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A manufacturer of nickel-hydrogen batteries randomly selects \(100\) nickel plates for test cells, cycles them a specified number of times, and determines that \(14\) of the plates have blistered.

a. Does this provide compelling evidence for concluding that more than \(10\% \) of all plates blister under such circumstances? State and test the appropriate hypotheses using a significance level of \(.05\). In reaching your conclusion, what type of error might you have committed?

b. If it is really the case that \(15\% \) of all plates blister under these circumstances and a sample size of \(100\) is used, how likely is it that the null hypothesis of part (a) will not be rejected by the level \(.05\) test? Answer this question for a sample size of 200.

c. How many plates would have to be tested to have \(\beta (.15) = 10\) for the test of part (a)?

Short Answer

Expert verified

(a) There isn't enough evidence to back up the allegation that more than\(10\% \)of all plates blister under such circumstances.

(b) For\(n = 100\), the value is\(\beta = 49.20\% \), and for\(n = 200\), the value is\(\beta = 27.43\% \).

(c) The number of plates is \(n = 362\).

Step by step solution

01

Define p-value in hypothesis testing.

The null hypothesis states that the population mean is equal to the value mentioned in the claim. If the null hypothesis is the claim, then the alternative hypothesis states the opposite of the null hypothesis.

\(\begin{array}{l}{H_0}:p = 0\\{H_a}:p \ne 0\end{array}\)

The formula for the value of the test statistic is given by,\(z = \frac{{\hat p - {p_0}}}{{\sqrt {\frac{{{p_0}\left( {1 - {p_0}} \right)}}{n}} }}\).

The sample proportion is calculated by dividing the number of successes by the sample size. \(\hat p = \frac{x}{n}\)

02

Test the appropriate hypothesis.

(a)

Let the given be:

\(\begin{array}{c}x = 14\\n = 100\\\alpha = 0.05\end{array}\)

Claim that the proportion is more than\(0.10\)or\(10\% \).

Sample proportion:

\(\begin{aligned}{c}\hat p &= \frac{x}{n}\\ &= \frac{{14}}{{100}}\\ &\approx 0.14\end{aligned}\)

The value of the test-statistic:

\(\begin{aligned}{c}z &= \frac{{\hat p - {p_0}}}{{\sqrt {\frac{{{p_0}\left( {1 - {p_0}} \right)}}{n}} }}\\ &= \frac{{0.14 - 0.10}}{{\sqrt {\frac{{0.10(1 - 0.10)}}{{100}}} }}\\ &\approx 1.33\end{aligned}\)

When the null hypothesis is true, the P-value is the chance of getting the test statistic's value, or a value that is more extreme. Using the normal probability table in the appendix, calculate the P-value.

\(\begin{aligned}{c}P &= P(Z > 1.33)\\ &= 1 - P(Z < 1.33)\\ &= 1 - 0.9082\\ &= 0.0918\end{aligned}\)

Since the P-value is smaller than the significance level\(\alpha \), then reject the null hypothesis:

\(P > 0.05 \Rightarrow {\rm{Fail to reject }}{H_0}\)

There isn't enough evidence to back up the allegation that more than \(10\% \) of all plates blister under such circumstances.

03

Describe the sample and the appropriate hypothesis.

(b)

Let: \(\begin{array}{l}{p_A} = 15\% = 0.15\\n = 100\end{array}\)

Claim that the proportion is more than\(0.10\)or\(10\% \).

Using the normal probability table in the appendix, find the z-score corresponding to a probability of\(1 - \alpha = 0.95\)(Note: take the complement because the test is right-sided):

\(z = 1.645\)

The population mean (of the hypothesis) is increased by the product of the z-score and the standard deviation to get the sample mean:

\(\begin{array}{c}\hat p = p + z\sqrt {\frac{{p(1 - p)}}{n}} \\ = 0.10 + 1.645\sqrt {\frac{{0.10(1 - 0.10)}}{{100}}} \\ \approx 0.14935\end{array}\)

The z-value is the sample mean divided by the standard deviation, after subtracting the population mean (alternative mean).

