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In Example 6.8, we introduced the concept of a censored experiment in which n components are put on test and the experiment terminates as soon as r of the components have failed. Suppose component lifetimes are independent, each having an exponential distribution with parameter 位. Let Y1 denote the time at which the first failure occurs, Y2 the time at which the second failure occurs, and so on, so that Tr= Y1 + 鈥 + Yr+ (n- r)Yr is the total accumulated lifetime at termination. Then it can be shown that 2位罢r has a chi-squared distribution with 2r df. Use this fact to develop a 100(1 - )% CI formula for true average lifetime \(\frac{{\bf{1}}}{{\bf{\lambda }}}\) . Compute a 95% CI from the data in Example 6.8.

Short Answer

Expert verified

The required confidence interval is \((65.3,232.5)\).

Step by step solution

01

A confidence interval.

A \(100(1 - \alpha )\% \) confidence interval for mean \(1/\lambda \) can be obtained from the fact (because the given random variable has chi square distribution)

\(P({X^2}_{1 - \alpha /2,2r} < 2\lambda {T_r} < {X^2}_{\alpha /2,2r}) = 1 - \alpha \)

With adequate transformations, this becomes

\(P(\frac{{{\chi ^2}_{1 - \alpha /2,2r}}}{{2{T_r}}} < \lambda < \frac{{{\chi ^2}_{\alpha /2,2r}}}{{2{T_r}}}) = 1 - \alpha \)

And the CI for \(1/\lambda \) can be obtained from,

\(P(\frac{{2{T_r}}}{{{\chi ^2}_{\alpha /2,2r}}} < \lambda < \frac{{2{T_r}}}{{{\chi ^2}_{1 - \alpha /2,2r}}}) = 1 - \alpha \)

Where, for \({t_r} = {y_1} + {y_2} + ... + {y_r} + (n - r){y_r}\), the \(100(1 - \alpha )\) confidence interval is,

\((\frac{{2{t_r}}}{{{\chi ^2}_{\alpha /2,2r}}},\frac{{2{t_r}}}{{{\chi ^2}_{1 - \alpha /2,2r}}})\)

02

Critical values.

It is given that random variable \(2\lambda {T_r}\) has a chi square distribution with \(v = 2r\) degrees of freedom.

From the example 6.8, the given data is \(n = 20,r = 10\)and the first \(10\)failure times are\(11,15,29,33,35,40,47,55,58,72\) from which \({t_r}\) becomes

\(\begin{array}{c}{t_{10}} = 11 + 15 + ... + 58 + 72 + (20 - 10)(72)\\ = 1115\end{array}\)

The given random variable has \(2.\)

\(r = 2(10)\)

\(r = 20\)degrees of freedom.

From ,

\(\begin{aligned}100(1 - \alpha ) & = 95\\\alpha & = 0.05\\\alpha /2 & = 0.025\end{aligned}\)

Therefore, the critical values are,

\(\begin{aligned}{l}{\chi ^2}_{\alpha /2,2r} & = {\chi ^2}_{0.025,20}\\{\chi ^2}_{\alpha /2,2r} & = 34.17\\{\chi ^2}_{1 - \alpha /2,2r} & = {\chi ^2}_{0.975,20}\\{\chi ^2}_{1 - \alpha /2,2r} & = 9.591\end{aligned}\)

03

Confidence interval.

Finally, the confidence interval for \(1\lambda \)is,

\(\begin{aligned}{l}(\frac{{2{t_r}}}{{{\chi ^2}_{\alpha /2,2r}}},\frac{{2{t_r}}}{{{\chi ^2}_{1 - \alpha /2,2r}}}) & = \left( {\frac{{2(1115)}}{{34.17}},\frac{{2(1115)}}{{9.591}}} \right)\\ & = (65.3,232.5)\end{aligned}\)

Hence, the required confidence interval is \((65.3,232.5)\).

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The technology underlying hip replacements has changed as these operations have become more popular . Starting in 2003, highly durable ceramic hips were marketed. Unfortunately, for too many patients the increased durability has been counterbalanced by an increased incidence of squeaking. The May 11, 2008, issue of the New York Times reported that in one study of 143 individuals who received ceramic hips between 2003 and 2005, 10 of the hips developed squeaking.

a. Calculate a lower confidence bound at the \({\rm{95\% }}\)confidence level for the true proportion of such hips that develop squeaking.

b. Interpret the \({\rm{95\% }}\)confidence level used in (a).

A study of the ability of individuals to walk in a straight line reported the accompanying data on cadence (strides per second) for a sample of n =\({\rm{20}}\) randomly selected healthy men.

