/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 22 Preventing strokes Aspirin preve... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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Preventing strokes Aspirin prevents blood from clotting and so helps prevent strokes. The Second European Stroke Prevention Study asked whether adding another anticlotting drug, named dipyridamole, would be more effective for patients who had already had a stroke. Here are the data on strokes and deaths during the two years of the study:\(^{16}\) $$\begin{array}{ll} &{\text { Number of }} & {\text { Number of }} \\ & {\text { patients }} & {\text { strokes }} \\ \hline \text {Aspirin alone } & 1649 & {206} \\ \text {Aspirin + dipyridamole }& {1650} & {157}\end{array}$$ The study was a randomized comparative experiment. (a) Is there a significant difference in the proportion of strokes between these two treatments? Carry out an appropriate test to help answer this question. (b) Describe a Type I and a Type II error in this setting. Which is more serious? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Conduct a two-proportion Z-test to determine significance; Type II Error may be more serious.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Scenario

The experiment compares two treatments: aspirin alone and aspirin combined with dipyridamole to determine their effectiveness in preventing strokes after a patient has already had one. We analyze if adding dipyridamole significantly reduces the proportion of strokes among the patients.
02

Setup Hypothesis Test

We test the hypothesis that there is no significant difference between the stroke proportions of the two groups against the alternative that there is a difference. Let \( p_1 \) be the proportion of strokes in the aspirin group, and \( p_2 \) the proportion in the aspirin + dipyridamole group. The null hypothesis \( H_0 \) is \( p_1 = p_2 \), and the alternative \( H_a \) is \( p_1 eq p_2 \).
03

Calculate Proportions

Calculate the proportion of strokes in each group. For aspirin alone, \( p_1 = \frac{206}{1649} \approx 0.125 \). For aspirin + dipyridamole, \( p_2 = \frac{157}{1650} \approx 0.095 \).
04

Perform Two-Proportion Z-Test

Calculate the pooled proportion \( \hat{p} = \frac{206 + 157}{1649 + 1650} \approx 0.11 \). Then, compute the standard error \( SE = \sqrt{ \hat{p}(1-\hat{p}) \left( \frac{1}{1649} + \frac{1}{1650} \right) } \). The test statistic \( z = \frac{p_1 - p_2}{SE} \).
05

Determine Critical Value and P-Value

The critical value for a two-tailed test at 0.05 significance level is around ±1.96. Compare the calculated \( z \)-value to this critical value or find the P-value to see if it falls below 0.05.
06

Decision Making

If the test statistic \( z \) is greater in magnitude than the critical value, or if the P-value < 0.05, reject \( H_0 \). Otherwise, fail to reject \( H_0 \). This would indicate that there's a statistically significant difference in stroke proportions between the treatments.
07

Type I and Type II Errors

A Type I Error means rejecting \( H_0 \) when it is true, which implies concluding a difference in stroke proportions when none exists. A Type II Error means failing to reject \( H_0 \) when \( H_a \) is true, incorrectly concluding no difference in stroke proportions. In this setting, a Type II Error might be more serious as it overlooks a potentially improved treatment.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Two-Proportion Z-Test
The Two-Proportion Z-Test is a statistical method used to determine if there is a significant difference between two population proportions. In the context of the stroke prevention study, we compare the effectiveness of two treatments: aspirin alone versus aspirin combined with dipyridamole. This test helps us understand if the addition of dipyridamole leads to a significant reduction in stroke occurrences.

To conduct this test, we calculate the proportion of stroke cases in each group. For the aspirin-only group, the proportion is calculated as \( p_1 = \frac{206}{1649} \approx 0.125 \), and for the aspirin + dipyridamole group, \( p_2 = \frac{157}{1650} \approx 0.095 \).

We then find the pooled proportion, \( \hat{p} = \frac{206 + 157}{1649 + 1650} \approx 0.11 \), and use it to compute the standard error (SE). The standard error is then applied to calculate the test statistic, which indicates whether the observed difference in proportions is statistically significant.

For a two-tailed test at a significance level of 0.05, the critical z-value is ±1.96. By comparing our calculated z-value against this critical value, we determine whether the difference in stroke proportions between the two treatments is statistically meaningful, supporting or refuting the idea that adding dipyridamole is beneficial.
Type I and Type II Errors
Hypothesis testing is incomplete without understanding Type I and Type II errors, both of which are crucial when making decisions based on statistical data.

A **Type I Error** occurs when we reject the null hypothesis \( H_0 \) when it is actually true. In our study, this would mean concluding that there is a significant difference in stroke proportions between the two treatments when, in fact, there is none. This kind of error is also known as a "false positive."

On the other hand, a **Type II Error** happens when we fail to reject \( H_0 \) when the alternative hypothesis \( H_a \) is true. This mistake would lead us to overlook an actual difference in stroke proportions, suggesting no benefit from adding dipyridamole when it might actually help reduce strokes.

In the context of the stroke prevention study, a Type II Error might be considered more serious because it potentially ignores a beneficial treatment option. Recognizing a genuine improvement in therapy is vital, especially in medical studies, to provide the best possible care and outcomes for patients.
Comparative Experiment
A Comparative Experiment is an experimental design where two or more treatments or conditions are compared to evaluate their effects. In the stroke prevention study, the treatments being compared were aspirin alone and aspirin combined with dipyridamole.

Such experiments are valuable because they allow researchers to determine the relative effectiveness of different treatments. They are usually randomized, meaning participants are randomly assigned to the different treatment groups. This randomization helps ensure that differences observed are due to the treatments themselves and not to other external factors.

By comparing the ratios of strokes between both groups, the experiment assesses whether there is a meaningful advantage to adding dipyridamole. Randomization and control are key principles here. They reduce bias and confounding variables, thus strengthening the validity of the results.

Through careful experimentation and statistical analysis in comparative experiments, like this one with aspirin treatments, researchers seek to discern genuine treatment effects, offering valuable insights that can guide clinical practices and improve patient care.

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