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High concentration of the toxic element arsenic is all too common in groundwater. The article 鈥淓valuation of Treatment Systems for the Removal of Arsenic from Groundwater鈥 (Practice Periodical of Hazardous, Toxic, and Radioactive Waste Mgmt., 2005: 152鈥157) reported that for a sample of n = 5 water specimens selected for treatment by coagulation, the sample mean arsenic concentration was 24.3 碌g/L, and the sample standard deviation was 4.1. The authors of the cited article used t-based methods to analyze their data, so hopefully had reason to believe that the distribution of arsenic concentration was normal.

a.Calculate and interpret a 95% CI for true average arsenic concentration in all such water specimens.

b.Calculate a 90% upper confidence bound for the standard deviation of the arsenic concentration distribution.

c.Predict the arsenic concentration for a single water specimen in a way that conveys information about precision and reliability.

Short Answer

Expert verified
  1. The \(95\% \) confidence interval is\((19.21,29.39)\).
  2. The upper bound for\(\sigma \) is\(7.9495\).
  3. The \(95\% \) prediction interval is \((11.8276,36.7724)\).

Step by step solution

01

Step 1:Confidence bound.

Upper confidence bound for \(\mu \) and lower confidence bound for \(\mu \) are given by,

\(\overline x + {t_{\alpha /2,n - 1}} \cdot \frac{s}{{\sqrt n }}\)-upper bound,

\(\overline x - {t_{\alpha /2,n - 1}} \cdot \frac{s}{{\sqrt n }}\)-lower bound.

With confidence level of \(100(1 - \alpha )\% \). Then distribution the random sample is taken from is normal.

02

Step 2:Solution for part a).

Given that,

\(\begin{array}{l}n = 5\\\overline x = 23.3\\s = 4.1\end{array}\)

And assuming normality, the confidence intervals for \(\mu \) and \(\sigma \), as well as prediction interval can be computed.

Upper confidence bound for \(\mu \) and lower confidence bound for \(\mu \) are given by,

\(\overline x + {t_{\alpha /2,n - 1}} \cdot \frac{s}{{\sqrt n }}\)-upper bound,

\(\overline x - {t_{\alpha /2,n - 1}} \cdot \frac{s}{{\sqrt n }}\)-lower bound.

With confidence level of \(100(1 - \alpha )\% \). Then distribution the random sample is taken from is normal.

To obtain \(95\% \) confidence interval, that \(t\) value is needed for \(\alpha /2 = 0.025\) and \(5 - 1 = 4\) degrees of freedom, where \(\alpha \) was obtained from,

\(\begin{array}{l}100(1 - \alpha ) = 95\\\alpha = 0.05\\\alpha /2 = 0.025\end{array}\)

03

Step 3:95% confidence interval.

The \(t\) value can be found at the appendix of the book in the table of values and it is

\(\begin{array}{l}{t_{\alpha /2,n - 1}} = {t_{0.025,4}}\\{t_{\alpha /2,n - 1}} = 2.777\end{array}\)

The \(95\% \) confidence interval now becomes,

\(\begin{array}{l}\left( {\overline x - {t_{\alpha /2,n - 1}} \cdot \frac{s}{{\sqrt n }},\overline x + {t_{\alpha /2,n - 1}} \cdot \frac{s}{{\sqrt n }}} \right)\\ = \left( {24.3 - 2.777\frac{{4.1}}{{\sqrt 5 }},24.3 + 2.777\frac{{4.1}}{{\sqrt 5 }}} \right)\\ = (19.21,29.39)\end{array}\)

04

Step 4:Solution for part b).

Confidence interval for the variance, with confidence level \(100(1 - \alpha )\% \) of a normal population has upper bound,\(\frac{{(n - 1){s^2}}}{{{X^2}_{1 - \alpha /2,n - 1}}}\) and lower bound\(\frac{{(n - 1){s^2}}}{{{X^2}_{\alpha /2,n - 1}}}\).

The confidence intervals for the standard deviation has bounds that can be obtained by taking square root of the corresponding bounds of the confidence interval for the variance. By substituting \(\alpha /2\) with \(\alpha \) the corresponding upper and lower bounds are obtained.

From \(100(1 - \alpha ) = 0.9\),\(\alpha \) is \(0.1\), the square value , where degrees of freedom are \(5 - 1 = 4\) is,

\(\begin{array}{l}{X^2}_{1 - \alpha /2,n - 1} = {X^2}_{0.9,4}\\ = 1.064\end{array}\)

Which can be found at the appendix. The upper bound for \(\sigma \) becomes,

\(\begin{array}{l}\sqrt {\frac{{(n - 1){s^2}}}{{{X^2}_{1 - \alpha /2,n - 1}}}} = \sqrt {\frac{{4{{(4.1)}^2}}}{{1.064}}} \\ = 7.9495\end{array}\)

The upper bound for \(\sigma \) is\(7.9495\).

05

Step 5:Solution for part c).

