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Organisms are present in ballast water discharged from a ship according to a Poisson process with a concentration of\({\bf{10}}\)organisms/m3 (the article 鈥淐ounting at Low Concentrations: The Statistical Challenges of Verifying Ballast Water Discharge Standards鈥 (Ecological Applications) considers using the Poisson process for this purpose). a. What is the probability that one cubic meter of discharge contains at least 8 organisms? b. What is the probability that the number of organisms in\({\bf{1}}.{\bf{5}}{\rm{ }}{{\bf{m}}^3}\)of discharge exceeds its mean value by more than one standard deviation? c. For what amount of discharge would the probability of containing at least one organism be\(.{\bf{999}}\)?

Short Answer

Expert verified

The probability that one cubic meter of discharge is\(78\% \).

The probability of the number of organisms in part b is\(18.1\% \).

The amount of discharge in part c is \(0.6907755\).

Step by step solution

01

Definition of Probability

Randomness is studied using probability, a mathematical instrument. It is concerned with the probability of an event taking place. You might not get two heads and two tails when you throw a fair coin four times.

02

Calculation for the determination of probability in part a.

The cumulative probability \(P(X \le 7)\)is given in the row with \(x = 7\)and in the column with \(\mu = 10.0\)of table:

\(P(X < 8) = P(X \le 7) = 0.220\)

Complement rule:

\(P({\mathop{\rm not}\nolimits} A) = 1 - P(A)\)

Use the complement rule:

\(\begin{array}{l}P(X \ge 8) = 1 - P(X < 8)\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = 1 - 0.220\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = 0.780\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = 78.0\% \end{array}\)

03

Calculation for the determination of probability in part b.

The cumulative probability \(P(X \le 18)\)is given in the row with \(x = 18\)and in the column with \(\mu = 15.0\)of table:

\(P(X < 18.9) = P(X \le 18) = 0.819\)

Complement rule:

\(P({\mathop{\rm not}\nolimits} A) = 1 - P(A)\)

Use the complement rule:

\(\begin{array}{l}P(X > \mu + \sigma ) = P(X > 18.9)\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = 1 - P(X < 18.9)\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = 1 - 0.819\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = 0.181 = 18.1\% \end{array}\)

04

Calculation for the determination of probability in part c.

Given: Poisson distribution with

\(\mu = 10{\rm{ organisms }}/{{\rm{m}}^3}\)

Let \(x\;{{\rm{m}}^3}\)be the amount of discharge in. The mean is then the ratio multiplied by the number of \({m^3}\):

\(\mu = 10{\rm{ organisms }}/{{\rm{m}}^3} \times x\;{{\rm{m}}^3} = 10x{\rm{ organisms }}\)

We need to determine x such that:

\(P(X \ge 1) = 0.999\)

Formula Poisson probability:

\(P(X = k) = \frac{{{\mu ^k}{e^{ - \mu }}}}{{k!}}\)

Evaluate at \(k = 0\):

\(P(X = 0) = \frac{{{{(10x)}^0}{e^{ - 10x}}}}{{0!}} = {e^{ - 10x}}\)

05

Calculation for the determination of probability in part c.

Complement rule:

\(P({\mathop{\rm not}\nolimits} {\rm{A}}) = 1 - P(A)\)

Use the complement rule:

\(P(X \ge 1) = 1 - P(X = 0) = 1 - {e^{ - 10x}}\)

We want this probability to be equal to\(0.999\).

\(1 - {e^{ - 10x}} = 0.999\)

Subtract \(1\) from each side of the equation:

\( - {e^{ - 10x}} = - 0.001\)

Multiply each side of the equation by\( - 1\):

\({e^{ - 10x}} = 0.001\)

06

Calculation for the determination of probability in part c.

Take the natural logarithm of each side:

\(\ln {e^{ - 10x}} = \ln 0.001\)

Use the power property of logarithms \(\left( {\ln {a^b} = b\ln a} \right)\):

\( - 10x\ln e = \ln 0.001\)

The natural logarithm of e is l:

\( - 10x = \ln 0.001\)

Divide each side by\( - 10\):

\(x = \frac{{\ln 0.001}}{{ - 10}}\)

Evaluate:

\(x = - \frac{{\ln 0.001}}{{10}} \approx 0.6907755\)

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Three couples and two single individuals have been invited to an investment seminar and have agreed to attend. Suppose the probability that any particular couple or individual arrives late is .4 (a couple will travel together in the same vehicle, so either both people will be on time or else both will arrive late). Assume that different couples and individuals are on time or late independently of one another. Let X = the number ofpeople who arrive late for the seminar.

a. Determine the probability mass function of X. (Hint: label the three couples #1, #2, and #3 and the two individuals #4 and #5.)

b. Obtain the cumulative distribution function of X, and use it to calculate\(P\left( {2 \le X \le 6} \right)\).

Consider a communication source that transmits packets containing digitized speech. After each transmission, the receiver sends a message indicating whether the transmission was successful or unsuccessful. If a transmission is unsuccessful, the packet is re-sent. Suppose a voice packet can be transmitted a maximum of \({\rm{10}}\) times. Assuming that the results of successive transmissions are independent of one another and that the probability of any particular transmission being successful is \({\rm{p}}\), determine the probability mass function of the rv \({\rm{X = }}\)the number of times a packet is transmitted. Then obtain an expression for the expected number of times a packet is transmitted.

A new battery鈥檚 voltage may be acceptable (A) or unacceptable (U). A certain flashlight requires two batteries, so batteries will be independently selected and tested until two acceptable ones have been found. Suppose that 90% of all batteries have acceptable voltages. Let Y denote the number of batteries that must be tested.

a. What is\(p\left( 2 \right)\), that is, \(P\left( {Y = 2} \right)\),?

b. What is\(p\left( 2 \right)\)? (Hint: There are two different outcomes that result in\(Y = 3\).)

c. To have \(Y = 5\), what must be true of the fifth battery selected? List the four outcomes for which Y = 5 and then determine\(p\left( 5 \right)\).

d. Use the pattern in your answers for parts (a)鈥(c) to obtain a general formula \(p\left( y \right)\).

Each time a component is tested, the trial is a success (S) or failure (F). Suppose the component is tested repeatedly until a success occurs on three consecutive trials. Let Y denote the number of trials necessary to achieve this. List all outcomes corresponding to the five smallest possible values of Y, and state which Y value is associated with each one.

If the sample space S is an infinite set, does this necessarily imply that any rv X defined from S will have an infinite set of possible values? If yes, say why. If no, give an example.

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