\(\begin{array}{c}z = \frac{{\hat p - {p_0}}}{{\sqrt {\frac{{{p_0}\left( {1 - {p_0}} \right)}}{n}} }}\\ = \frac{{0.14935 - 0.15}}{{\sqrt {\frac{{0.15(1 - 0.15)}}{{100}}} }}\\ \approx - 0.02\end{array}\)

When the null hypothesis is false, the probability of making a type II error is the probability of not rejecting the null hypothesis. Using the normal probability table in the appendix, calculate the chances of failing to reject the null hypothesis.

\(\begin{aligned}{c}\beta &= P(Z < - 0.02)\\ &= 0.4920\\ &= 49.20\% \end{aligned}\)

Now,\(n = 200\).

Using the normal probability table in the appendix, find the z-score corresponding to a probability of\(1 - \alpha = 0.95\)(Note: take the complement because the test is right-sided):

\(z = 1.645\)

The population mean (of the hypothesis) is increased by the product of the z-score and the standard deviation to get the sample mean:

\(\begin{aligned}{c}\hat p &= p + z\sqrt {\frac{{p(1 - p)}}{n}} \\ &= 0.10 + 1.645\sqrt {\frac{{0.10(1 - 0.10)}}{{200}}} \\ &\approx 0.1349\end{aligned}\)

The z-value is the sample mean divided by the standard deviation, after subtracting the population mean (alternative mean).

\(\begin{aligned}{c}z &= \frac{{\hat p - {p_0}}}{{\sqrt {\frac{{{p_0}\left( {1 - {p_0}} \right)}}{n}} }}\\ &= \frac{{0.1349 - 0.15}}{{\sqrt {\frac{{0.15(1 - 0.15)}}{{200}}} }}\\ &\approx - 0.60\end{aligned}\)

When the null hypothesis is false, the probability of making a type II error is the probability of not rejecting the null hypothesis. Using the normal probability table in the appendix, calculate the chances of failing to reject the null hypothesis.

\(\begin{aligned}{c}\beta &= P(Z < - 0.60)\\ &= 0.2743\\ &= 27.43\% \end{aligned}\)

04

Describe the sample size.

(c)

Now,\(\beta (0.15) = 0.10\).

Using the normal probability table in the appendix, find the z-score corresponding to a probability of\(1 - \alpha = 0.95\)(Note: take the complement because the test is right-sided):

\(z = 1.645\)

The population mean (of the hypothesis) is increased by the product of the z-score and the standard deviation to get the sample mean:

\(\begin{aligned}{c}\hat p &= p + z\sqrt {\frac{{p(1 - p)}}{n}} \\ &= 0.10 + 1.645\sqrt {\frac{{0.10(1 - 0.10)}}{n}} \end{aligned}\)

Using the normal probability table in the appendix, find the z-score corresponding to a probability of \(\beta = 0.10\) (Note: take the complement because the test is right-sided):

\(z = - 1.28\)

The population mean (of the hypothesis) is increased by the product of the z-score and the standard deviation to get the sample mean:

\(\begin{aligned}{c}\hat p &= p + z\sqrt {\frac{{p(1 - p)}}{n}} \\ &= 0.15 - 1.28\sqrt {\frac{{0.15(1 - 0.15)}}{n}} \end{aligned}\)

The two-sample expression must be equal to each other. Solve for \(n\):

\(\begin{aligned}{c}0.10\sqrt n + 1.645\sqrt {0.10(1 - 0.10)} &= 0.15\sqrt n - 1.28\sqrt {0.15(1 - 0.15)} \\ - 0.05\sqrt n + 1.645\sqrt {0.10(1 - 0.10)} &= - 1.28\sqrt {0.15(1 - 0.15)} \\ - 0.05\sqrt n &= - 1.28\sqrt {0.15(1 - 0.15)} - 1.645\sqrt {0.10(1 - 0.10)} \\\sqrt n &= \frac{{ - 1.28\sqrt {0.15(1 - 0.15)} - 1.645\sqrt {0.10(1 - 0.10)} }}{{ - 0.05}}\\n &= {\left( {\frac{{ - 1.28\sqrt {0.15(1 - 0.15)} - 1.645\sqrt {0.10(1 - 0.10)} }}{{ - 0.05}}} \right)^2}\\ &\approx 362\end{aligned}\)

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