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An automobile manufacturer is considering using robots for part of its assembly process. Converting to robots is expensive, so it will be done only if there is strong evidence that the proportion of defective installations is less for the robots than for human assemblers. Let \(p\) denote the actual proportion of defective installations for the robots. It is known that the proportion of defective installations for human assemblers is 0.02 . a. Which of the following pairs of hypotheses should the manufacturer test? $$ H_{0}: p=0.02 \text { versus } H_{a}: p<0.02 $$ or $$ H_{0}: p=0.02 \text { versus } H_{a}: p>0.02 $$ Explain your choice. b. In the context of this exercise, describe Type 1 and Type II errors. c. Would you prefer a test with \(\alpha=0.01\) or \(\alpha=0.10 ?\) Explain your reasoning.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The correct pair of hypotheses to test is \(H_{0}: p = 0.02\) versus \(H_{a}: p < 0.02\) since the manufacturer wants to assess if the proportion of defective installations for robots is lower than that for humans. Type 1 error is concluding that the robots have a lower proportion of defective installations when there is no difference in proportions, and Type 2 error is concluding that the robots do not have a lower proportion of defective installations when they do. In this context, given the high cost of investing in the robots, a test with a smaller significance level (\(\alpha = 0.01\)) is preferred. This choice represents a lower probability of making a Type 1 error (a more stringent rejection criterion) at the expense of a higher probability of making a Type 2 error.

Step by step solution

01

Choose the correct pair of hypotheses

In this case, the manufacturer wants to test if the proportion of defective installations for robots \((p)\) is less than the proportion for human assemblers \((0.02)\). Therefore, the correct pair of hypotheses are: $$ H_{0}: p = 0.02 \text{ versus } H_{a}: p < 0.02 $$
02

Define Type 1 and Type 2 errors

In the context of this exercise, Type 1 and Type 2 errors can be defined as the following: Type 1 Error: Rejecting the null hypothesis \(H_{0}\) when it is true. In this context, it means concluding that the robots have a lower proportion of defective installations when, in fact, there is no difference in the proportions. Type 2 Error: Failing to reject the null hypothesis \(H_{0}\) when it is false. In this context, it means concluding that the robots do not have a lower proportion of defective installations when, in fact, they do.
03

Choose between \(\alpha = 0.01\) and \(\alpha = 0.10\)

The choice of \(\alpha\) (the significance level) represents a trade-off between Type 1 and Type 2 errors and determines the probability of making a Type 1 error. A lower \(\alpha\) value implies a lower probability of making a Type 1 error at the expense of a higher probability of making a Type 2 error, and vice versa. In this context, a Type 1 error is concluding that the robots have a lower proportion of defective installations when, in fact, there is no difference in the proportions. This mistake could lead to increased costs, as the manufacturer would invest in the expensive robots without any improvement in the quality of their installations. A Type 2 error is concluding that the robots do not lead to a lower proportion of defective installations when, in fact, they do. This could lead to missed opportunities for efficiency and quality improvement gains. Given the high cost of investing in the robots and the need for strong evidence, it would be reasonable to prefer a test with a smaller \(\alpha\) value, such as \(\alpha = 0.01\), which would represent a lower probability of making a Type 1 error (i.e., a more stringent rejection criterion).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null and Alternative Hypotheses
When conducting hypothesis testing, the core framework is set up by defining the null hypothesis (\(H_0\)) and the alternative hypothesis (\(H_a\) or \(H_1\)). The null hypothesis is a statement of no effect or no difference, and it serves as a default assumption for the test. In the context of the automobile manufacturer, the null hypothesis is \(H_{0}: p = 0.02\), suggesting that there is no difference between the proportions of defective installations made by robots and human assemblers.

The alternative hypothesis, on the other hand, challenges this assumption and posits what we are attempting to show evidence for. The correct alternative hypothesis for our scenario is the one-sided \(H_{a}: p < 0.02\), indicating that the robots are expected to have a lower proportion of defective installations than humans. The selection of the alternative hypothesis is crucial because it defines the direction of the test and what constitutes evidence against the null hypothesis.

In hypothesis testing, we never 'prove' a hypothesis. Instead, we assess the evidence against the null and determine if there is sufficient evidence to reject it in favor of the alternative. This process allows us to infer, within a certain level of confidence, whether our data suggests that there is a statistically significant effect or difference.
Type 1 and Type 2 Errors
Understanding the potential errors made during hypothesis testing is essential. A Type 1 error, also known as a 'false positive', happens when the null hypothesis is incorrectly rejected. It's like sounding a false alarm. For the manufacturer, a Type 1 error would mean deciding that the robots make fewer errors, when in reality, they do not reduce defective installations.

