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Young adults living at home A surprising number of young adults (ages 19 to 25) still live in their parents鈥 homes. A random sample by the National Institutes of Health included 2253 men and 2629 women in this age group.\(^{11}\) The survey found that 986 of the men and 923 of the women lived with their parents. (a) Construct and interpret a 99% confidence interval for the difference in population proportions (men minus women). (b) Does your interval from part (a) give convincing evidence of a difference between the population proportions? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The 99% confidence interval does not include zero, indicating a significant difference in proportions.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate Sample Proportions

First, find the sample proportions of men and women living with their parents. For men, the sample proportion \( \hat{p}_1 \) is given by \( \hat{p}_1 = \frac{986}{2253} \) and for women, the sample proportion \( \hat{p}_2 \) is given by \( \hat{p}_2 = \frac{923}{2629} \). Calculate these values to use in constructing the confidence interval.
02

Find the Difference in Sample Proportions

Subtract the sample proportion of women from the sample proportion of men to find the difference in sample proportions. This difference \( \hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2 \) will be the point estimate for the confidence interval.
03

Calculate Standard Error for Difference in Proportions

Calculate the standard error (SE) for the difference in sample proportions using the formula:\[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}_1 (1 - \hat{p}_1)}{n_1} + \frac{\hat{p}_2 (1 - \hat{p}_2)}{n_2}} \]where \( n_1 = 2253 \) and \( n_2 = 2629 \). Substitute the values for \( \hat{p}_1 \) and \( \hat{p}_2 \) calculated in Step 1.
04

Determine the Critical Value

For a 99% confidence interval, find the critical value (z*) corresponding to the desired level of confidence from the standard normal distribution. This value is typically found in the z-table and is approximately 2.576.
05

Calculate the Confidence Interval

Use the formula for the confidence interval for the difference in proportions:\[ (\hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2) \pm z^* \times SE \]Substitute the values from Steps 2, 3, and 4 to find the confidence interval.
06

Interpret the Confidence Interval

Interpret the results of the confidence interval. If the interval includes 0, it means there isn't a significant difference in the population proportions. If it does not include 0, there is a significant difference.
07

Evidence of a Difference

Based on whether the confidence interval includes zero, determine if there is convincing evidence of a difference between the proportions of young men and women living with their parents.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Difference in Population Proportions
The difference in population proportions refers to the comparison between the proportions from two distinct groups within a population. In this context, we are looking at the proportion of young adults living at home among men and women. By calculating the sample proportions for each group, we obtain estimates of how many individuals in each category typically live with their parents.

To understand the difference between these two groups, we subtract the sample proportion of women living at home from that of men. This operation gives us a point estimate, which acts as the central figure for constructing a confidence interval. Essentially, the difference tells us how much more or less one group is, on average, than the other in the context of the behavior being studied (living at home).

In practical terms, if the difference is positive, it implies a higher proportion of men than women live at home. Conversely, a negative difference indicates higher proportion of women, but without a confidence interval, it is hard to say how meaningful this difference is.
Sample Proportion
A sample proportion is a statistical term used to describe the ratio of successes to the total number of observations in a sample. For this problem, the sample proportion acts as an estimate of the true proportion of the population.

For example, the sample proportion of men, denoted as \( \hat{p}_1 \), is calculated by taking the number of men living at home (986) and dividing it by the total number of men surveyed (2253). The result indicates approximately what fraction of men, in this group, still reside with their parents. Similarly, for women, \( \hat{p}_2 \) is obtained through the same method: dividing the number of women living at home (923) by the total number of women surveyed (2629).

Understanding sample proportions is crucial since they serve as the foundation for estimating differences and variability within the population as a whole. They act as building blocks for calculating differences in population proportions and eventually the confidence intervals.
Standard Error
Standard error measures the variability or spread of the sample proportion estimates when comparing two groups. It is integral when constructing confidence intervals for the difference in proportions.

To calculate the standard error for our specific scenario, we use the following formula:
\[SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}_1 (1 - \hat{p}_1)}{n_1} + \frac{\hat{p}_2 (1 - \hat{p}_2)}{n_2}}\]
where \( _1 \) and \( _2 \) are the sample sizes for men and women, respectively, and \( \hat{p}_1 \) and \( \hat{p}_2 \) are their respective sample proportions.

This calculated value reflects the uncertainty associated with our estimate of the difference in population proportions. A smaller standard error suggests more precise estimates, meaning less variability in the sample proportions. By incorporating this value into the confidence interval formula, we can advertise the potential variation in our estimates and ascertain how closely our sample reflects the true population.
Critical Value
The critical value, often denoted as \( z^* \), represents a threshold from the standard normal distribution used to calculate confidence intervals. This particular value helps ensure that our interval estimate for the difference in population proportions meets a specified level of confidence.

