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Suppose that trees are distributed in a forest according to a two-dimensional Poisson process with parameter\({\rm{\alpha }}\), the expected number of trees per acre, equal to\({\rm{80}}\). a. What is the probability that in a certain quarter-acre plot, there will be at most\({\rm{16}}\)trees? b. If the forest covers\({\rm{85,000}}\)acres, what is the expected number of trees in the forest? c. Suppose you select a point in the forest and construct a circle of radius\({\rm{.1}}\)mile. Let X = the number of trees within that circular region. What is the pmf of X? (Hint:\({\rm{1}}\)sq mile\({\rm{ = 640}}\)acres.)

Short Answer

Expert verified

(a) The probability is obtained as:\({\rm{P(X}} \le {\rm{16) = 0}}{\rm{.221}}\).

(b) The expected number of trees in the forest are: \({\rm{6,800,000}}\).

(c) The pmf is obtained as: \({\rm{p(x;1608}}{\rm{.5) = }}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{ - 1608}}{\rm{.5}}}}\frac{{{\rm{1608}}{\rm{.}}{{\rm{5}}^{\rm{x}}}}}{{{\rm{x!}}}}\).

Step by step solution

01

Define Discrete random variables

A discrete random variable is one that can only take on a finite number of different values.

02

Evaluating the probability

Proposition: A Poisson Random Variable with parameter \({\rm{\mu = \alpha t}}\) may be used to simulate the number of events that occur during a time interval of length.This implies that:

Process of Poisson

That is given to us.

\({\rm{\alpha = 80}}\)

(a) In this situation, the mean parameter would be since a quarter is \({\rm{0}}{\rm{.25}}\) of an acre.

\(\begin{aligned}{\rm{\alpha \times 0}}{\rm{.25 = 80 \times 0}}{\rm{.25}}\\ &= 20 \end{aligned}\)

The following is true for:

\(\begin{aligned}{{\rm{P}}_{{\rm{16}}}}{\rm{(0}}{\rm{.25) = P(X}} \le {\rm{16)}}\\{\rm{ = F(16;20)}}\\{\rm{ = 0}}{\rm{.221}}\end{aligned}\)

(1):The Poisson cdf \({\rm{F(X;\mu )}}\) is found in Appendix Table \({\rm{A}}{\rm{.2}}\).

Therefore, the value is:\({\rm{P(X}} \le {\rm{16) = 0}}{\rm{.221}}\).

03

Evaluating the expected number of trees

(b) The following is valid for a random variable X with a Poisson Distribution with parameter \({\rm{\mu > 0}}\).

\(\begin{array}{c}{\rm{E(X) = V(X)}}\\{\rm{ = \mu }}\end{array}\)

Our random variable X would now have a new parameter. That is still the case.

\({\rm{\alpha = 80}}\)

However, since we now know that the forest encompasses \({\rm{85,000}}\) acres,

\({\rm{t = 85,000}}\)

The following statement is correct:

\(\begin{aligned} E(X) &= \mu \\ &= \alpha \times t \\ &= 80 \times 85,000 \\ & = 6,800,000 \end{aligned}\)

Therefore, the number of tress are: \({\rm{6,800,000}}\).

04

Evaluating the pmf

(c) First, we must establish how many acres the circle encompasses. We may first figure out how many square miles there are by calculating the surface area of a circle with a radius of \({\rm{0}}{\rm{.1}}\) mile.

\(\begin{array}{c}{{\rm{r}}^{\rm{2}}}{\rm{\pi = 0}}{\rm{.}}{{\rm{1}}^{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ \times \pi }}\\{\rm{ = 0}}{\rm{.03141593}}\end{array}\)

miles squared Since

\({\rm{1 sq mile = 640 acres}}\)

That is something we have.

\({\rm{0}}{\rm{.03141593 \times 640 = 20}}{\rm{.1062}}\)

acres.

Keep in mind that

\({\rm{\alpha = 80}}\)

and we now have

\({\rm{t = 20}}{\rm{.1062}}\)

As a result, our random variable X follows a Poisson distribution with a parameter.

\(\begin{aligned} mu &= \alpha \times 20 {\rm{.1062}}\\ &= 80 \times 20 {\rm{.1062}}\\ &= 1608 {\rm{.5}}\end{aligned}\)

pmf with a random variable X

\({\rm{p(x;\mu ) = }}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{ - \mu }}}}\frac{{{{\rm{\mu }}^{\rm{x}}}}}{{{\rm{x!}}}}\)

Poisson Distribution with parameter \({\rm{\mu > 0}}\) is claimed to exist for \({\rm{x = 0,1,}}.....\).

As a result, X's pmf is

\({\rm{p(x;1608}}{\rm{.5) = }}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{ - 1608}}{\rm{.5}}}}\frac{{{\rm{1608}}{\rm{.}}{{\rm{5}}^{\rm{x}}}}}{{{\rm{x!}}}}\)

It is for\({\rm{x = 0,1,}}.....\)

Therefore, the value is: \({\rm{p(x;1608}}{\rm{.5) = }}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{ - 1608}}{\rm{.5}}}}\frac{{{\rm{1608}}{\rm{.}}{{\rm{5}}^{\rm{x}}}}}{{{\rm{x!}}}}\).

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Consider a disease whose presence can be identified by carrying out a blood test. Let \({\rm{p}}\) denote the probability that a randomly selected individual has the disease. Suppose \({\rm{n}}\) individuals are independently selected for testing. One way to proceed is to carry out a separate test on each of the \({\rm{n}}\) blood samples. A potentially more economical approach, group testing, was introduced during World War \({\rm{II}}\) to identify syphilitic men among army inductees. First, take a part of each blood sample, combine these specimens, and carry out a single test. If no one has the disease, the result will be negative, and only the one test is required. If at least one individual is diseased, the test on the combined sample will yield a positive result, in which case the n individual tests are then carried out. If \({\rm{p = }}{\rm{.1}}\) and \({\rm{n = 3}}\), what is the expected number of tests using this procedure? What is the expected number when \({\rm{n = 5}}\)? (The article 鈥淩andom Multiple-Access Communication and Group Testing鈥 (IEEE Trans. on Commun., \({\rm{1984: 769 - 774}}\)) applied these ideas to a communication system in which the dichotomy was active/ idle user rather than diseased/non-diseased.)

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A mail-order computer business has six telephone lines. Let X denote the number of lines in use at a specified time. Suppose the pmf of X is as given in the accompanying table.

X

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

p(x)

.10

.15

.20

.25

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