Two sided prediction interval is

\(\left( {\overline x - {t_{\alpha /2,n - 1}} \cdot s\sqrt {1 + \frac{1}{n}} ,\overline x + {t_{\alpha /2,n - 1}} \cdot s\sqrt {1 + \frac{1}{n}} } \right)\)

To compute a \(95\% \) prediction interval first the \(t\) value is necessary. As in (a), the value is,

\(\begin{array}{l}{t_{\alpha /2,n - 1}} = {t_{0.025,4}}\\{t_{\alpha /2,n - 1}} = 2.777\end{array}\)

A \(95\% \) prediction interval is,

\(\begin{array}{l}\left( {\overline x - {t_{\alpha /2,n - 1}} \cdot s\sqrt {1 + \frac{1}{n}} ,\overline x + {t_{\alpha /2,n - 1}} \cdot s\sqrt {1 + \frac{1}{n}} } \right)\\ = \left( {24.3 - 2.777(4.1)\sqrt {1 + \frac{1}{5}} ,24.3 + 2.777(4.1)\sqrt {1 + \frac{1}{5}} } \right)\\ = (11.8276,36.7724)\end{array}\)

Hence, The \(95\% \) prediction interval is \((11.8276,36.7724)\).

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Most popular questions from this chapter

When the population distribution is normal, the statistic median \(\left\{ {\left| {{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ - }}\widetilde {\rm{X}}} \right|{\rm{, \ldots ,}}\left| {{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{n}}}{\rm{ - }}\widetilde {\rm{X}}} \right|} \right\}{\rm{/}}{\rm{.6745}}\) can be used to estimate \({\rm{\sigma }}\). This estimator is more resistant to the effects of outliers (observations far from the bulk of the data) than is the sample standard deviation. Compute both the corresponding point estimate and s for the data of Example \({\rm{6}}{\rm{.2}}\).

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a. Calculate a lower confidence bound at the \({\rm{95\% }}\)confidence level for the true proportion of such hips that develop squeaking.

b. Interpret the \({\rm{95\% }}\)confidence level used in (a).

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A state legislator wishes to survey residents of her district to see what proportion of the electorate is aware of her position on using state funds to pay for abortions.

a. What sample size is necessary if the \({\rm{95\% }}\)CI for p is to have a width of at most . \({\rm{10}}\)irrespective of p?

b. If the legislator has strong reason to believe that at least \({\rm{2/3}}\)of the electorate know of her position, how large a sample size would you recommend?

Let X1, X2,鈥, Xn be a random sample from a continuous probability distribution having median \(\widetilde {\bf{\mu }}\) (so that \({\bf{P(}}{{\bf{X}}_{\bf{i}}} \le \widetilde {\bf{\mu }}{\bf{) = P(}}{{\bf{X}}_{\bf{i}}} \le \widetilde {\bf{\mu }}{\bf{) = }}{\bf{.5}}\)).

a. Show that

\({\bf{P(min(}}{{\bf{X}}_{\bf{i}}}{\bf{) < }}\widetilde {\bf{\mu }}{\bf{ < max(}}{{\bf{X}}_{\bf{i}}}{\bf{)) = 1 - }}{\left( {\frac{{\bf{1}}}{{\bf{2}}}} \right)^{{\bf{n - 1}}}}\)

So that \({\bf{(min(}}{{\bf{x}}_{\bf{i}}}{\bf{),max(}}{{\bf{x}}_{\bf{i}}}{\bf{))}}\)is a \({\bf{100(1 - \alpha )\% }}\) confidence interval for \(\widetilde {\bf{\mu }}\) with (\({\bf{\alpha = 1 - }}{\left( {\frac{{\bf{1}}}{{\bf{2}}}} \right)^{{\bf{n - 1}}}}\).Hint :The complement of the event \(\left\{ {{\bf{min(}}{{\bf{X}}_{\bf{i}}}{\bf{) < \mu < max(}}{{\bf{X}}_{\bf{i}}}{\bf{)}}} \right\}\)is \({\bf{\{ max(}}{{\bf{X}}_{\bf{i}}}{\bf{)}} \le \widetilde {\bf{\mu }}{\bf{\} }} \cup {\bf{\{ min(}}{{\bf{X}}_{\bf{i}}}{\bf{)}} \ge \widetilde {\bf{\mu }}{\bf{\} }}\). But \({\bf{max(}}{{\bf{X}}_{\bf{i}}}{\bf{)}} \le \widetilde {\bf{\mu }}\) iff \({\bf{(}}{{\bf{X}}_{\bf{i}}}{\bf{)}} \le \widetilde {\bf{\mu }}\)for all i.

b.For each of six normal male infants, the amount of the amino acid alanine (mg/100 mL) was determined while the infants were on an isoleucine-free diet,

resulting in the following data:

2.84 3.54 2.80 1.44 2.94 2.70

Compute a 97% CI for the true median amount of alanine for infants on such a diet(鈥淭he Essential Amino Acid Requirements of Infants,鈥 Amer. J. Of Nutrition, 1964: 322鈥330).

c.Let x(2)denote the second smallest of the xi鈥檚 and x(n-1) denote the second largest of the xi鈥檚. What is the confidence level of the interval(x(2), x(n-1)) for \(\widetilde \mu \)?

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