/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 6 If a \(90 \%\) confidence interv... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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If a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the difference of proportions contains some positive and some negative values, what can we conclude about the relationship between \(p_{1}\) and \(p_{2}\) at the \(90 \%\) confidence level?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The interval spanning zero indicates no significant difference between \(p_1\) and \(p_2\) at 90% confidence level.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Confidence Intervals

First, recall that a confidence interval provides a range of values within which we can be fairly certain the true parameter lies. In this problem, the confidence interval is for the difference between two proportions, denoted as \(p_1 - p_2\).
02

Analyzing the Interval

The confidence interval given contains both positive and negative values, which means the interval spans zero. This indicates that zero is a plausible value for the difference between \(p_1\) and \(p_2\).
03

Interpreting Inclusion of Zero

If zero is within the confidence interval, it suggests there is no statistical evidence to support that there is a significant difference between \(p_1\) and \(p_2\) at the 90% confidence level.
04

Conclusion on Relationship

Since the interval includes zero, we cannot conclude that one proportion is definitively greater than the other at the 90% confidence level. There is not enough evidence to reject the hypothesis that the proportions are equal.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Confidence Interval
Confidence intervals are a crucial concept in statistics, providing a way to estimate the range within which a population parameter lies, based on sample data. It's like saying, "We're pretty sure the true value is somewhere around here." For instance, if you throw a dart at a target, the confidence interval helps you express the probable area where the dart might land, given your aim. Specifically, a confidence interval for the difference of proportions, such as between two groups' success rates, helps gauge whether group differences are meaningful. This range helps assess if the difference between the two proportions (e.g., treatment success rates of two medicines) might be due to chance. If this interval spans both positive and negative values, it indicates that zero is included, which means the proportions are plausibly the same. Understanding the interval's endpoint conditions is key:
  • If the interval is entirely positive, it suggests the first proportion is likely greater than the second.
  • If entirely negative, the second proportion might be larger.
  • Including zero means no conclusive evidence to suggest a difference. Exactly where the true difference lies is uncertain, but likely anywhere in this range.
Proportions
Proportions represent parts of a whole, often expressed as percentages. In statistics, when we talk about proportions, we're usually measuring a specific attribute within a population, such as the proportion of voters favoring a candidate. Calculating the difference between two proportions involves comparing these parts from different groups. When you take two proportions, say, the rate of students passing an exam in one school versus another, the difference tells you how performance diverges. Proportions are useful because:
  • They allow comparisons between different entities.
  • Changes in proportions can reveal trends or shifts when measured over time.
  • Proportions can be used in tests of statistical significance to determine if the observed differences are meaningful.
If a confidence interval for the difference between two proportions includes zero, it suggests the observed difference might just be random fluctuation rather than a real difference.
Statistical Significance
Statistical significance is a term that describes how sure we are that a result didn't happen by random chance. It's a way to determine whether an effect or relationship really exists in the data we're examining, such as the difference in proportions between two groups.In hypothesis testing, we often talk about p-values. A result is generally considered statistically significant if the p-value is less than a pre-determined threshold (like 0.05). However, when handling confidence intervals, significance is inferred differently.If a confidence interval for a difference between two proportions, such as \(p_1 - p_2\), includes zero:
  • We cannot claim statistical significance at the given confidence level.
  • The findings suggest that the observed difference could simply be due to random chance.
  • Thus, one should be cautious about concluding that one proportion is definitively different from the other without further evidence.
Statistical significance is critical because it helps researchers and policymakers make informed decisions based on the weight of evidence.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

L Lifestyle: Smoking In a survey of 1000 large corporations, 250 said that, given a choice between a job candidate who smokes and an equally qualified nonsmoker, the nonsmoker would get the job (USA Today). (a) Let \(p\) represent the proportion of all corporations preferring a nonsmoking candidate. Find a point estimate for \(p\). (b) Find a \(0.95\) confidence interval for \(p\). (c) Interpretation As a news writer, how would you report the survey results regarding the proportion of corporations that hire the equally qualified nonsmoker? What is the margin of error based on a \(95 \%\) confidence interval?

Josh and Kendra each calculated a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the difference of means using a Student's \(t\) distribution for random samples of size \(n_{1}=20\) and \(n_{2}=31\). Kendra followed the convention of using the smaller sample size to compute d.f. \(=19 .\) Josh used his calculator and Satterthwaite's approximation and obtained \(d . f . \approx 36.3 .\) Which confidence interval is shorter? Which confidence interval is more conservative in the sense that the margin of error is larger?

