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With domestic sources of building supplies running low several years ago, roughly 60,000 homes were built with imported Chinese drywall. According to the article 鈥淩eport Links Chinese Drywall to Home Problems鈥 (New York Times, Nov. 24, 2009), federal investigators identified a strong association between chemicals in the drywall and electrical problems, and there is also strong evidence of respiratory difficulties due to the emission of hydrogen sulphide gas. An extensive examination of \(51\) homes found that \(41\) had such problems. Suppose these \(51\) were randomly sampled from the population of all homes having Chinese drywall.

a. Does the data provide strong evidence for concluding that more than \(50\% \) of all homes with Chinese drywall have electrical/environmental problems? Carry out a test of hypotheses using \(\alpha = .10\).

b. Calculate a lower confidence bound using a confidence level of \(99\% \) for the percentage of all such homes that have electrical/environmental problems.

c. If it is actually the case that \(80\% \) of all such homes have problems, how likely is it that the test of (a) would not conclude that more than \(50\% \) do?

Short Answer

Expert verified

(a) There isn't enough evidence to back up the allegation that the more than\(50\% \)of all home with Chinese drywall have electrical/environmental problems.

(b) The lower confidence bound is\(0.6744\).

(c) The probability is \(\beta = 0.0073 = 0.73\% \).

Step by step solution

01

Define p-value in hypothesis testing.

The null hypothesis states that the population mean is equal to the value mentioned in the claim. If the null hypothesis is the claim, then the alternative hypothesis states the opposite of the null hypothesis.

\(\begin{array}{l}{H_0}:p = 0\\{H_a}:p \ne 0\end{array}\)

The formula for the value of the test statistic is given by,\(z = \frac{{\hat p - {p_0}}}{{\sqrt {\frac{{{p_0}\left( {1 - {p_0}} \right)}}{n}} }}\).

The sample proportion is calculated by dividing the number of successes by the sample size. \(\hat p = \frac{x}{n}\)

02

Test the appropriate hypothesis.

(a)

Let the given be:

\(\begin{array}{c}x = 41\\n = 51\\\alpha = 0.01\end{array}\)

Claim that the proportion is more than\(50\% \)or\(0.50\).

Sample proportion:

\(\begin{aligned}{c}\hat p &= \frac{x}{n}\\ &= \frac{{41}}{{51}}\\ &\approx 0.8039\end{aligned}\)

The value of the test-statistic:

\(\begin{aligned}{c}z &= \frac{{\hat p - {p_0}}}{{\sqrt {\frac{{{p_0}\left( {1 - {p_0}} \right)}}{n}} }}\\ &= \frac{{0.8039 - 0.50}}{{\sqrt {\frac{{0.50(1 - 0.50)}}{{51}}} }}\\ &\approx 4.34\end{aligned}\)

When the null hypothesis is true, the P-value is the chance of getting the test statistic's value, or a value that is more extreme. Using the normal probability table in the appendix, calculate the P-value.

\(\begin{aligned}{c}P &= P(Z > 4.34)\\ &= 1 - P(Z < 4.34)\\ &\approx 1 - 1\\ &= 0\end{aligned}\)

Since the P-value is smaller than the significance level\(\alpha \), then reject the null hypothesis:

\(P < 0.01 \Rightarrow R{\rm{eject }}{H_0}\)

There isn't enough evidence to back up the allegation that the more than \(50\% \) of all home with Chinese drywall have electrical/environmental problems.

03

Describe the margin of error.

(b)

Let\(c = 99\% = 0.99\). For confidence level\(1 - \alpha = 0.99\), determine\({z_\alpha } = {z_{0.01}}\)using the normal probability table in the appendix:\({z_\alpha } = 2.33\)

The margin of error:

\(\begin{aligned}{c}E &= {z_\alpha } \cdot \sqrt {\frac{{\hat p(1 - \hat p)}}{n}} \\ &= 2.33 \times \sqrt {\frac{{0.8039(1 - 0.8039)}}{{51}}} \\ &\approx 0.1295\end{aligned}\)

The boundaries of the confidence interval:

\(\begin{aligned}{c}\hat p - E &= 0.8039 - 0.1295\\ &= 0.6744\end{aligned}\)

The lower confidence bound is \(0.6744\).

04

Determine the probability.

(c)

Let: \(\begin{array}{l}{p_A} = 80\% = 0.80\\\alpha = 0.01\end{array}\)

Using the normal probability table in the appendix, find the z-score corresponding to a probability of\(1 - \alpha = 0.99\)(Note: take the complement because the test is right-sided):

\(z = 2.33\)

The population mean (of the hypothesis) is increased by the product of the z-score and the standard deviation to get the sample mean:

\(\begin{aligned}{c}\hat p &= p + z\sqrt {\frac{{p(1 - p)}}{n}} \\ &= 0.50 + 2.33\sqrt {\frac{{0.50(1 - 0.50)}}{{51}}} \\ &\approx 0.6631\end{aligned}\)

The z-value is the sample mean divided by the standard deviation, after subtracting the population mean (alternative mean).

\(\begin{aligned}{c}z &= \frac{{\hat p - {p_0}}}{{\sqrt {\frac{{{p_0}\left( {1 - {p_0}} \right)}}{n}} }}\\ &= \frac{{0.6631 - 0.80}}{{\sqrt {\frac{{0.80(1 - 0.80)}}{{51}}} }}\\ &\approx - 2.44\end{aligned}\)

When the null hypothesis is false, the probability of making a type II error is the probability of not rejecting the null hypothesis. Using the normal probability table in the appendix, calculate the chances of failing to reject the null hypothesis.

\(\begin{array}{c}\beta = P(Z < - 2.44)\\ = 0.0073\\ = 0.73\% \end{array}\)

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