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Assume your class has 30 students and you want a random sample of 10 of them. A student suggests asking each student to flip a coin, and if the coin comes up heads, then he or she is in your sample. Explain why this is not a good method.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The coin flip method suggested by the student is not a good method for obtaining a random sample of a fixed size from a larger population because it does not guarantee a sample size of exactly 10 students.

Step by step solution

01

Concept of Random Sampling

Random sampling refers to the selection of individuals from a larger population such that every individual has an equal chance of being chosen. The size of the sample selected through random sampling is predetermined and fixed.
02

Analyzing the Coin Flip Method

In the proposed coin flip method, each student flips a coin. Assuming the coin is fair, each student has an equal chance (0.5 or 50%) of getting heads (being selected) or tails (not being selected). The problem with this method is that the result of one coin flip (selection of one student) does not affect the results of the other coin flips (selection of other students). This is called independence in probability.
03

Problem with the Coin Flip Method

The problem with this method is that it does not guarantee a specific sample size. It's possible none of the students get heads and no one is selected, or all of the students get heads and the sample includes all 30 students. However, we want a sample of exactly 10 students, something that the coin flip method cannot guarantee.
04

Conclusion

Instead of the coin flip method, a better way to select a random sample of 10 students from a class of 30 would be to list all the students, attribute to each student a distinct number from 1 to 30, and use a random number generator to select 10 distinct numbers. The students with those numbers would form the sample.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability
Probability is a fundamental concept in statistics and mathematics that deals with the measure of how likely an event is to occur. It's given as a value between 0 and 1, where 0 means the event is impossible, and 1 means it is certain to happen. For example, flipping a fair coin gives a probability of 0.5 for landing on heads and 0.5 for tails, because these are equally likely outcomes.

Understanding probability helps us to predict the chance of one or more events happening and make better decisions based on those predictions. Probability can be calculated using different methods, such as analyzing the possible outcomes (classical probability) or using historical data (empirical probability). In educational settings, it's crucial for students to grasp the concept of probability to analyze data and understand the chances of various outcomes in real-life situations.
Independence in Probability
Independence in probability is a crucial concept that occurs when the outcome of one event does not influence or change the probability of another event. Two events are independent if knowing the outcome of one provides no information about the outcome of the other. For instance, flipping a fair coin multiple times; each flip is independent as the result of one flip does not affect the next.

In the context of our classroom scenario, although each student has an independent chance of flipping heads, the specified requirement is to have exactly 10 students in the sample, which cannot be ensured by independent trials of coin flips. Hence, a method that ensures independence while controlling sample size is imperative for a valid random sampling process.
Random Number Generator
A random number generator (RNG) is a tool or algorithm used to produce a sequence of numbers that lacks any pattern, that is, the numbers are random. RNGs are typically used where we need to make selections without bias, such as in lotteries, cryptography, and, importantly, in creating random samples for statistical analysis.

In educational exercises, RNGs can help ensure that each member of a population has an equal chance of being selected. For example, to select 10 students from a class of 30, we could assign each student a number from 1 to 30 and use an RNG to pick 10 distinct numbers. This method is superior to the coin flip since it both upholds the principle of random selection and guarantees the desired sample size.
Sample Size
The sample size in a statistical study is the number of observations or replicas included in the sample. It's a critical factor as it can greatly influence the reliability of the statistical inferences made about a population from that sample. The appropriate sample size depends on the goals of the study and the desired precision of the results.

A larger sample size generally reduces sampling error, leading to more precise estimates of a population parameter. In the classroom problem, a specific sample size of 10 was desired, illustrating the need for a sampling method that could guarantee this requirement without bias. The coin flip method lacked this certainty, emphasizing the importance of understanding and properly implementing sample size in study designs.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

a. If a rifleman's gunsight is adjusted correctly, but he has shaky arms. the bullets might be scattered widely around the bull's-eye target. Draw a sketch of the target with the bullet holes. Does this show variation (lack of precision) or bias? b. Draw a second sketch of the target if the shots are unbiased and have precision (little variation). The rifleman's aim is not perfect, so your sketches should show more than one bullet hole.

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Bob Ross hosted a weekly television show, The Joy of Painting, on PBS in which he taught viewers how to paint. During each episode, he produced a complete painting while teaching viewers how they could produce a similar painting. Ross completed 30,000 paintings in his lifetime. Although it was an art instruction show, PBS estimated that only \(10 \%\) of viewers painted along with Ross during his show based on surveys of viewers. For each of the following, also identify the population and explain your choice. a. Is the number 30,000 a parameter or a statistic? b. Is the number \(10 \%\) a parameter or a statistic?

According to data released in 2016 , \(69 \%\) of students in the United States enroll in college directly after high school graduation. Suppose a sample of 200 recent high school graduates is randomly selected. After verifying the conditions for the Central Limit Theorem are met, find the probability that at most \(65 \%\) enrolled in college directly after high school graduation. (Source: nces.ed.gov)

The Perry Preschool Project was created in the early \(1960 \mathrm{~s}\) by David Weikart in Ypsilanti, Michigan. In this project, 123 African American children were randomly assigned to one of two groups: One group enrolled in the Perry Preschool, and the other group did not. Follow-up studies were done for decades. One research question was whether attendance at preschool had an effect on high school graduation. The table shows whether the students graduated from regular high school or not and includes both boys and girls (Schweinhart et al. 2005 ). Find a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the difference in proportions, and interpret it. $$ \begin{array}{|lcc|} \hline & \text { Preschool } & \text { No Preschool } \\ \hline \text { Grad HS } & 37 & 29 \\ \hline \text { No Grad HS } & 20 & 35 \\ \hline \end{array} $$

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