/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 17 Fishing: Barbless Hooks In a com... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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Fishing: Barbless Hooks In a combined study of northern pike, cutthroat trout, rainbow trout, and lake trout, it was found that 26 out of 855 fish died when caught and released using barbless hooks on flies or lures. All hooks were removed from the fish (Source: A National Symposium on Catch and Release Fishing, Humboldt State University Press). (a) Let \(p\) represent the proportion of all pike and trout that die (i.e., \(p\) is the mortality rate) when caught and released using barbless hooks. Find a point estimate for \(p\). (b) Find a \(99 \%\) confidence interval for \(p\), and give a brief explanation of the meaning of the interval. (c) Check Requirements Is the normal approximation to the binomial justified in this problem? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) 0.0304; b) (0.01506, 0.04574); c) Yes, conditions for normal approximation are met.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the Point Estimate

The point estimate for the proportion \( p \) is given by the formula for a sample proportion: \( \hat{p} = \frac{x}{n} \), where \( x \) is the number of successes (or deaths, in this context), and \( n \) is the total sample size. Here, \( x = 26 \) and \( n = 855 \). Thus, \( \hat{p} = \frac{26}{855} \approx 0.0304 \). This means that approximately 3.04% of the fish die when caught and released.
02

Calculate the Standard Error

To find the confidence interval, we first need the standard error (SE) of the proportion. SE is calculated as \( \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}} \). Using \( \hat{p} = 0.0304 \) and \( n = 855 \), the SE is \( \sqrt{\frac{0.0304 \times 0.9696}{855}} \approx 0.00594 \).
03

Find the Z-Score for 99% Confidence

For a 99% confidence interval, we find the z-score that corresponds to the central 99%. Using a standard normal distribution table, the z-score is approximately 2.576.
04

Calculate the Confidence Interval

The 99% confidence interval is given by \( \hat{p} \pm z_{\alpha/2} \times SE \). Here, \( \hat{p} = 0.0304 \), \( z_{\alpha/2} = 2.576 \), and \( SE = 0.00594 \). Calculate: \( 0.0304 \pm 2.576 \times 0.00594 \). This results in an interval of \( (0.01506, 0.04574) \). This means we are 99% confident that the true proportion \( p \) of fish that die is between approximately 1.506% and 4.574%.
05

Justify Normal Approximation

The normal approximation to the binomial distribution can be used if both \( n \hat{p} \geq 5 \) and \( n(1-\hat{p}) \geq 5 \). Check: \( n \hat{p} = 855 \times 0.0304 \approx 26 \), and \( n(1-\hat{p}) = 855 \times 0.9696 \approx 829 \). Both conditions are satisfied. Therefore, the normal approximation is justified.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Mortality Rate
The mortality rate represents the proportion of a population that dies over a certain period or in a specific scenario. In the context of our exercise, the mortality rate refers to the fraction of fish that perish after being caught and released using barbless hooks. This statistic is important for understanding the impacts of fishing practices on fish populations.

The point estimate of the mortality rate is calculated using the sample proportion formula \( \hat{p} = \frac{x}{n} \). Here, \( x \) is the number of fish that died, which is 26, and \( n \) is the total sample size, which is 855. By applying this formula, we get \( \hat{p} = \frac{26}{855} \approx 0.0304 \), or 3.04%.

In simple terms, this means that we estimate around 3.04% of the fish die when caught and released with this method. Knowing this rate helps to make better-informed decisions on regulating fishing practices to protect fish populations.
Confidence Interval
A confidence interval gives a range of values within which the true mortality rate is estimated to fall, with a certain level of confidence. For our exercise, we're deriving a 99% confidence interval for the mortality rate of the fish. This statistical range means that if we were to repeat our study multiple times, 99% of the confidence intervals would contain the true mortality rate.

To calculate the confidence interval, we use the standard formula: \( \hat{p} \pm z_{\alpha/2} \times SE \), where the sample proportion \( \hat{p} = 0.0304 \), the z-score \( z_{\alpha/2} \) for a 99% confidence level is 2.576, and the standard error (SE) is calculated as \( \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}} \), previously found to be approximately 0.00594.

In our calculations, this results in a confidence interval of approximately (0.01506, 0.04574). This means we can be 99% confident that the actual proportion of fish deaths lies between 1.506% and 4.574%. This concept ensures researchers can express uncertainty in their estimates while still providing useful information.
Normal Approximation
Normal approximation is a useful statistical method for estimating binomial probabilities using the normal distribution. This approach simplifies calculations, especially when dealing with large sample sizes.

To determine if using the normal approximation is appropriate, specific conditions must be met:
  • \( n \hat{p} \geq 5 \)
  • \( n(1-\hat{p}) \geq 5 \)
In our exercise, \( n \hat{p} = 855 \times 0.0304 \approx 26 \) and \( n(1-\hat{p}) = 855 \times 0.9696 \approx 829 \). Both conditions are satisfied here, confirming the normal approximation's validity. This means we can safely use the normal distribution for our calculations, ensuring accurate and reliable results even with a larger scale binomial scenario.
Standard Error
The standard error (SE) illustrates the extent of variability in a sample statistic compared to the actual population parameter. It reflects how accurately a sample proportion, like the mortality rate, can estimate the true population proportion.

To find the standard error of the sample proportion in our exercise, apply the formula \( SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}} \), where \( \hat{p} = 0.0304 \) and \( n = 855 \). The calculated SE is roughly 0.00594.

This figure suggests the extent of variability or precision in our mortality rate estimate of 3.04%. A smaller standard error would indicate that the estimate is more reliable, providing clearer insights and allowing better identification of trends or issues in fish mortality from catch-and-release practices.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

If a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the difference of proportions contains some positive and some negative values, what can we conclude about the relationship between \(p_{1}\) and \(p_{2}\) at the \(90 \%\) confidence level?

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