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In a random sample of 1000 homes in a certain city, it is found that 228 are heated by oil. Find the \(99 \%,\) confidence interval for the: proportion of homes in this city that are heated by oil.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The 99% confidence interval for the proportion of homes in the city that are heated by oil is (0.198, 0.258)

Step by step solution

01

Calculate Sample Proportion

The sample proportion (\(p\)) is calculated as the number of successes (in this case, homes heated by oil) divided by the total number of observations. Therefore, \(p = 228 / 1000 = 0.228.\)
02

Find Z-Score

A Z-score is a statistical measurement that describes a value's relationship to the mean of a group of values. For a confidence level of 99%, the Z-score is approximately 2.576. This can be found in the standard Normal distribution table.
03

Calculate Standard Error

The standard error (\(SE\)) of the sample proportion is calculated using the formula: \(SE = sqrt{[p*(1-p)/n]}\) where, \(n\) is the number of observations. So, \(SE = sqrt{[0.228*(1-0.228)/1000]} = 0.014.\)
04

Calculate Confidence Interval

The 99% confidence interval is calculated using the formula: \(p \pm Z*SE\). Therefore, the confidence interval is \(0.228 \pm 2.576*0.014\), which results in (0.198, 0.258)

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportion
The Sample Proportion provides an estimate of a given characteristic within a population, based on a sample from that population. In the context of the given exercise, the sample proportion is denoted by \( p \). It represents the fraction of homes heated by oil out of the entire sampled group. To calculate this, you take the number of successes (homes with oil heating) and divide it by the total number of observations (homes sampled). Therefore, with 228 homes heated by oil out of a total of 1000 homes, the sample proportion is \( p = 228/1000 = 0.228 \).
Understanding the sample proportion is crucial, as it serves as the base from which other statistical inferences are drawn. It is essentially the baseline figure that will be adjusted by later calculations, like the Z-score and Standard Error, to find confidence intervals.
Z-Score
The Z-Score is a statistical tool used to determine how far—or how exceptional—a particular value is from the mean. It helps in understanding the position of a value, based on the distribution. In the exercise above, the Z-score is used to determine how confident we are about our interval estimation.
For a 99% confidence level, this Z-score is about 2.576. This value comes from statistical tables linked to the standard normal distribution. It shows how many standard deviations away a particular sample mean is from the true population mean. Using the right Z-score is vital for obtaining accurate confidence intervals, as it scales the standard error to a confidence level that adequately represents the data's reliability in estimating true population parameters.
Standard Error
Standard Error is a measure of the statistical accuracy of an estimate, indicating how much a sample proportion is expected to fluctuate. For our sample, it quantifies the variability of the sample proportion estimate of homes heated by oil. It narrows down how "spread out" the sample proportions will be around the average by considering the size of the sample and the proportion itself.
The formula used is \( SE = \sqrt{[p(1-p)/n]} \), where \( p \) is the sample proportion, and \( n \) is the number of observations. In this exercise, it comes out to \( SE = \sqrt{[0.228(1-0.228)/1000]} = 0.014 \). The smaller the standard error, the closer our sample mean is to the actual population mean, which makes our confidence interval estimate more precise.
Statistical Inference
Statistical Inference refers to the process of using data analysis to deduce properties of an underlying probability distribution. Essentially, it's the bridge that links sample data to the wider population. Through statistical inference, we can make educated guesses or predictions about a population based on sample data.
In this exercise, statistical inference allows us to construct a 99% confidence interval around the sample proportion. This interval gives us a range within which we expect the true population proportion of homes heated by oil to lie, 99% of the time. Running the calculations, the confidence interval becomes \( 0.228 \pm 2.576 \times 0.014 \), equating to (0.198, 0.258). This means we're 99% confident that between 19.8% and 25.8% of all homes in the city are heated by oil, based on our sample data.

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