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Who uses instant messaging? Do younger people use online instant messaging (IM) more often than older people? A random sample of IM users found that 73 of the 158 people in the sample aged 18 to 27 said they used IM more often than email. In the 28 to 39 age group, 26 of 143 people used IM more often than email.\(^{9}\) Construct and interpret a 90% confidence interval for the difference between the proportions of IM users in these age groups who use IM more often than email.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The 90% confidence interval is (0.1807, 0.3793).

Step by step solution

01

Define Parameters

Let \( p_1 \) be the proportion of people aged 18-27 who use instant messaging more often than email, and \( p_2 \) be the proportion of people aged 28-39 who use instant messaging more often than email.
02

Calculate Sample Proportions

Calculate the sample proportion for each age group. The sample proportion for the 18-27 age group is \( \hat{p}_1 = \frac{73}{158} \approx 0.462 \). The sample proportion for the 28-39 age group is \( \hat{p}_2 = \frac{26}{143} \approx 0.182 \).
03

Determine Standard Error

The standard error (SE) for the difference between two proportions is given by:\[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}_1 (1-\hat{p}_1)}{n_1} + \frac{\hat{p}_2 (1-\hat{p}_2)}{n_2} } \]Where \( n_1 = 158 \) and \( n_2 = 143 \). Substitute the values to find the SE:\[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{0.462(1-0.462)}{158} + \frac{0.182(1-0.182)}{143} } \approx 0.0604 \]
04

Find the Critical Value

For a 90% confidence interval, the critical value (\( z \)) is approximately 1.645 (using a standard normal distribution table or calculator).
05

Calculate Margin of Error

The margin of error (ME) is given by:\[ ME = z \times SE \]Substitute the values:\[ ME = 1.645 \times 0.0604 \approx 0.0993 \]
06

Construct the Confidence Interval

The confidence interval for the difference in proportions \((p_1 - p_2)\) is given by:\[ (\hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2) \pm ME \]Substitute the values:\[ (0.462 - 0.182) \pm 0.0993 = 0.280 \pm 0.0993 \]This gives the interval: (0.1807, 0.3793).
07

Interpret the Confidence Interval

We are 90% confident that the true difference in the proportions of younger (18-27) and older (28-39) IM users who use IM more than email is between 18.07% and 37.93%.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sampling Distribution
Understanding the concept of the sampling distribution is essential for making inferences about a population using sample data. The sampling distribution refers to the distribution of a statistic (like a sample proportion) calculated from random samples of a certain size drawn from a population. Here, we're dealing with the difference in proportions between two groups.

In this exercise, we take a look at two different age groups of instant messaging users: one group aged 18-27 and the other 28-39. For each group, we've drawn a sample and calculated its proportion of individuals who prefer IM over email. The sampling distribution of the difference in these proportions helps us estimate the true difference in their preferences across the entire population. The shape of this distribution is approximately normal, especially when the sample size is large enough as it is in this study.
Sample Proportion
Let's dive into what the sample proportion means. It's simply the ratio of individuals in a sample with a particular characteristic to the total number of individuals in that sample.

For the 18-27 age group, 73 out of 158 people prefer IM over email, giving us a sample proportion of:
  • \[ \hat{p}_1 = \frac{73}{158} \approx 0.462 \]
For the 28-39 age group, we have 26 out of 143 people, resulting in a sample proportion of:
  • \[ \hat{p}_2 = \frac{26}{143} \approx 0.182 \]
These sample proportions act as our best estimate of the true proportions in the entire population for each group. They are foundational for further calculations like standard error and margin of error.
Standard Error
The standard error measures the variability or spread of the sample statistic鈥攈ere, the difference in proportions鈥攚hen you repeatedly take samples of the same size from the population.

To calculate it for the difference between two sample proportions, use the formula:
  • \[SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}_1 (1-\hat{p}_1)}{n_1} + \frac{\hat{p}_2 (1-\hat{p}_2)}{n_2} }\]
With our data:
  • \( n_1 = 158 \text{ and } n_2 = 143 \)
  • \( SE = \sqrt{\frac{0.462(1-0.462)}{158} + \frac{0.182(1-0.182)}{143} } \approx 0.0604 \)
This value indicates how much we expect the sample difference \( \hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2 \) to vary from the true population difference. Smaller standard errors suggest more precise estimates.
Margin of Error
The margin of error provides a range within which we expect the true population parameter (the difference in proportions) to fall, with a certain degree of confidence.

To find this range, multiply the standard error by a critical value from the normal distribution corresponding to the desired confidence level. For a 90% confidence interval, the critical value \( z \) is 1.645.
  • \[ME = z \times SE = 1.645 \times 0.0604 \approx 0.0993\]
So, the margin of error of approximately 0.0993 indicates the span of uncertainty around our sample proportion difference estimate. It expands our confidence interval, making it \((0.1807, 0.3793)\). Hence, we are 90% confident that the true difference in IM usage preference between the younger and older groups is between 18.07% and 37.93%.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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