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91Ó°ÊÓ

Lost Internet sites Internet sites often vanish or move, so that references to them can't be followed. In fact, \(13 \%\) of Internet sites referenced in major scientific journals are lost within two years after publication. \({ }^{22}\) If we randomly select seven Internet references, from scientific journals, what is the probability that at least one of them doesn't work two years later?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability is approximately 0.623.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Given Information

We are given that \( 13\% \) of Internet sites are lost within two years after publication, which means \( p = 0.13 \) is the probability that an Internet reference is lost. We need to find the probability that at least one out of seven references is lost.
02

Understand the Complementary Probability

To find the probability that at least one is lost, it is easier to use the complement rule: \( P(\text{at least one is lost}) = 1 - P(\text{none are lost}) \). Hence, we first calculate the probability that none are lost.
03

Calculate the Probability of None Lost

The probability that one particular site is not lost is \( 1 - p = 0.87 \). Thus, for all seven references to not be lost, \( P(\text{none lost}) = 0.87^7 \).
04

Compute Complementary Probability

Now, using the complement rule, the probability that at least one of them is lost is: \[ P(\text{at least one is lost}) = 1 - (0.87)^7 \].
05

Solve the Expression

Calculate the value: \[ 0.87^7 = 0.37676 \] (approximately), hence \( P(\text{at least one is lost}) = 1 - 0.37676 = 0.62324 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Complement Rule
When dealing with probabilities, sometimes it's easier to calculate the opposite scenario and then subtract it from one. This is where the complement rule comes into play. When you want to find the probability of an event occurring, and it's less straightforward to calculate, you can determine the probability of it not happening and then subtract that probability from 1.

In mathematical terms, if the probability of an event happening is given by \( P(A) \), then the probability of it not happening (the complement) is \( P(A^c) = 1 - P(A) \). By using the complement rule, calculation becomes simpler and sometimes less error-prone, especially in cases involving "at least one" type questions.

In our exercise, the complement rule helps us find the probability that at least one out of seven references is lost after two years. We find the probability that none are lost, then subtract that from one to achieve the desired probability.
Scientific Journals
Scientific journals are a key source of research findings and knowledge dissemination in academia. They document new developments, hypotheses, and discoveries across various fields.

These journals are peer-reviewed, ensuring that the information they provide is credible and reliable. When references from internet sites are cited in these journals, it highlights the intersection of modern digital resources and traditional publishing. However, the dynamic nature of the internet can pose challenges, such as the risk of losing access to these digital references over time.

Despite these challenges, referencing internet resources remains important. It provides a breadth to research that includes up-to-date information and diverse perspectives that might not be captured in print sources alone.
Internet References
Internet references have become an integral part of academic research, providing access to a vast amount of information that wasn't previously possible.

The use of internet references allows researchers to:
  • Access the most current data and developments
  • Include multi-media content such as videos and animations that aren't possible in print
  • Collaborate with researchers globally through online platforms
However, the ephemeral nature of internet sites poses a risk to the longevity of these references. As reported in the problem, a significant portion of these resources can vanish within a short span, leading to issues in accessing cited materials.

To mitigate these issues, researchers and publishers are developing digital preservation techniques and standards, like DOIs, to ensure references remain accessible over time.
Probability Calculation
The process of determining probability is a fundamental concept in statistics. It involves the likelihood of events happening within a given set of circumstances.

To compute the probability that at least one out of several events occurs, as in our exercise, it can be more practical to calculate the probability of none of these events happening and then use the complement rule. This often simplifies the process especially when dealing with multiple events.

The calculation starts by figuring out the probability of a single event not occurring, and then extending this to multiple events using exponentiation. For instance, if the chance of one event not happening is \(1 - p\), for \(n\) independent events it's \((1 - p)^n\). Applying the complement rule gives the probability of at least one event occurring, making this method both effective and efficient in probability calculations.

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