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91Ó°ÊÓ

Late shows Some TV shows begin after their scheduled times when earlier programs run late. According to a network's records, about \(3 \%\) of its shows start late. To find the probability that three consecutive shows on this network start on time, can we multiply (0.97)(0.97)(0.97)\(?\) Why or why not?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Yes, we can multiply (0.97)(0.97)(0.97) if the events are independent.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Problem

We want to determine the probability that three consecutive TV shows on a network start on time given that there's a 3% chance a show starts late. This implies there's a 97% chance a show starts on time.
02

Probability of One Show Starting On Time

The probability that one show starts on time is given as 97%, which is equivalent to a probability of 0.97.
03

Independent Events

To multiply the probabilities of each event happening (three shows starting on time), we must assume these events are independent. This means the start time of one show does not affect the others.
04

Calculating Probability for Three Consecutive Events

If the start times are independent, the probability of three consecutive shows starting on time is accomplished by multiplying their probabilities: \[P(\text{all three on time}) = 0.97 \times 0.97 \times 0.97 = 0.97^3\]
05

Performing the Calculation

Calculate \(0.97^3\): \[0.97 \times 0.97 \times 0.97 = 0.912673\] This result is approximately 0.9127.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Independent Events
When we talk about probability and events, the term "independent events" refers to events where the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of another. Imagine tossing a coin; whether it lands on heads or tails the first time does not change the outcome of the next toss. In the context of the original exercise, each TV show's start time is an independent event. This means that whether or not the preceding show started late or on time has no impact on the next show's start time.

Recognizing events as independent is crucial when calculating probabilities for multiple events. If one show's start time doesn’t impact another, we can multiply the probabilities of individual events to get the overall probability of all events occurring together.

In simpler terms:
  • If Event A is independent of Event B, the probability of both happening is simply the probability of A times the probability of B.
  • In our example, each show having a 97% chance to start on time is independent of other shows.
Recognizing independence allows straightforward multiplication of probabilities.
Consecutive Events
"Consecutive events" occur one right after the other in a sequence. They can often be easily visualized along a timeline or series of steps. In terms of probability, when we consider consecutive events, we are interested in the outcomes occurring in a row or one directly after another.

In the exercise, we are considering three TV shows starting on time in a consecutive manner without interruption. Each event (or TV show) in this sequence must occur as expected for the overall sequence result to hold.

The key to handling consecutive events in probability is ensuring whether these events influence each other or not. If they do not, as is the case in our situation with TV shows, then they are independent, allowing us to multiply their probabilities to predict the chance of all events occurring consecutively.
  • Think of consecutive events as needing each individual part to work correctly in sequence.
  • If any part fails (like one show starting late), the entire sequence does not occur as planned.
This is why calculating the probability of consecutive independent events involves multiplication.
Calculating Probability
Calculating probability involves determining the likelihood of an event or series of events occurring. The basic formula for the probability of a single event happening is the desired outcomes over the total possible outcomes. When calculating probabilities for multiple events, especially independent events, it becomes a bit more complex but still manageable.

The exercise involves calculating the probability of three shows starting on time consecutively. Since these events are independent, we can use the multiplication rule:
  • First, figure out the probability of one event (one show starts on time), which we already know is 0.97.
  • Then, multiply the probability of each event by itself for the number of events (three shows in this case).

So, we perform:
\[P(\text{all three on time}) = 0.97 \times 0.97 \times 0.97 = 0.97^3\]

Computing this gives us approximately 0.9127. This figure represents the probability that all three consecutive shows on this network will start on time without delay. The simplicity of multiplying 0.97 for the number of events is a powerful concept as long as we ensure that all conditions for independence are met.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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