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Discuss how each of the following factors affects the width of the confidence interval for \(P\) : a. The confidence level b. The sample size c. The value of \(\hat{p}\)

Short Answer

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a. An increase in the confidence level widens the confidence interval. b. An increase in sample size narrows the confidence interval. c. The width of the confidence interval decreases as \(\hat{p}\) approaches 0 or 1 and is widest when \(\hat{p} = 0.5\).

Step by step solution

01

Effect of Confidence Level on CI Width

The confidence level corresponds to the degree of certainty about the range where the actual parameter lies. A higher confidence level results in a wider confidence interval. Keeping the sample size and \(\hat{p}\) constant, if the confidence level increases, say from 90% to 95%, then the width of the confidence interval will also increase.
02

Effect of Sample Size on CI Width

The sample size (\(n\)) inversely affects the width of the confidence interval. If the sample size increases, the confidence interval becomes narrower. This is because there is less variability when a larger sample is taken, leading to more precise estimates. Thus, with other factors constant, increasing the sample size will decrease the width of the CI.
03

Effect of the Value of \(\hat{p}\) on CI Width

The value of the estimated proportion \(\hat{p}\) can also influence the width of the CI. As \(\hat{p}\) approaches 0 or 1, the width of the confidence interval decreases. When \(\hat{p}\) is at its extreme values, the confidence interval will be smallest. On the other hand, when \(\hat{p}\) is around 0.5, the confidence interval is widest. Hence, as \(\hat{p}\) increases or decreases from 0.5, the width of the confidence interval will also decrease.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Effect of Confidence Level
The confidence level is a crucial component in statistical analysis that represents how sure we can be about the interval containing the true population parameter. As we seek more certainty—say, wanting to be 95% confident instead of 90%—we have to accept a trade-off. This trade-off is manifested in the width of the confidence interval (CI). Essentially, higher confidence levels demand wider intervals.

Think of it this way: if you cast a wider net, you're more likely to catch the fish you're after—the true population proportion, in this case. To make sure our interval captures the population proportion, the endpoints of the CI spread further apart as our confidence requirements increase. Consequently, a 99% confidence level will result in an even broader interval than a 95% confidence level, which in turn is broader than a 90% confidence level, given that all other variables remain constant.
Sample Size Effect
When considering the sample size, it's helpful to understand the concept of 'variability'. Smaller sample sizes tend to produce more varied, less reliable results, whereas larger samples lead to more stability and predictability in estimates of the population parameter.

So, what does this mean for the width of the confidence interval? When the sample size increases, the estimate of the population parameter becomes more precise, and the range of values within which the true parameter lies narrows. This inverse relationship means that by increasing the sample size, other factors being constant, the confidence interval becomes tighter; hence, it has a reduced width. This is a key strategy researchers use when they wish to obtain more precise estimates without changing the confidence level.
Estimated Proportion (\textbackslash hat{p})
The estimated proportion, denoted by \(\hat{p}\), reflects our guess at the true proportion of a characteristic within the population based on our sample. The closer this value is to the extremes (0 or 1), the narrower the confidence interval becomes.

The rationale behind this is related to the distribution of proportions. When \(\hat{p}\) is at 0.5, there's maximum uncertainty, as outcomes are equally likely, which results in a wide interval. As \(\hat{p}\) moves towards 0 or 1, the possible outcomes become more predictable and less spread out, leading to a more compact confidence interval. Therefore, understanding the influence of \(\hat{p}\) is essential when interpreting confidence intervals, as intervals centered around 0.5 will be the widest, and more narrow as \(\hat{p}\) deviates from this central value.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The formula used to compure a confidence interval for the mean of a normal population when \(n\) is small is $$ \bar{x} \pm(t \text { critical value }) \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}} $$ What is the appropriate \(t\) critical value for each of the following confidence levels and sample sizes? a. \(95 \%\) confidence, \(n=17\) b. \(90 \%\) confidence, \(n=12\) c. \(99 \%\) confidence, \(n=24\) d. \(90 \%\) confidence, \(n=25\) e. \(90 \%\) confidence, \(n=13\) f. \(95 \%\) confidence, \(n=10\)

Why is an unbiased statistic generally preferred over a biased statistic for estimating a population characteristic? Does unbiasedness alone guarantee that the estimate will be close to the true value? Explain. Under what circumstances might you choose a biased statistic over an unbiased statistic if two statistics are available for estimating a population characteristic?

In a survey of 1000 randomly selected adults in the United States, participants were asked what their most favorite and what their least favorite subject was when they were in school (Associated Press, August 17 . 2005)\(.\) In what might seem like a contradiction, math was chosen more often than any other subject in both categories! Math was chosen by 230 of the 1000 as the favorite subject, and it was also chosen by 370 of the 1000 as the least favorite subject. a. Construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of U.S. adults for whom math was the favorite subject in school. b. Construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of U.S. adults for whom math was the least favorite subject.

The authors of the paper "Driven to Distraction" (Psychological Science 12001\(]=462-466\) ) describe an experiment to evaluate the effect of using a cell phone on reaction time, Subjects were asked to perform a simulated driving task while talking on a cell phone. While performing this task, occasional red and green lights flashed on the computer screen. If a green light flashed, subjects were to continue driving, but if a red light flashed, subjects were to brake as quickly as possible and the reaction time (in msec) was recorded. The following summary statistics are based on a graph that appeared in the paper: \(n=48 \quad \bar{x}=530 \quad s=70\) a. Construct and interpret a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for \(\mu,\) the mean time to react to a red light while talking on a cell phone. What assumption must be made in order to generalize this confidence interval to the population of all drivers? b. Suppose that the researchers wanted to estimate the mean reaction time to within 5 msec with \(95 \%\) confidence. Using the sample standard deviation from the study described as a preliminary estimate of the standard deviation of reaction times, compute the

The study "Digital Footprints" (Pew Internet \& American Life Project, www.pewinternet.org. 2007\()\) reported that \(47 \%\) of Internet users have searched for information about themselves online. The \(47 \%\) figure was based on a random sample of Internet users. For purposes of this exercise, suppose that the sample size was \(n=300\) (the actual sample size was much larger). Construct and interpret a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of Internet users who have searched online for information about themselves.

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