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A 2017 survey of U.S. adults found the \(64 \%\) believed that freedom of news organization to criticize political leaders is essential to maintaining a strong democracy. Assume the sample size was 500 . a. How many people in the sample felt this way? b. Is the sample large enough to apply the Central Limit Theorem? Explain. Assume all other conditions are met. c. Find a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of U.S. adults who believe that freedom of news organizations to criticize political leaders is essential to maintaining a strong democracy. d. Find the width of the \(95 \%\) confidence interval. Round your answer to the nearest whole percent. e. Now assume the sample size was increased to 4500 and the percentage was still \(64 \%\). Find a \(95 \%\) confidence interval and report the width of the interval. f. What happened to the width of the confidence interval when the sample size was increased. Did it increase or decrease?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. 320 people in the sample felt this way. b. Yes, the sample is large enough to apply the Central Limit Theorem. c. The 95% confidence interval for the proportion of U.S. adults who feel this way is 0.599 to 0.681. d. The width of the 95% confidence interval is 0.082 or about 8% (rounded to the nearest whole percent). e. When the sample size was increased to 4,500, the 95% confidence interval became 0.621 to 0.659, and the width of the interval is 0.038 or about 4% (rounded to the nearest whole percent). f. When the sample size was increased, the width of the confidence interval decreased from 8% to 4%.

Step by step solution

01

How many people in the sample felt this way

To find out how many people felt a certain way, you multiply the percentage by the sample size. In this case, \(0.64 * 500 = 320\) people.
02

Is the sample large enough for the Central Limit Theorem?

In order for the Central Limit Theorem to apply, the sample size usually needs to be at least 30. In this case, the sample size is 500, which is much larger than 30. Therefore, the sample is large enough for the Central Limit Theorem to apply.
03

Find a 95% confidence interval

A 95% confidence interval can be found using the following formula: \(p 卤 (1.96*鈭歔p(1-p)/n)])\), where p is the proportion and n is the sample size. In this case, with 64% (or 0.64) and a sample size of 500, the calculations would look like this: \(0.64 卤 (1.96*sqrt[(0.64*(1-0.64)/500)])\) This gives a confidence interval of 0.599 and 0.681.
04

Find the width of the interval

To find the width of the confidence interval, subtract the lower bound from the upper bound. In this case, \(0.681 - 0.599 = 0.082\) or about 8% (rounded to the nearest whole percent).
05

Repeat Steps 3 and 4 with a sample size of 4,500

The calculations with a sample size of 4,500 would look like this: \(0.64 卤 (1.96*sqrt[(0.64*(1-0.64)/4500)]\) which gives a confidence interval of 0.621 and 0.659. The width of this interval is \(0.659 - 0.621 = 0.038\) or about 4% (rounded to the nearest whole percent).
06

What happened to the width of the confidence interval when the sample size was increased?

When the sample size was increased, the width of the confidence interval decreased from 8% to 4%. In general, increasing the sample size will cause the confidence interval to become narrower, indicating that the estimate is becoming more precise.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Central Limit Theorem
Understanding the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) is crucial when working with sample data, especially when estimating population parameters. The CLT states that when independent random variables are added, their properly normalized sum tends toward a normal distribution (informally a 'bell curve'), even if the original variables themselves are not normally distributed. With a large enough sample size, the sampling distribution of the sample mean will approximate a normal distribution regardless of the shape of the original data.

The power of the CLT lies in allowing statisticians and data analysts to make inferences about population parameters from sample statistics. The theorem is foundational for methods like hypothesis testing and the construction of confidence intervals, as it provides justification for treating the sample mean as if it was normally distributed. This is paramount when you only have one sample from the population but wish to draw conclusions about the entire population.

In the exercise given, the sample size of 500 is significantly larger than the minimum of 30. This figure is a rule of thumb indicating that for most practical purposes, the sampling distribution can be considered approximately normal. As a result, we can apply the CLT to analyze the survey data, which in turn allows us to use the z-score formula to calculate our confidence intervals.
Sample Size
Sample size has a direct impact on the precision of a statistical estimate or survey result. Generally, the larger the sample size, the smaller the margin of error, and the closer our sample statistic is likely to be to the actual population parameter. It's important to note that while larger samples can lead to more precise estimates, the relationship between sample size and precision is not linear but 'by the square root'.

For example, quadrupling the sample size does not reduce the margin of error by a factor of four; it only cuts it down by half. This diminishing return is why a balance must be struck between the desired precision and the resources available for data collection, as beyond a certain point, increasing the sample size produces only marginal improvements in precision relative to the additional cost and effort.

In the survey exercise, increasing the sample size from 500 to 4500 individuals substantially narrows the confidence interval's width, signifying an increase in precision. As the sample becomes larger, it better represents the population, and the estimate of the proportion believing in the importance of freedom for news organizations to criticize political leaders becomes more reliable.
Survey Data Analysis
Survey data analysis involves using statistical methods to interpret the results obtained from survey research. The process starts with determining the main research questions and defining the target population. Carefully designed surveys and appropriate sampling techniques are paramount to ensure that the data collected represents the population well.

After data collection, the analysis phase begins. Data analysts use descriptive statistics to summarize the data, inferential statistics to make predictions or inferences about a population based on sample data, and techniques to measure the margin of error or confidence intervals to quantify the uncertainty in estimates.

In our survey example concerning the belief in the importance of freedom of news organizations, the analysis involved computing a confidence interval to understand the variability of the opinion in the wider U.S. adult population. By applying the principles of the Central Limit Theorem, we could confidently report our findings with a quantified margin of error. When we increased the sample size, the confidence interval narrowed, indicating a more precise estimate, which is an essential consideration in survey data analysis.

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