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Organisms are present in ballast water discharged from a ship according to a Poisson process with a concentration of\({\bf{10}}\)organisms/m3 (the article 鈥淐ounting at Low Concentrations: The Statistical Challenges of Verifying Ballast Water Discharge Standards鈥 (Ecological Applications) considers using the Poisson process for this purpose). a. What is the probability that one cubic meter of discharge contains at least 8 organisms? b. What is the probability that the number of organisms in\({\bf{1}}.{\bf{5}}{\rm{ }}{{\bf{m}}^3}\)of discharge exceeds its mean value by more than one standard deviation? c. For what amount of discharge would the probability of containing at least one organism be\(.{\bf{999}}\)?

Short Answer

Expert verified

The probability that one cubic meter of discharge is\(78\% \).

The probability of the number of organisms in part b is\(18.1\% \).

The amount of discharge in part c is \(0.6907755\).

Step by step solution

01

Definition of Probability

Randomness is studied using probability, a mathematical instrument. It is concerned with the probability of an event taking place. You might not get two heads and two tails when you throw a fair coin four times.

02

Calculation for the determination of probability in part a.

The cumulative probability \(P(X \le 7)\)is given in the row with \(x = 7\)and in the column with \(\mu = 10.0\)of table:

\(P(X < 8) = P(X \le 7) = 0.220\)

Complement rule:

\(P({\mathop{\rm not}\nolimits} A) = 1 - P(A)\)

Use the complement rule:

\(\begin{array}{l}P(X \ge 8) = 1 - P(X < 8)\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = 1 - 0.220\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = 0.780\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = 78.0\% \end{array}\)

03

Calculation for the determination of probability in part b.

The cumulative probability \(P(X \le 18)\)is given in the row with \(x = 18\)and in the column with \(\mu = 15.0\)of table:

\(P(X < 18.9) = P(X \le 18) = 0.819\)

Complement rule:

\(P({\mathop{\rm not}\nolimits} A) = 1 - P(A)\)

Use the complement rule:

\(\begin{array}{l}P(X > \mu + \sigma ) = P(X > 18.9)\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = 1 - P(X < 18.9)\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = 1 - 0.819\\\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\, = 0.181 = 18.1\% \end{array}\)

04

Calculation for the determination of probability in part c.

Given: Poisson distribution with

\(\mu = 10{\rm{ organisms }}/{{\rm{m}}^3}\)

Let \(x\;{{\rm{m}}^3}\)be the amount of discharge in. The mean is then the ratio multiplied by the number of \({m^3}\):

\(\mu = 10{\rm{ organisms }}/{{\rm{m}}^3} \times x\;{{\rm{m}}^3} = 10x{\rm{ organisms }}\)

We need to determine x such that:

\(P(X \ge 1) = 0.999\)

Formula Poisson probability:

\(P(X = k) = \frac{{{\mu ^k}{e^{ - \mu }}}}{{k!}}\)

Evaluate at \(k = 0\):

\(P(X = 0) = \frac{{{{(10x)}^0}{e^{ - 10x}}}}{{0!}} = {e^{ - 10x}}\)

05

Calculation for the determination of probability in part c.

Complement rule:

\(P({\mathop{\rm not}\nolimits} {\rm{A}}) = 1 - P(A)\)

Use the complement rule:

\(P(X \ge 1) = 1 - P(X = 0) = 1 - {e^{ - 10x}}\)

We want this probability to be equal to\(0.999\).

\(1 - {e^{ - 10x}} = 0.999\)

Subtract \(1\) from each side of the equation:

\( - {e^{ - 10x}} = - 0.001\)

Multiply each side of the equation by\( - 1\):

\({e^{ - 10x}} = 0.001\)

06

Calculation for the determination of probability in part c.

Take the natural logarithm of each side:

\(\ln {e^{ - 10x}} = \ln 0.001\)

Use the power property of logarithms \(\left( {\ln {a^b} = b\ln a} \right)\):

\( - 10x\ln e = \ln 0.001\)

The natural logarithm of e is l:

\( - 10x = \ln 0.001\)

Divide each side by\( - 10\):

\(x = \frac{{\ln 0.001}}{{ - 10}}\)

Evaluate:

\(x = - \frac{{\ln 0.001}}{{10}} \approx 0.6907755\)

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