Fishing: Barbless Hooks In a combined study of northern pike, cutthroat trout, rainbow trout, and lake trout, it was found that 26 out of 855 fish died when caught and released using barbless hooks on flies or lures. All hooks were removed from the fish (Source: A National Symposium on Catch and Release Fishing, Humboldt State University Press). (a) Let \(p\) represent the proportion of all pike and trout that die (i.e., \(p\) is the mortality rate) when caught and released using barbless hooks. Find a point estimate for \(p\). (b) Find a \(99 \%\) confidence interval for \(p\), and give a brief explanation of the meaning of the interval. (c) Check Requirements Is the normal approximation to the binomial justified in this problem? Explain.

Archaeology: Ireland Inorganic phosphorous is a naturally occurring element in all plants and animals, with concentrations increasing progressively up the food chain (fruit \(<\) vegetables \(<\) cereals \(<\) nuts \(<\) corpse). Geochemical surveys take soil samples to determine phosphorous content (in ppm, parts per million). A high phosphorous content may or may not indicate an ancient burial site, food storage site, or even a garbage dump. The Hill of Tara is a very important archaeological site in Ireland. It is by legend the seat of Ireland's ancient high kings (Reference: Tara, An Archaeological Survey by Conor Newman, Royal Irish Academy, Dublin). Independent random samples from two regions in Tara gave the following phosphorous measurements (in ppm). Assume the population distributions of phosphorous are mound-shaped and symmetric for these two regions. $$ \begin{aligned} &\text { Region I: } x_{1} ; n_{1}=12\\\ &\begin{array}{llllll} 540 & 810 & 790 & 790 & 340 & 800 \\ 890 & 860 & 820 & 640 & 970 & 720 \end{array} \end{aligned} $$ $$ \begin{aligned} &\text { Region II: } x_{2} ; n_{2}=16\\\ &\begin{array}{llllllll} 750 & 870 & 700 & 810 & 965 & 350 & 895 & 850 \\ 635 & 955 & 710 & 890 & 520 & 650 & 280 & 993 \end{array} \end{aligned} $$ (a) Use a calculator with mean and standard deviation keys to verify that \(\bar{x}_{1} \approx 747.5, s_{1} \approx 170.4, \bar{x}_{2} \approx 738.9\), and \(s_{2} \approx 212.1 .\) (b) Let \(\mu_{1}\) be the population mean for \(x_{1}\) and let \(\mu_{2}\) be the population mean for \(x_{2} .\) Find a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for \(\mu_{1}-\mu_{2}\). (c) Interpretation Explain what the confidence interval means in the context of this problem. Does the interval consist of numbers that are all positive? all negative? of different signs? At the \(90 \%\) level of confidence, is one region more interesting than the other from a geochemical perspective? (d) Check Requirements Which distribution (standard normal or Student's \(t\). did you use? Why?

Finance: \(\mathrm{P} / \mathrm{E}\) Ratio The price of a share of stock divided by a company's estimated future earnings per share is called the P/E ratio. High P/E ratios usually indicate "growth" stocks, or maybe stocks that are simply overpriced. Low \(\mathrm{P} / \mathrm{E}\) ratios indicate "value" stocks or bargain stocks. A random sample of 51 of the largest companies in the United States gave the following P/E ratios (Reference: Forbes). $$ \begin{array}{rrrrrrrrrrrr} 11 & 35 & 19 & 13 & 15 & 21 & 40 & 18 & 60 & 72 & 9 & 20 \\ 29 & 53 & 16 & 26 & 21 & 14 & 21 & 27 & 10 & 12 & 47 & 14 \\ 33 & 14 & 18 & 17 & 20 & 19 & 13 & 25 & 23 & 27 & 5 & 16 \\ 8 & 49 & 44 & 20 & 27 & 8 & 19 & 12 & 31 & 67 & 51 & 26 \\ 19 & 18 & 32 & & & & & & & & & \end{array} $$ (a) Use a calculator with mean and sample standard deviation keys to verify that \(\bar{x} \approx 25.2\) and \(s \approx 15.5\). (b) Find a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the \(\mathrm{P} / \mathrm{E}\) population mean \(\mu\) of all large U.S. companies. (c) Find a \(99 \%\) confidence interval for the \(\mathrm{P} / \mathrm{E}\) population mean \(\mu\) of all large U.S. companies. (d) Interpretation Bank One (now merged with J.P. Morgan) had a P/E of 12 , AT\&T Wireless had a \(\mathrm{P} / \mathrm{E}\) of 72 , and Disney had a \(\mathrm{P} / \mathrm{E}\) of 24 . Examine the confidence intervals in parts (b) and (c). How would you describe these stocks at the time the sample was taken? (e) Check Requirements In previous problems, we assumed the \(x\) distribution was normal or approximately normal. Do we need to make such an assumption in this problem? Why or why not? Hint: See the central limit theorem in Section \(6.5\).

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