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Your mail-order company advertises that it ships 90%of its orders within three working days. You select an SRS of 100of the 5000orders received in the past week for an audit. The audit reveals that 86of these orders were shipped on time.

(a) If the company really ships 90%of its orders on time, what is the probability that the proportion in an SRS of 100orders is as small as the proportion in your sample or smaller? Follow the four-step process.

(b) A critic says, 鈥淎ha! You claim 90%, but in your sample, the on-time percentage is lower than that. So the 90%claim is wrong.鈥 Explain in simple language why your probability calculation in (a) shows that the result of the sample does not refute the 90%claim.

Short Answer

Expert verified

(a) P(p^0.86)=0.0918

(b) Since the probability is greater than 0.05, it is likely to obtain a sample with sample proportion of 0.86if the true population proportion is 0.90or 90%. Thus the claim could be correct.

Step by step solution

01

Part(a) Step 1: Given Information

Given

p=90%=0.90

x=86

n=100

02

Part(a) Step 2: Explanation

The sample proportion is the number of successes divided by the sample size:

p^=xn=86100=0.86

The mean of the sampling distribution of p^is equal to the population proportion p:

localid="1650094798455" p^=p=0.90

The standard deviation of the sampling distribution of p^is:

localid="1650094821910" p^=p(1-p)n=0.90(1-0.90)100=0.03

The z-score is the value decreased by the mean, divided by the standard deviation:

localid="1650094847207" z=x-=0.86-0.900.03-1.33

Determine the corresponding probability using table A:

localid="1650094869728" P(p^0.86)=P(z<-1.33)=0.0918

03

Part(b) Step 1: Given Information

Given

p=90%=0.90

x=86

n=100

04

Part(b) Step 2: Explanation

The sample proportion is the number of successes divided by the sample size:

p^=xn=86100=0.86

The mean of the sampling distribution of p^is equal to the population proportion p:

localid="1650094921335" p^=p=0.90

The standard deviation of the sampling distribution of p^is:

localid="1650094942237" p^=p(1-p)n=0.90(1-0.90)100=0.03

The z-score is the value decreased by the mean, divided by the standard deviation:

localid="1650094966222" z=x-=0.86-0.900.03-1.33

Determine the corresponding probability using table A:

localid="1650094986566" P(p^0.86)=P(z<-1.33)=0.0918

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