For a 99% confidence interval, the critical value comes from a z-table, representing the z-score needed to achieve this specific reliability. In our exercise scenario, this critical value is approximately 2.576.

By multiplying the critical value with the standard error, we determine the margin of error for our estimates. The confidence interval itself is calculated by taking the point estimate of the difference in sample proportions and adding and subtracting this margin of error from it.

The role of the critical value is key for adjusting our interval estimates to reflect a desired confidence level. In essence, it tells us how much uncertainty is tolerable for our results to remain within a certain range of confidence.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Multiple choice: Select the best answer for Exercises 67 to 70. One major reason that the two-sample t procedures are widely used is that they are quite robust. This means that (a) t procedures do not require that we know the standard deviations of the populations. (b) t procedures work even when the Random, Normal, and Independent conditions are violated. (c) t procedures compare population means, a comparison that answers many practical questions. (d) confidence levels and \(P\)-values from the \(t\) procedures are quite accurate even if the population distribution is not exactly Normal. (e) confidence levels and \(P\)-values from the t procedures are quite accurate even if outliers and strong skewness are present.

Explain why the conditions for using two-sample z procedures to perform inference about \(p_{1}-p_{2}\) are not met in the settings of Exercises 7 through 10 . Don鈥檛 drink the water! The movie A Civil Action (Touchstone Pictures, 1998) tells the story of a major legal battle that took place in the small town of Woburn, Massachusetts. A town well that supplied water to eastern Woburn residents was contaminated by industrial chemicals. During the period that residents drank water from this well, 16 of the 414 babies born had birth defects. On the west side of Woburn, 3 of the 228 babies born during the same time period had birth defects.

Multiple choice: Select the best answer for Exercises 29 to 32. A sample survey interviews SRSs of 500 female college students and 550 male college students. Each student is asked whether he or she worked for pay last summer. In all, 410 of the women and 484 of the men say 鈥淵es.鈥 Exercises 29 to 31 are based on this survey. The pooled sample proportion who worked last summer is about (a) \(\hat{p}_{\mathrm{C}}=1.70 . \quad(\mathrm{d}) \hat{p}_{\mathrm{C}}=0.85\) (b) \(\hat{p}_{\mathrm{C}}=0.89 . \quad\) (e) \(\hat{p}_{\mathrm{C}}=0.82\) (c) \(\hat{p}_{\mathrm{C}}=0.88\)

Paired or unpaired? In each of the following settings, decide whether you should use paired \(t\) procedures or two-sample t procedures to perform inference. Explain your choice.\(^{43}\) (a) To compare the average weight gain of pigs fed two different rations, nine pairs of pigs were used. The pigs in each pair were littermates. A coin toss was used to decide which pig in each pair got Ration A and which got Ration B. (b) A random sample of college professors is taken. We wish to compare the average salaries of male and female teachers. (c) To test the effects of a new fertilizer, 100 plots are treated with the new fertilizer, and 100 plots are treated with another fertilizer. A computer鈥檚 random number generator is used to determine which plots get which fertilizer.

Exercises 23 through 26 involve the following setting. Some women would like to have children but cannot do so for medical reasons. One option for these women is a procedure called in vitro fertilization (IVF), which involves injecting a fertilized egg into the woman鈥檚 uterus. Prayer and pregnancy Two hundred women who were about to undergo IVF served as subjects in an experiment. Each subject was randomly assigned to either a treatment group or a control group. Women in the treatment group were intentionally prayed for by several people (called intercessors) who did not know them, a process known as intercessory prayer. The praying continued for three weeks following IVF. The intercessors did not pray for the women in the control group. Here are the results: 44 of the 88 women in the treatment group got pregnant, compared to 21 out of 81 in the control group.\(^{17}\) Is the pregnancy rate significantly higher for women who received intercessory prayer? To find out, researchers perform a test of \(H_{0} : p_{1}=p_{2}\) versus \(H_{a} : p_{1}>p_{2},\) where \(p_{1}\) and \(p_{2}\) are the actual pregnancy rates for women like those in the study who do and don't receive intercessory prayer, respectively. (a) Name the appropriate test and check that the conditions for carrying out this test are met. (b) The appropriate test from part (a) yields a P-value of 0.0007. Interpret this P-value in context. (c) What conclusion should researchers draw at the \(\alpha=0.05\) significance level? Explain. (d) The women in the study did not know if they were being prayed for. Explain why this is important.

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