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Suppose that there are \(n\) trials \(x_{1}, x_{2}, x_{n}\) from a Bernoulli process with parameter \(p\), the probability of a success. That is, the probability of \(r\) successes is given by \(\left(\begin{array}{l}n \\\ r\end{array}\right) p^{r}(1-p)^{n-F} .\) Work out the maximum likelihood estimator for the parameter \(p\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
The maximum likelihood estimator of \(p\) in a Bernoulli process is \(\hat{p} = \frac{\sum x_{i}}{n}\), which represents the sample mean of the observed values.

Step by step solution

01

Express the likelihood function

Construct a likelihood function first. Since the trials are independent Bernoulli trials, the likelihood function is expressed as the product of the probability mass function for each trial. It is written as \(\mathcal{L}(p) = \prod_{i=1}^{n} [p^{x_{i}}(1-p)^{1-x_{i}}]\), where \(x_{i}\) takes a value of either 1(success) or 0(failure). However, manipulating product notation can be challenging, so we adopt a logarithm to simplify, thereby converting the product into sum, resulting in Log likelihood function. The log-likelihood function \(\log \mathcal{L}(p) = \sum_{i=1}^{n} [x_{i} \log(p) + (1 - x_{i}) \log(1 - p)]\).
02

Take derivative of the log-likelihood

Differentiating the log likelihood function with respect to parameter \(p\), we get \(\log \mathcal{L}'(p) = \frac{\sum x_{i}}{p} - \frac{n - \sum x_{i}}{1-p}\).
03

Solve for Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) of parameter \(p\)

For obtaining Maximum Likelihood Estimator of the parameter \(p\), equate the derivative to zero and solve \(\log \mathcal{L}'(p) = \frac{\sum x_{i}}{p} - \frac{n - \sum x_{i}}{1-p} = 0\). Rearranging and simplifying, ultimately gets the MLE of \(p\) as \(\hat{p} = \frac{\sum x_{i}}{n}\), which is the sample mean of observed values. This indicates that the maximum likelihood estimate of probability of success in Bernoulli distribution is the sample mean.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Bernoulli Distribution
The Bernoulli distribution is a fundamental discrete probability distribution. It's often used to model experiments that have two possible outcomes, commonly referred to as "success" and "failure." In a Bernoulli process, each trial is independent of others, and the probability of success remains constant on each trial.
In mathematical terms, a random variable follows a Bernoulli distribution if it takes on the value 1 with probability \(p\) (representing success) and the value 0 with probability \(1-p\) (representing failure).
This simple yet powerful distribution forms the backbone for more complex distributions like the binomial distribution, which covers multiple Bernoulli trials. An understanding of Bernoulli distribution lays the groundwork for grasping other statistical models and methods used in analyzing binary data.
  • Two possible outcomes: success and failure
  • Probability of success \(p\), probability of failure \(1-p\)
  • Used in a wide variety of fields, including economics, medicine, and psychology.
Log-Likelihood Function
The log-likelihood function is a transformative way to simplify the process of dealing with probabilities, especially in statistical estimation like Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE).
When dealing with a likelihood function consisting of multiple factors, taking the logarithm helps convert the product of probabilities into a sum. This is particularly handy because sums are far easier to manage and differentiate compared to products.
For a Bernoulli process, the log-likelihood function simplifies the multiplication of probabilities into an additive form. In our case, the log-likelihood for a sequence of Bernoulli trials is: \[ \log \mathcal{L}(p) = \sum_{i=1}^{n} \left[x_i \log(p) + (1-x_i) \log(1-p)\right] \]
This simplification aids in the process of statistical inference by making it easier to derive analytical solutions for estimators.
  • Transforms products into summations for ease of mathematical manipulation
  • Essential in obtaining maximum likelihood estimators through differentiation
Sample Mean Estimation
Sample mean estimation is a process where the average of a set of samples is calculated, often used to imply a population mean. In the context of Bernoulli processes and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), the sample mean plays a crucial role.
After differentiating the log-likelihood function for a Bernoulli process, we find that setting the derivative equal to zero yields a neat formula for our parameter estimate. This parameter, the probability of success \(p\), is maximized when it is equal to the sample mean.
The maximum likelihood estimator for \(p\) in a Bernoulli distribution is given by:
\[ \hat{p} = \frac{\sum x_{i}}{n} \] Where \(\sum x_{i}\) is the total number of successes observed and \(n\) is the total number of trials.
This represents the average proportion of successes observed in the sample and exactly mirrors the intuitive understanding of an average.
  • Provides an unbiased estimate of the probability of success
  • Calculates as the mean number of successes over total trials
  • Used for parameter estimation in discrete models like Bernoulli and binomial distributions

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