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Ignaz Semmelweiss \((1818-1865)\) was the doctor who first encouraged other doctors to wash their hands with disinfectant before touching patients. Before the new procedure was established, the rate of infection at Dr. Semmelweiss's hospital was about \(10 \%\). Afterward the rate dropped to about \(1 \%\). Assuming the population proportion of infections was \(10 \%\), find the probability that the sample proportion will be \(1 \%\) or less, assuming a sample size of 200 . Start by checking the conditions required for the Central Limit Theorem to apply.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that the sample proportion of infections at Dr. Semmelweiss's hospital will be 1% or less, given a sample size of 200, is approximately 0.

Step by step solution

01

Check the Central Limit Theorem conditions

First, check if the sampling is done randomly. It is given that wash procedure is changed at the hospital. Thus, we can assume that the patients are randomly infected. Then the sample size is large enough if np and n(1-p) are greater than or equal to 10, where n is the sample size and p is the population proportion. Here, n=200 and p=0.10. So, np=200*0.10=20 and n(1-p)=200*(1-0.10)=180. Both values are greater than 10, thus the conditions are satisfied.
02

Calculate the standard deviation for the sample proportion

The standard deviation for the sample proportion can be calculated using the formula: \(\sigma=\sqrt{(p*(1-p))/n}\), where \(\sigma\) is the standard deviation, p is the population proportion, and n is the sample size. Substituting p=0.10 and n=200, we get \(\sigma=\sqrt{(0.10*(1-0.10))/200}=0.0212\)
03

Calculate the z-score for 1%

Z-score represents how many standard deviations an element is from the mean. The formula to calculate z-score is: z=(x-\( \mu \))/(\(\sigma\)), where x is the value from the dataset, \( \mu \) is the mean and \( \sigma \) is the standard deviation. Here, x=0.01 (1%), \( \mu \)=0.10 (10%) and \( \sigma \)=0.0212. Thus, the z-score is z=(0.01-0.10)/0.0212=-4.25.
04

Find the probability that the sample proportion will be 1% or less

To find the probability that the sample proportion is 1% or less, we need to find the probability that z is -4.25 or less. From the z-table, the probability corresponding to -4.25 is nearly 0 (it's actually 0.00001). Hence, the probability that the sample proportion will be 1% or less is approximately 0.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportion
The sample proportion is a fundamental concept in statistics. It represents the proportion of individuals in a sample with a particular characteristic, analogous to the population proportion, which represents this in the total population.
The term is denoted by \( \hat{p} \) and is calculated as \( \hat{p} = \frac{x}{n} \), where \( x \) is the number of successes in the sample and \( n \) is the sample size.
In the exercise provided, the sample proportion after introducing a hand wash procedure dropped to \( 1\% \). But before this introduction, the observed hospital infection rate was \( 10\% \), equivalent to the population proportion. So the exercise involves comparing this dramatic reduction to the standard population-level infection rate.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion or spread of a set of values. For our sample proportion, it's crucial to understand how much variation exists in this proportion from sample to sample.
The formula for standard deviation of a sample proportion is \( \sigma = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}} \). Here, \( p \) is the population proportion, and \( n \) is the sample size.
In this context, with \( p = 0.10 \) and \( n = 200 \), the calculated standard deviation is \( 0.0212 \). This small value suggests there is little variation in the proportion under the given conditions.
Z-Score
The z-score quantifies how many standard deviations an element is from the mean. It's instrumental in determining the position of a sample proportion relative to the assumed population proportion.
To compute the z-score, use the formula \( z = \frac{x - \mu}{\sigma} \), where \( x \) is our sample proportion, \( \mu \) is the average (or mean) proportion, and \( \sigma \) is the standard deviation.
In the example, the z-score for a \( 1\% \) sample proportion was calculated as \( -4.25 \), indicating that \( 0.01 \) is \( 4.25 \) standard deviations below the mean proportion (\( 0.10 \)). Such a large deviation implies a very unlikely occurrence under normal conditions.
Probability Calculation
Probability calculation translates the z-score into a meaningful probability that expresses how likely or unlikely a particular outcome is under the assumed normal distribution of the population.
In our problem, the objective was to find the probability that the sample proportion is \( 1\% \) or less given the original population proportion of \( 10\% \). After calculating the z-score as \( -4.25 \), the corresponding probability from standard z-tables was nearly \( 0 \) or about \( 0.00001 \).
This practically zero probability indicates that, under normal circumstances and without the hand wash procedure, observing such a low infection rate would be virtually impossible, highlighting the effectiveness of this intervention.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A 2016 Pew Research poll found that \(61 \%\) of U.S. adults believe that organic produce is better for health than conventionally grown varieties. Assume the sample size was 1000 and that the conditions for using the CLT are met. a. Find and interpret a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of U.S. adults to believe organic produce is better for health. b. Find and interpret an \(80 \%\) confidence interval for this population parameter. c. Which interval is wider? d. What happens to the width of a confidence interval as the confidence level decrease?

A 2017 survey of U.S. adults found the \(64 \%\) believed that freedom of news organization to criticize political leaders is essential to maintaining a strong democracy. Assume the sample size was 500 . a. How many people in the sample felt this way? b. Is the sample large enough to apply the Central Limit Theorem? Explain. Assume all other conditions are met. c. Find a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of U.S. adults who believe that freedom of news organizations to criticize political leaders is essential to maintaining a strong democracy. d. Find the width of the \(95 \%\) confidence interval. Round your answer to the nearest whole percent. e. Now assume the sample size was increased to 4500 and the percentage was still \(64 \%\). Find a \(95 \%\) confidence interval and report the width of the interval. f. What happened to the width of the confidence interval when the sample size was increased. Did it increase or decrease?

A 2017 survey of U.S. adults found that \(74 \%\) believed that protecting the rights of those with unpopular views is a very important component of a strong democracy. Assume the sample size was 1000 . a. How many people in the sample felt this way? b. Is the sample large enough to apply the Central Limit Theorem? Explain. Assume all other conditions are met. c. Find a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of U.S. adults who believe that protecting the rights of those with unpopular views is a very important component of a strong democracy. d. Find the width of the \(95 \%\) confidence interval. Round your answer to the nearest tenth percent. e. Now assume the sample size was 4000 and the percentage was still \(74 \%\). Find a \(95 \%\) confidence interval and report the width of the interval. f. What happened to the width of the confidence interval when the sample size was increased? Did it increase or decrease?

A Harris poll asked a sample of U.S. adults if they agreed with the statement "Artificial intelligence will widen the gap between the rich and poor in the U.S." Of those aged 18 to \(35,69 \%\) agreed with the statement. Of those aged 36 to \(50,60 \%\) agreed with the statement. A \(95 \%\) confidence interval for \(p_{1}-p_{2}\) (where \(p_{1}\) is the proportion of those aged \(18-35\) who agreed and \(p_{2}\) is the proportion of those aged \(36-50\) who agreed) is \((0.034,0.146) .\) Does the interval contain \(0 ?\) What does this tell us about the proportion of adults in these age groups who agree with the statement?

Assume your class has 30 students and you want a random sample of 10 of them. A student suggests asking each student to flip a coin, and if the coin comes up heads, then he or she is in your sample. Explain why this is not a good method.

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