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Lakeside Bakery bakes fresh pies every morning. The daily demand for its apple pies is a random variable with (discrete) distribution, based on experience, given by:

Demand

5

10

15

20

25

30

Probability

10%

20%

25%

25%

15%

5%


Each apple pie costs the bakery \(6.75 to make and is sold for \)17.99. Unsold apple pies at the end of the day are purchased by a nearby soup kitchen for 99 cents each. Assume no goodwill cost.

a. If the company decided to bake 15 apple pies each day, what would be its expected profit?

b. Based on the demand distribution above, how many apple pies should the company bake each day to maximize its expected profit?

Short Answer

Expert verified

Answer

Any statistical function that specifies all potential outcomes of a random variable within a certain range of values is referred to as a "probability distribution."

Step by step solution

01

Goodwill cost

Goodwill is an intangible asset related to the acquisition of one firm by another. In particular, goodwill is recognized when the purchase price exceeds the total fair values of all visible solid assets and intangible assets bought in the acquisition, as well as the liabilities, are taken in the process. Some examples of goodwill include the value of a company's brand name, a strong customer base, excellent customer relations, good staff relations, and any patents or proprietary technologies.

02

(a) If the company decided to bake 15 apple pies each day, what would be its expected profit

The selling price per pie is $ 17.99 and the cost per pie is $ 6.75.

Calculation of profit

Profit = Selling price – Cost price

Profit = $ 17.99 - $ 6.775

Profit = $ 11.24

The expected profit for 15 apple pies will be

=$ 11.24 × 15

= $ 168.60

Therefore, the expected profit from selling 15 apple pies will be $ 168.603

03

(b) Based on the demand distribution above, how many apple pies should the company bake each day to maximize its expected profit?

The cost of underestimating the demand is considered a loss of profit. calculate the cost of underestimating, as shown below:

Cu=SellingPrice-CostPrice=$17.99-$6.75=$11.24

The cost of overestimating the demand is considered a loss arising due to selling the particular unit at salvage value. The salvage value is $ 0.99.

Therefore, the cost of overestimating the demand becomes

Co=Costprice-Salvagevalue=$6.75-$0.99=$5.76

The optimal probability of not being sold, denoted by P, is calculated below:

P≥CuCo+Cu=$11.24$11.24+$5.76=0.6612

To determine the corresponding number of units compute the cumulative probability.

The optimal probability of not being sold, denoted by P, is calculated below:

To determine the corresponding number of units compute the cumulative probability

From the above distribution data. The probability of 0.6612 corresponds to 20 units.

Thus, the company should take 20 units every day to maximize its expected profit.

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Question: Develop an MRP planning schedule showing gross and net requirements and order release and order receipt dates.

SY Manufacturers (SYM) is producing T-shirts in three colors: red, blue, and white. The monthly demand for each color is 3,000 units. Each shirt requires 0.5 pounds of raw cotton that is imported from Luft-Geshfet-Textile (LGT) Company in Brazil. The purchasing price per pound is \(2.50 (paid only when the cotton arrives at SYM’s facilities) and the transportation cost by sea is \)0.20 per pound. The traveling time from LGT’s facility in Brazil to the SYM facility in the United States is two weeks. The cost of placing a cotton order, by SYM, is $100 and the annual interest rate that SYM is facing is 20 percent.

a. What is the optimal order quantity of cotton?

b. How frequently should the company order cotton?

c. Assuming that the first order is needed on April 1, when should SYM place the order?

d. How many orders will SYM place during the next year?

e. What is the resulting annual holding cost?

f. What does the resulting annual ordering cost?

g. If the annual interest cost is only 5 percent, how will it affect the annual number of orders, the optimal batch size, and the average inventory? (You are not expected to provide a numerical answer to this question. Just describe the direction of the change and explain your answer.)

Not all the items in your office supply store are evenly distributed as far as demand is concerned, so you decide to forecast demand to help plan your stock. Past data for legal-sized yellow tablets for August are

Week 1

300

Week 2

400

Week 3

600

Week 4

700

  1. Using a three-week moving average, what would you forecast the next week to be?
  2. Using exponential smoothing witha =0.20, if the exponential forecast for week 3 was estimated as the average of the first two weeks [(300 + 400)/2 = 350], what would you forecast week 5 to be?
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