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Three brothers and their wives decide to have children until each family has two female children. What is the pmf of X = the total number of male children born to the brothers? What is E(X), and how does it compare to the expected number of male children born to each brother?

Short Answer

Expert verified

The pmf is obtained as: \({\rm{nb(x;6,0}}{\rm{.5) = }}\left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}}{{\rm{x + 5}}}\\{\rm{5}}\end{array}} \right){\rm{0}}{\rm{.}}{{\rm{5}}^{\rm{6}}}{\rm{ \times 0}}{\rm{.}}{{\rm{5}}^{\rm{x}}}\) and the value of E(X) is: \({\rm{E(X) = 6}}\).

Step by step solution

01

Define Discrete random variables

A discrete random variable is one that can only take on a finite number of different values.

02

Step 2: Evaluating the pmf and E(X)

The probability mass function of the negative binomial random variable X with parameters r and p, for \({\rm{x}} \in {\rm{N}}\), is if there are r successes with a probability of success of p.

\({\rm{nb(x;r,p) = }}\left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}}{{\rm{x + r - 1}}}\\{{\rm{r - 1}}}\end{array}} \right){{\rm{p}}^{\rm{r}}}{{\rm{(1 - p)}}^{\rm{x}}}\)

Assume that the chances of the offspring being male or female are equal.

\(\begin{array}{c}{\rm{P = P(F)}}\\{\rm{ = P(M)}}\\{\rm{ = 0}}{\rm{.5}}\end{array}\)

This scenario may be transformed into one in which a single family intends to produce children until they have a total of six female offspring.

The random variable X would have a negative binomial distribution, and the number of male children may potentially go from zero to infinity, therefore we get \({\rm{x}} \in {{\rm{N}}_{\rm{0}}}\).

\(\begin{array}{c}{\rm{nb(x;6,0}}{\rm{.5) = }}\left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}}{{\rm{x + 6 - 1}}}\\{{\rm{6 - 1}}}\end{array}} \right){\rm{0}}{\rm{.}}{{\rm{5}}^{\rm{6}}}{{\rm{(1 - 0}}{\rm{.5)}}^{\rm{x}}}\\{\rm{ = }}\left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}}{{\rm{x + 5}}}\\{\rm{5}}\end{array}} \right){\rm{0}}{\rm{.}}{{\rm{5}}^{\rm{6}}}{\rm{ \times 0}}{\rm{.}}{{\rm{5}}^{\rm{x}}}\end{array}\)

For random variable X with negative binomial distribution and pmf nb(x;r, p), the following is true.

\(\begin{array}{c}{\rm{E(X) = }}\frac{{{\rm{r(1 - p)}}}}{{\rm{p}}}\\{\rm{V(X) = }}\frac{{{\rm{r(1 - p)}}}}{{{{\rm{p}}^{\rm{2}}}}}\end{array}\)

As a result, the anticipated value is

\(\begin{array}{c}{\rm{E(X) = }}\frac{{{\rm{r(1 - p)}}}}{{\rm{p}}}\\{\rm{ = }}\frac{{{\rm{6(1 - 0}}{\rm{.5)}}}}{{{\rm{0}}{\rm{.5}}}}\\{\rm{ = 6}}\end{array}\)

The predicted number is six, and if we repeat the process for a family with parameter \({\rm{r = 2}}\) (for a family with a single brother), we will get

\(\begin{array}{c}{\rm{E(}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{) = }}\frac{{{\rm{r(1 - p)}}}}{{\rm{p}}}\\{\rm{ = }}\frac{{{\rm{2(1 - 0}}{\rm{.5)}}}}{{{\rm{0}}{\rm{.5}}}}\\{\rm{ = 2}}\end{array}\)

As a result, we may deduce that the anticipated value of random variable X equals the total of the three brothers' expected values.

\({\rm{2 + 2 + 2 = 6}}\)

The expected value of X is the sum of the predicted number of male children born to each brother.

Therefore, the values are:

\(\begin{array}{c}{\rm{nb(x;6,0}}{\rm{.5) = }}\left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}}{{\rm{x + 5}}}\\{\rm{5}}\end{array}} \right){\rm{0}}{\rm{.}}{{\rm{5}}^{\rm{6}}}{\rm{ \times 0}}{\rm{.}}{{\rm{5}}^{\rm{x}}}\\{\rm{E(X) = 6}}\end{array}\)

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