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Assume your class has 30 students and you want a random sample of 10 of them. A student suggests asking each student to flip a coin, and if the coin comes up heads, then he or she is in your sample. Explain why this is not a good method.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The coin flip method suggested by the student is not a good method for obtaining a random sample of a fixed size from a larger population because it does not guarantee a sample size of exactly 10 students.

Step by step solution

01

Concept of Random Sampling

Random sampling refers to the selection of individuals from a larger population such that every individual has an equal chance of being chosen. The size of the sample selected through random sampling is predetermined and fixed.
02

Analyzing the Coin Flip Method

In the proposed coin flip method, each student flips a coin. Assuming the coin is fair, each student has an equal chance (0.5 or 50%) of getting heads (being selected) or tails (not being selected). The problem with this method is that the result of one coin flip (selection of one student) does not affect the results of the other coin flips (selection of other students). This is called independence in probability.
03

Problem with the Coin Flip Method

The problem with this method is that it does not guarantee a specific sample size. It's possible none of the students get heads and no one is selected, or all of the students get heads and the sample includes all 30 students. However, we want a sample of exactly 10 students, something that the coin flip method cannot guarantee.
04

Conclusion

Instead of the coin flip method, a better way to select a random sample of 10 students from a class of 30 would be to list all the students, attribute to each student a distinct number from 1 to 30, and use a random number generator to select 10 distinct numbers. The students with those numbers would form the sample.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability
Probability is a fundamental concept in statistics and mathematics that deals with the measure of how likely an event is to occur. It's given as a value between 0 and 1, where 0 means the event is impossible, and 1 means it is certain to happen. For example, flipping a fair coin gives a probability of 0.5 for landing on heads and 0.5 for tails, because these are equally likely outcomes.

Understanding probability helps us to predict the chance of one or more events happening and make better decisions based on those predictions. Probability can be calculated using different methods, such as analyzing the possible outcomes (classical probability) or using historical data (empirical probability). In educational settings, it's crucial for students to grasp the concept of probability to analyze data and understand the chances of various outcomes in real-life situations.
Independence in Probability
Independence in probability is a crucial concept that occurs when the outcome of one event does not influence or change the probability of another event. Two events are independent if knowing the outcome of one provides no information about the outcome of the other. For instance, flipping a fair coin multiple times; each flip is independent as the result of one flip does not affect the next.

In the context of our classroom scenario, although each student has an independent chance of flipping heads, the specified requirement is to have exactly 10 students in the sample, which cannot be ensured by independent trials of coin flips. Hence, a method that ensures independence while controlling sample size is imperative for a valid random sampling process.
Random Number Generator
A random number generator (RNG) is a tool or algorithm used to produce a sequence of numbers that lacks any pattern, that is, the numbers are random. RNGs are typically used where we need to make selections without bias, such as in lotteries, cryptography, and, importantly, in creating random samples for statistical analysis.

In educational exercises, RNGs can help ensure that each member of a population has an equal chance of being selected. For example, to select 10 students from a class of 30, we could assign each student a number from 1 to 30 and use an RNG to pick 10 distinct numbers. This method is superior to the coin flip since it both upholds the principle of random selection and guarantees the desired sample size.
Sample Size
The sample size in a statistical study is the number of observations or replicas included in the sample. It's a critical factor as it can greatly influence the reliability of the statistical inferences made about a population from that sample. The appropriate sample size depends on the goals of the study and the desired precision of the results.

A larger sample size generally reduces sampling error, leading to more precise estimates of a population parameter. In the classroom problem, a specific sample size of 10 was desired, illustrating the need for a sampling method that could guarantee this requirement without bias. The coin flip method lacked this certainty, emphasizing the importance of understanding and properly implementing sample size in study designs.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A recent Monmouth University poll found that 675 out of 1008 randomly selected people in the United States felt that college and universities with big sports programs placed too much emphasis on athletics over academics. Assuming the conditions for using the CLT were met, use the Minitab output provided to answer these questions. $$ \begin{aligned} &\text { Descriptive Statistics }\\\ &\begin{array}{rrrr} \mathrm{N} & \text { Event } & \text { Sample } \mathrm{p} & 95 \% \mathrm{Cl} \text { for } \mathrm{p} \\ \hline 1008 & 675 & 0.669643 & (0.639648,0.698643) \end{array} \end{aligned} $$ a. Complete this sentence: I am \(95 \%\) confident that the population proportion believing that colleges and universities with big sports programs place too much emphasis on athletics over academics is between _____ and _____. Report each number as a percentage rounded to one decimal place. b. Suppose a sports blogger wrote an article claiming that the majority of Americans believe that colleges and university with big sports programs place too much emphasis on athletics over academics. Does this confidence interval support the blogger's claim? Explain your reasoning.

Explain the difference between sampling with replacement and sampling without replacement. Suppose you have the names of 10 students, each written on a 3 -inch by 5 -inch notecard, and want to select two names. Describe both procedures.

According to a 2017 Gallup poll, \(80 \%\) of Americans report being afflicted by stress. Suppose a random sample of 1000 Americans is selected. a. What percentage of the sample would we expect to report being afflicted by stress? b. Verify that the conditions for the Central Limit Theorem are met. c. What is the standard error for this sample proportion? d. According to the Empirical Rule, there is a \(95 \%\) probability that the sample proportion will fall between what two values?

Has trust in the executive branch of government declined? A Gallup poll asked U.S. adults if they trusted the executive branch of government in 2008 and again in 2017. The results are shown in the table. $$ \begin{array}{|l|r|} \hline & \mathbf{2 0 0 8} & \mathbf{2 0 1 7} \\ \hline \text { Yes } & 623 & 460 \\ \hline \text { No } & 399 & 562 \\ \hline \text { Total } & 1022 & 1022 \\ \hline \end{array} $$ a. Find and compare the sample proportion for those who trusted the executive branch in 2008 and in 2017 . b. Find the \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the difference in the population proportions. Assume the conditions for using the confidence interval are met. Based on the interval, has there been a change in the proportion of U.S. adults who trust the executive branch? Explain.

A double-blind study using random assignment was done of pregnant women in Denmark. Women were given fish oil or a placebo during pregnancy. Their children were followed during the first 5 years of life to see if they developed asthma. The results are summarized in the table. (Bisgaard et al., "Fish Oil-Derived Fatty Acids in Pregnancy and Wheeze and Asthma in Offspring," New England Journal of Medicine, vol. 375: 2530-2539. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa1503734) $$ \begin{array}{|lcc|} \hline \text { Developed asthma } & \text { Fish Oil } & \text { Placebo } \\ \hline \text { Yes } & 58 & 83 \\ \hline \text { No } & 288 & 266 \\ \hline \end{array} $$ a. Calculate and compare the percentages of children who developed asthma in the fish oil group and in the placebo group. b. Check that the conditions for using a two-population confidence interval hold. c. Find the \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the difference in the proportion of children who develop asthma in the two groups. Based on your confidence interval, can we conclude that there is a difference in the population proportions?

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