful for someone who has an operation that is free from infection?

(a) 0.0767

(b) 0.8342

(c) 0.8400

(d) 0.8660

(e)0.9900

Short Answer

Expert verified

The probability that the operation is successful for someone who has an operation that is free from infection is option (d)0.8660.

Step by step solution

01

Given information

The percentage of infection in operation is 3%

The percentage of repair fails in operation is 14%

The percentage of both infection and failure in operation is 1%

To find the probability that the operation is successful for someone who has an operation that is free from infection.

02

Explanation

Let's note that I=Infection

R=Repair fail

localid="1650258605804" P(I)=3%=0.03P(R)=14%=0.14P(IandR)=1\%=0.01

Using the complement rule

P(notA)=1-P(A)

We get

localid="1650258616160" P(notRandnotI)=P(not(RorI))=1-P(RorI)=1-P(R)-P(I)+P(RandO)P(notI)=1-P(I)=1-0.03=0.97=1-0.14-0.03+0.01=0.84

03

Probability calculation

The conditional probability is given as

P(AB)=P(AandB)P(B)

We want to find the probability of a successful operation given that the operation was free of infection

P(notRnotI)=P(notRand notI)P(notI)=0.840.970.8660.

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