A Type 2 error, or a 'false negative', occurs when the null hypothesis is not rejected even though it should be. In the given scenario, this would mean missing out on the opportunity to improve installation quality by assuming the robots do not make a difference when they actually do.

The rates of these errors are inversely related; decreasing the chance of a Type 1 error typically increases the chance of committing a Type 2 error, and vice versa. When setting up a hypothesis test, one must consider the consequences of each error type. For instance, with expensive decisions such as purchasing robots, minimizing Type 1 errors may be prioritized to avoid unjustified investments.
Significance Level \(\alpha\)
The significance level, denoted by \(\alpha\), is a threshold that determines when we reject the null hypothesis. It represents the probability of committing a Type 1 error if the null hypothesis is true. For instance, an \(\alpha\) of 0.01 means there is a 1% chance of rejecting a true null hypothesis.

A lower \(\alpha\) level means that the evidence must be more striking to reject the null hypothesis, thus providing more protection against false positives. On the flip side, a higher \(\alpha\), such as 0.10, means it's easier to find significant results, but there's a greater risk of Type 1 errors.

Choosing the right significance level depends on the context and consequences of potential errors. The manufacturer faces a high-stakes decision, so a lower \(\alpha\) of 0.01 helps ensure that only strong evidence against the null hypothesis would prompt an investment in the new robotic process, thus safeguarding against costly Type 1 errors.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Researchers at the University of Washington and Harvard University analyzed records of breast cancer screening and diagnostic evaluations ("Mammogram Cancer Scares More Frequent Than Thought," USA TODAY, April 16,1998 ). Discussing the benefits and downsides of the screening process, the article states that although the rate of falsepositives is higher than previously thought, if radiologists were less aggressive in following up on suspicious tests, the rate of false-positives would fall, but the rate of missed cancers would rise. Suppose that such a screening test is used to decide between a null hypothesis of \(H_{0}:\) no cancer is present and an alternative hypothesis of \(H_{a}:\) cancer is present. (Although these are not hypotheses about a population characteristic, this exercise illustrates the definitions of Type I and Type II errors.) a. Would a false-positive (thinking that cancer is present when in fact it is not) be a Type I error or a Type II error? b. Describe a Type I error in the context of this problem, and discuss the consequences of making a Type I error. c. Describe a Type II error in the context of this problem, and discuss the consequences of making a Type II error. d. Recall the statement in the article that if radiologists were less aggressive in following up on suspicious tests, the rate of false-positives would fall but the rate of missed cancers would rise. What aspect of the relationship between the probability of a Type I error and the probability of a Type II error is being described here?

Medical personnel are required to report suspected cases of child abuse. Because some diseases have symptoms that are similar to those of child abuse, doctors who see a child with these symptoms must decide between two competing hypotheses: \(H_{0}:\) symptoms are due to child abuse \(H:\) symptoms are not due to child abuse (Although these are not hypotheses about a population characteristic, this exercise illustrates the definitions of Type I and Type II errors.) The article "Blurred Line Between Illness, Abuse Creates Problem for Authorities" (Macon Telegraph, February \(28,\) 2000 ) included the following quote from a doctor in Atlanta regarding the consequences of making an incorrect decision: "If it's disease, the worst you have is an angry family. If it is abuse, the other kids (in the family) are in deadly danger." a. For the given hypotheses, describe Type I and Type II errors. b. Based on the quote regarding consequences of the two kinds of error, which type of error is considered more serious by the doctor quoted? Explain.

Explain why a \(P\) -value of 0.002 would be interpreted as strong evidence against the null hypothesis.

Occasionally, warning flares of the type contained in most automobile emergency kits fail to ignite. A consumer group wants to investigate a claim that the proportion of defective flares made by a particular manufacturer is higher than the advertised value of \(0.10 .\) A large number of flares will be tested, and the results will be used to decide between \(H_{0}: p=0.10\) and \(H_{a}: p>0.10,\) where \(p\) represents the actual proportion of defective flares made by this manufacturer. If \(H_{0}\) is rejected, charges of false advertising will be filed against the manufacturer. a. Explain why the alternative hypothesis was chosen to be \(H: p>0.10 .\) b. Complete the last two columns of the following table. (Hint: See Example 10.7 for an example of how this is done.)

Use the definition of the \(P\) -value to explain the following: a. Why \(H_{0}\) would be rejected if \(P\) -value \(=0.003\) b. Why \(H_{0}\) would not be rejected if \(P\) -value \(=0.350\)

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