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I want red! A candy maker offers Child and Adult bags of jelly beans with different color mixes. The company claims that the Child mix has 30% red jelly beans while the Adult mix contains 15% red jelly beans. Assume that the candy maker鈥檚 claim is true. Suppose we take a random sample of 50jelly beans from the Child mix and a separate random sample of 100jelly beans from the Adult mix.

(a) Find the probability that the proportion of red jelly beans in the Child sample is less than or equal to the proportion of red jelly beans in the Adult sample. Show your work

(b) Suppose that the Child and Adult samples contain an equal proportion of red jelly beans. Based on your result in part (a), would this give you a reason to doubt the company鈥檚 claim? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified

From the given information,

a) The probability that the proportion of red jelly beans in the Child sample is less than or equal to the proportion of red jelly beans in the Adult sample is 0.0212.

b) Yes, the company claim can be doubted.

Step by step solution

01

Part (a) Step 1: Given Information

It is given in the question that,

The proportion of red jelly beans in the child mix =30%

The proportion of red jelly beans in the adult mix =15%

Random samples of jelly beans taken from the Child Mix =50

Random samples of jelly beans taken from the Adult Mix =100

02

Part(a) Step 2: Explanation

Red jelly beans in bags for children and p2is the actual proportion of red jelly beans in bags for adults, the sampling distribution of p1-p2is Normal where p1=30100=0.30,p2=15100=0.15because:

localid="1650446424637" n1p1=500.30=15

localid="1650446436131" n1(1p1)=500.70=35

localid="1650446447320" n2p2=1000.15=15

localid="1650446461437" n2(1p2)=1000.85=85

Are at least10, the sampling distribution ofp^1p^2is approximately Normal. Its mean is:

p2=p1p2

=0.30-0.15

=0.15

03

Part(a) Step 3: Explanation

The standard deviation is :

hh^2=p1(1p1)n1+p2(1p2)n2

=0.3(10.3)50+0.15(10.15)100

=0.0740

Hence,

p(p^1p^20)=p(z00.150.0740)

=P(z2.03)

=0.0212

04

Part(b) Step 1: Given Information

It is given in the question, Suppose that the Child and Adult samples contain an equal proportion of red jelly beans. Based on your result in part (a), would this give you a reason to doubt the company鈥檚 claim? Explain

05

Part(b) Step 2: Explanation

Yes, the company's assertion has been questioned. The probability that the proportion of red jelly beans in the Child sample is less than or equal to that in the Adult sample is 0.0212, based on section (a). If the company's claim is true, there is only a 2% chance of getting the same number of red jellybeans in the child sample as in the adult sample. This is highly unlikely.

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