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Unexplained respiratory symptoms reported by athletes are often incorrectly considered secondary to exercise-induced asthma. The article 鈥淗igh Prevalence of Exercise-Induced Laryngeal Obstruction in Athletes鈥 (Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise, 2013: 2030鈥2035) suggested that many such cases could instead be explained by obstruction of the larynx. In a sample of 88 athletes referred for an asthma workup, 31 were found to have the EILO condition.

a.Calculate and interpret a confidence interval using a 95% confidence level for the true proportion of all athletes found to have the EILO condition under these circumstances.

b.What sample size is required if the desired width of the 95% CI is to be at most .04, irrespective of the sample results?

c.Does the upper limit of the interval in (a) specify a 95% upper confidence bound for the proportion being estimated? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified

a)The boundaries of the confidence interval is\((0.2525,0.4521)\).

b)The sample size, \(n = 2192\).

c)The \(95\% \)upper confidence bound is \(0.4361\).

Step by step solution

01

Step 1:Marigin error.

The margin of the error is then:

\(E = {Z_{\alpha /2}}\sqrt {\frac{{\widehat p(1 - \widehat p)}}{n}} \)

02

Solution for part a).

Given that,

\(\begin{array}{l}x = 31\\n = 88\\Width = 0.04\\c = 95\% \end{array}\)

The sample proportion is the number of successes divided by the sample size:

\(\begin{array}{l}\widehat p = \frac{x}{n}\\\widehat p = \frac{{31}}{{88}}\\\widehat p = 0.3523\end{array}\)

For confidence level \(1 - \alpha = 0.95\), determine \({Z_{\alpha /2}} = {Z_{0.025}}\)using the normal probability table in the appendix ( look up \(0.025\)in the table, the z-score is then the found z-score with opposite sign):

\({Z_{\alpha /2}} = 1.96\)

The margin of the error is then:

\(\begin{array}{l}E = {Z_{\alpha /2}}\sqrt {\frac{{\widehat p(1 - \widehat p)}}{n}} \\E = 1.96\sqrt {\frac{{0.3523(1 - 0.3523)}}{{88}}} \\E \approx 0.0998\end{array}\)

03

Boundaries of the confidence interval.

The boundaries of the confidence interval are then:

\(\begin{array}{l}\widehat p - E = 0.3523 - 0.0998\\\widehat p - E = 0.2525\\\widehat p + E = 0.3523 + 0.0998\\\widehat p + E = 0.4521\end{array}\)

We are \(95\% \) confident that the true proportion of all athletes found to have the EILO condition under these circumstance is between \(0.2525\) and \(0.4521\)

Hence, The boundaries of the confidence interval is \((0.2525,0.4521)\).

04

Solution for part b).

The margin of error is half the width of the confidence interval:

\(\begin{array}{l}E = \frac{{Width}}{2}\\E = \frac{{0.04}}{2}\\E = 0.02\end{array}\)

The sample proportion is the number of successes divided by the sample size:

\(\begin{array}{l}\widehat p = \frac{x}{n}\\\widehat p = \frac{{31}}{{88}}\\\widehat p = 0.3523\end{array}\)

Formula sample size:

\(\widehat p\)known:

\(\begin{array}{l}n = \frac{{{{\left( {{Z_{\alpha /2}}} \right)}^2}\widehat p\widehat q}}{{{E^2}}}\\n = \frac{{{{\left( {{Z_{\alpha /2}}} \right)}^2}\widehat p(1 - \widehat p)}}{{{E^2}}}\end{array}\)

\(\widehat p\)unknown:

\(n = \frac{{{{\left( {{Z_{\alpha /2}}} \right)}^2}0.25}}{{{E^2}}}\)

For confidence level \(1 - \alpha = 0.95\), determine \({Z_{\alpha /2}} = {Z_{0.025}}\)using the normal probability table in the appendix ( look up \(0.025\)in the table, the z-score is then the found z-score with opposite sign):

\({Z_{\alpha /2}} = 1.96\)

\(\widehat p\)is known, then the sample size is (round up to the nearest integral);

\(\begin{array}{l}n = \frac{{{{\left( {{Z_{\alpha /2}}} \right)}^2}\widehat p(1 - \widehat p)}}{{{E^2}}}\\n = \frac{{{{(1.96)}^2}(0.3523)(1 - 0.3523)}}{{{{0.02}^2}}}\\n = 2192\end{array}\)

Hence, the sample size, \(n = 2192\).

05

solution for part c).

We are \(95\% \) confident that the true population mean is between \(0.2525\) and \(0.4521\)thus we are \(2.5\% \) sure that the true population mean is below \(0.2525\) and \(2.5\% \) sure that the true population mean is above \(0.4521\). In total there is then\(95\% + 2.5\% = 97.5\% \) confidence that the true population mean is below \(0.4521\).

The upper limit \(0.4521\)is NOT a \(95\% \) upper confidence bound, but is a \(97.5\% \) upper confidence bound.

\(95\% \)upper confidence bound:

The sample proportion is the number of successes divided by the sample size:

\(\begin{array}{l}\widehat p = \frac{x}{n}\\\widehat p = \frac{{31}}{{88}}\\\widehat p = 0.3523\end{array}\)

For confidence level \(1 - \alpha = 0.95\), determine \({Z_{\alpha /2}} = {Z_{0.05}}\)using the normal probability table in the appendix ( look up \(0.025\)in the table, the z-score is then the found z-score with opposite sign):

\({Z_{\alpha /2}} = 1.645\)

06

Upper boundary confidence interval.

The margin of the error is then:

\(\begin{array}{l}E = {Z_{\alpha /2}}\sqrt {\frac{{\widehat p(1 - \widehat p)}}{n}} \\E = 1.645\sqrt {\frac{{0.3523(1 - 0.3523)}}{{88}}} \\E \approx 0.0838\end{array}\)

The upper boundary of the confidence interval is then:

\(\begin{array}{l}\widehat p + E = 0.3523 + 0.0838\\\widehat p + E = 0.4361\end{array}\)

Thus, The \(95\% \)upper confidence bound is \(0.4361\).

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