\({\rm{.95 }}{\rm{.85 }}{\rm{.92 }}{\rm{.95 }}{\rm{.93 }}{\rm{.86 1}}{\rm{.00 }}{\rm{.92 }}{\rm{.85 }}{\rm{.81 }}{\rm{.78 }}{\rm{.93 }}{\rm{.93 1}}{\rm{.05 }}{\rm{.93 1}}{\rm{.06 1}}{\rm{.06 }}{\rm{.96 }}{\rm{.81 }}{\rm{.96}}\)

A normal probability plot gives substantial support to the assumption that the population distribution of cadence is approximately normal. A descriptive summary of the data from Minitab follows:

Variable N Mean Median TrMean StDev SEMean cadence

\({\rm{20 0}}{\rm{.9255 0}}{\rm{.9300 0}}{\rm{.9261 0}}{\rm{.0809 0}}{\rm{.0181}}\)

Variable Min Max Q1 Q3 cadence

\({\rm{0}}{\rm{.7800 1}}{\rm{.0600 0}}{\rm{.8525 0}}{\rm{.9600}}\)

a. Calculate and interpret a \({\rm{95\% }}\) confidence interval for population mean cadence.

b.Calculate and interpret a \({\rm{95\% }}\)prediction interval for the cadence of a single individual randomly selected from this population.

c. Calculate an interval that includes at least \({\rm{99\% }}\)of the cadences in the population distribution using a confidence level of \({\rm{95\% }}\)

It is important that face masks used by fire fighters be able to withstand high temperatures because fire fighters commonly work in temperatures of 200鈥500掳F. In a test of one type of mask, 11 of 55 masks had lenses pop out at 250掳. Construct a 90% upper confidence bound for the true proportion of masks of this type whose lenses would pop out at 250掳.

Let X1, X2,鈥, Xn be a random sample from a uniform distribution on the interval (0,胃), so that

\({\rm{f(x) = }}\left\{ \begin{aligned}{l}\frac{{\rm{1}}}{{\rm{\theta }}}{\rm{ 0}} \le {\rm{x}} \le {\rm{\theta }}\\{\rm{0 otherwise}}\end{aligned} \right.\)

Then if Y= max(Xi ), it can be shown that the rv U=Y/胃 has density function

\({{\rm{f}}_U}{\rm{(u) = }}\left\{ \begin{aligned}{l}{\rm{n}}{{\rm{u}}^{n - 1}}{\rm{ 0}} \le u \le 1\\{\rm{0 otherwise}}\end{aligned} \right.\)

a. Use\({{\rm{f}}_U}{\rm{(u)}}\) to verify that

\({\rm{P}}\left( {{{(\alpha /2)}^{1/n}} < \frac{Y}{\theta } \le {{(1 - \alpha /2)}^{1/n}}} \right) = 1 - \alpha \)

and use this derive a \(100(1 - \alpha )\% \) CI for 胃.

b. Verify that \({\rm{P}}\left( {{\alpha ^{1/n}} < Y/\theta \le 1} \right) = 1 - \alpha \), and derive a 100(1 - )% CI for based on this probability statement.

c.Which of the two intervals derived previously is shorter? If my waiting time for a morning bus is uniformly distributed and observed waiting times are x1 = 4.2, x2 = 3.5, x3 = 1.7, x4 = 1.2, and x5 = 2.4, derive a 95% CI for by using the shorter of the two intervals.

Ultra high performance concrete (UHPC) is a rela- tively new construction material that is characterized by strong adhesive properties with other materials. The article 鈥淎dhesive Power of Ultra High Performance Concrete from a Thermodynamic Point of View鈥 described an investigation of the intermolecular forces for UHPC connected to various substrates. The following work of adhesion measurements (in mJ/m2) for UHPC specimens adhered to steel appeared in the article:

\({\rm{107}}{\rm{.1\;109}}{\rm{.5\;107}}{\rm{.4\;106}}{\rm{.8\;108}}{\rm{.1}}\)

a. Is it plausible that the given sample observations were selected from a normal distribution?

b. Calculate a two-sided \({\rm{95\% }}\) confidence interval for the true average work of adhesion for UHPC adhered to steel. Does the interval suggest that \({\rm{107}}\) is a plausible value for the true average work of adhesion for UHPC adhered to steel? What about \({\rm{110}}\)?

c. Predict the resulting work of adhesion value resulting from a single future replication of the experiment by calculating a \({\rm{95\% }}\)prediction interval, and compare the width of this interval to the width of the CI from (b).

d. Calculate an interval for which you can have a high degree of confidence that at least \({\rm{95\% }}\)of all UHPC specimens adhered to steel will have work of adhesion values between the limits of the interval.

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