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Binomial Probability Formula. In Exercises 13 and 14, answer the questions designed to help understand the rationale for the binomial probability formula.

Guessing Answers Standard tests, such as the SAT, ACT, or Medical College Admission Test (MCAT), typically use multiple choice questions, each with five possible answers (a, b, c, d, e), one of which is correct. Assume that you guess the answers to the first three questions.

a. Use the multiplication rule to find the probability that the first two guesses are wrong and the third is correct. That is, find P(WWC), where W denotes a wrong answerand C denotes a correct answer.

b.Beginning with WWC, make a complete list of the different possible arrangements of two wrong answers and one correct answer, then find the probability for each entry in the list.

c. Based on the preceding results, what is the probability of getting exactly one correct answer when three guesses are made?

Short Answer

Expert verified

a. P(WWC) is equal to 0.128.

b. The list of different possible arrangements is given below:

  • WWC
  • WCW
  • CWW

The probability corresponding to each arrangement is given below:

  • P(WWC) is equal to 0.128.
  • P(WCW) is equal to 0.128.
  • P(CWW) is equal to 0.128.

c. The probability of getting exactly one correct answer is equal to 0.384.

Step by step solution

01

Given information

A multiple choice-based exam is considered with five options, out of which one is correct.

Three such questions are answered.

02

Probability Using Multiplication Rule

a.

Here, W denotes a wrong answer, and C denotes a correct answer.

The probability of guessing a correct answer is computed below:

PC=15=0.2

The probability of incorrectly guessing the answer is computed below:

PW=1-PC=1-0.2=0.8

The probability of guessing the first two wrong answers and the third correct answer when a total of three questions are answered is computed below:

PWWC=PWPWPC=0.80.80.2=0.128

Thus, PWWC=0.128.

03

Different arrangements

b.

Consider the following arrangements of answers to three questions when exactly two of them are wrong and one is correct:

WWCWCWCWW

P(WWC) is equal to 0.128.

Now,

PWCW=PWPCPW=0.80.20.8=0.128

Thus, P(WCW) is equal to 0.128.

Now,

PCWW=PCPWPW=0.20.80.8=0.128

Thus, P(CWW) is equal to 0.128.

04

Probability of exactly one correct answer

c.

The probability of exactly onecorrect answer is computed as follows:

P1correctanswer=PWWC+PWCW+PCWW=0.128+0.128+0.128=0.384

Therefore, the probability of getting exactly one correct answer is equal to 0.384.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Ultimate Binomial Exercises! Exercises 37鈥40 involve finding binomial probabilities, finding parameters, and determining whether values are significantly high or low by using the range rule of thumb and probabilities.

M&Ms Data Set 27 鈥淢&M Weights鈥 in Appendix B includes data from 100 M&M candies, and 19 of them are green. Mars, Inc. claims that 16% of its plain M&M candies are green. For the following, assume that the claim of 16% is true, and assume that a sample consists of 100 M&Ms.

a. Use the range rule of thumb to identify the limits separating values that are significantly low and those that are significantly high. Based on the results, is the result of 19 green M&Ms significantly high?

b. Find the probability of exactly 19 green M&Ms.

c. Find the probability of 19 or more green M&Ms.

d. Which probability is relevant for determining whether the result of 19 green M&Ms is significantly high: the probability from part (b) or part (c)? Based on the relevant probability, is the result of 19 green M&Ms significantly high?

e. What do the results suggest about the 16% claim by Mars, Inc.?

In Exercises 15鈥20, assume that random guesses are made for eight multiple choice questions on an SAT test, so that there are n = 8 trials, each with probability of success (correct) given by p = 0.20. Find the indicated probability for the number of correct answers.

Find the probability of no correct answers.

In Exercises 21鈥25, refer to the accompanyingtable, which describes the numbers of adults in groups of five who reported sleepwalking (based on data from 鈥淧revalence and Comorbidity of Nocturnal Wandering In the U.S. Adult General Population,鈥 by Ohayon et al., Neurology, Vol. 78, No. 20).

Use the range rule of thumb to determine whether 4 is a significantly high number of sleepwalkersin a group of 5 adults.

x

P(x)

0

0.172

1

0.363

2

0.306

3

0.129

4

0.027

5

0.002

In a USA Todaypoll, subjects were asked if passwords should be replaced with biometric security, such as fingerprints. The results from that poll have been used to create the accompanying table. Does this table describe a probability distribution? Why or why not?

Response

P(x)

Yes

0.53

No

0.17

Not Sure

0.3

In Exercises 25鈥28, find the probabilities and answer the questions.

Whitus v. Georgia In the classic legal case of Whitus v. Georgia, a jury pool of 90 people was supposed to be randomly selected from a population in which 27% were minorities. Among the 90 people selected, 7 were minorities. Find the probability of getting 7 or fewer minorities if the jury pool was randomly selected. Is the result of 7 minorities significantly low? What does the result suggest about the jury selection process?

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