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Reconsider the accompanying sample data on expense ratio (%) for large-cap growth mutual funds first introduced in Exercise 1.53.

\(\begin{array}{l}0.52 1.06 1.26 2.17 1.55 0.99 1.10 1.07 1.81 2.05\\0.91 0.79 1.39 0.62 1.52 1.02 1.10 1.78 1.01 1.15\end{array}\)

A normal probability plot shows a reasonably linear pattern.

a. Is there compelling evidence for concluding that the population mean expense ratio exceeds \(1\% \)? Carry out a test of the relevant hypotheses using a significance level of \(.01\).

b. Referring back to (a), describe in context type I and II errors and say which error you might have made in reaching your conclusion. The source from which the data was obtained reported that \(\mu = 1.33\) for the population of all \(762\) such funds. So, did you actually commit an error in reaching your conclusion?

c. Supposing that \(\sigma = .5\), determine and interpret the power of the test in (a) for the actual value of m stated in (b).

Short Answer

Expert verified

(a) The population mean expense ratio exceeds\(1\% \)is not supported by appropriate evidence.

(b) The type II error was made.

(c) The post of the test is \(POWER = 73.24\% \).

Step by step solution

01

Define p-value in hypothesis testing.

The null hypothesis states that the population mean is equal to the value mentioned in the claim. If the null hypothesis is the claim, then the alternative hypothesis states the opposite of the null hypothesis.

\(\begin{array}{l}{H_0}:\mu = 0\\{H_a}:\mu \ne 0\end{array}\)

The formula for the value of the test statistic is given by, \(t = \frac{{\bar x - {\mu _0}}}{{s/\sqrt n }}\).

02

Test the appropriate hypothesis.

(a)

The mean is the ration of sum of all values and the total number of values.

\(\begin{aligned}{c}\bar x &= \frac{{0.52 + 1.06 + 1.26 + ... + 1.78 + 1.01 + 1.15}}{{20}}\\ &= \frac{{24.87}}{{20}}\\ &\approx 1.2435\end{aligned}\)

The square of the variance is the standard deviation.

\(\begin{aligned}{c}s &= \sqrt {\frac{{{{(0.52 - 1.2435)}^2} + \ldots . + {{(1.15 - 1.2435)}^2}}}{{20 - 1}}} \\ &\approx 0.4485\end{aligned}\)

Let the given be:

\(\begin{array}{l}n = 20\\\alpha = 0.01\end{array}\)

Claim that the population mean expense ratio exceeds\(1\% \).

The value of the test statistic:

\(\begin{aligned}{c}t &= \frac{{\bar x - {\mu _0}}}{{s/\sqrt n }}\\ &= \frac{{1.2435 - 1}}{{0.4485/\sqrt {20} }}\\ &\approx 2.428\end{aligned}\)

The P-value is the chance of getting the test statistic's result, or a number that is more severe. The P-value is the number (or interval) in the column header of the T table in the appendix that contains the t-value in the row\(\begin{array}{c}df = n - 1\\ = 20 - 1\\ = 19\end{array}\)for the student.

\(0.01 < P < 0.025\)

As the P-value is smaller than the significance level, so the null hypothesis is rejected.

\(P > 0.01 \Rightarrow Fail to Reject {H_0}\)

The population mean expense ratio exceeds \(1\% \) is not supported by appropriate evidence.

03

Describe the type I and type II error.

(b)

Let the given be:

\(\begin{array}{l}n = 20\\{\mu _A} = 1.33\end{array}\)

Claim that the population mean expense ratio exceeds\(1\% \).

The null hypothesis states that the population mean is equal to the value mentioned in the claim. If the null hypothesis is the claim, then the alternative hypothesis states the opposite of the null hypothesis.

\(\begin{array}{l}{H_0}:\mu = 1\\{H_a}:\mu > 1\end{array}\)

Type I error: When\({H_0}\)is true, reject the null hypothesis\({H_0}\).

Interpretation: The population mean expense ratio exceeds\(1\% \), which is incorrect.

Type Il error: When\({H_0}\)is false, fail to reject the null hypothesis\({H_0}\).

Interpretation: The population mean expense ratio does not exceed\(1\% \), which is incorrect.

The given population mean is \(\mu = 1.44\) that results in null hypothesis. The null hypothesis is failed to reject in part (a). Hence, the type II error was made.

04

Determine and interpret the power of the test.

(c)

Let the given be:

\(\begin{array}{l}n = 20\\\alpha = 0.01\end{array}\)

Claim that the population mean expense ratio exceeds\(1\% \).

\({\mu _A} = 1.33\)

Using the normal probability table in the appendix, find the z-score corresponding to a probability of\(1 - \alpha = 0.99\)(Note: take the complement because the test is right-sided):

\(z = 2.33\)

The population mean (of the hypothesis) is increased by the product of the z-score and the standard deviation to get the sample mean:

\(\begin{aligned}{c}\bar x &= \mu + z\frac{\sigma }{{\sqrt n }}\\ &= 1 + 2.33\frac{{0.5}}{{\sqrt {20} }}\\ &\approx 1.2605\end{aligned}\)

The z-value is the sample mean divided by the standard deviation, after subtracting the population mean (alternative mean).

\(\begin{aligned}{c}z &= \frac{{\bar x - \mu }}{{\sigma /\sqrt n }}\\ &= \frac{{1.2605 - 1.33}}{{0.5/\sqrt {20} }}\\ &\approx - 0.62\end{aligned}\)

When the null hypothesis is false, the probability of making a type II error is the probability of not rejecting the null hypothesis. Using the normal probability table in the appendix, calculate the chances of failing to reject the null hypothesis.

\(\begin{aligned}{c}POWER &= P(Z > - 0.62)\\ &= 1 - P(Z < - 0.62)\\ &= 1 - 0.2676\\ &= 0.7324\\ &= 73.24\% \end{aligned}\)

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a.P颅-value = .084, 伪= .05

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