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Did the random assignment work? A large clinical trial of the effect of diet on breast cancer assigned women at random to either a normal diet or a low-fat diet. To check that the random assignment did produce comparable groups, we can compare the two groups at the start of the study. Ask if there is a family history of breast cancer: 3396 of the \(19,541\) women in the low-fat group and 4929 of the \(29,294\) women in the control group said "Yes."\(^{15}\) If the random assignment worked well, there should not be a significant difference in the proportions with a family history of breast cancer. (a) How significant is the observed difference? Carry out an appropriate test to help answer this question. (b) Describe a Type I and a Type II error in this setting. Which is more serious? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The observed difference is not statistically significant (p = 0.102); no significant difference in proportions. Type I error is more serious here.

Step by step solution

01

Formulate Hypotheses

To determine if there is a significant difference in the proportions of those with a family history of breast cancer between the two groups, we will conduct a hypothesis test. The null hypothesis, \( H_0 \), is that there is no difference in the proportions (\( p_1 = p_2 \)), while the alternative hypothesis, \( H_a \), is that there is a difference (\( p_1 eq p_2 \)).
02

Calculate Proportions

Calculate the sample proportions for each group. For the low-fat group, the proportion is \( \hat{p}_1 = \frac{3396}{19541} \approx 0.1738 \). For the control group, the proportion is \( \hat{p}_2 = \frac{4929}{29294} \approx 0.1684 \).
03

Compute the Pooled Proportion

The pooled proportion is used in the standard error calculation. It is calculated as \( \hat{p} = \frac{3396 + 4929}{19541 + 29294} = \frac{8325}{48835} \approx 0.1705 \).
04

Calculate the Standard Error

The standard error for the difference between two proportions is computed as:\[SE = \sqrt{ \hat{p} \times (1 - \hat{p}) \times \left( \frac{1}{n_1} + \frac{1}{n_2} \right) }\]where \( n_1 = 19541 \) and \( n_2 = 29294 \). This gives:\[SE = \sqrt{0.1705 \times (1 - 0.1705) \times \left( \frac{1}{19541} + \frac{1}{29294} \right) } \approx 0.0033\]
05

Calculate the Test Statistic (Z-score)

The Z-score is calculated using the formula:\[Z = \frac{\hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2}{SE}\]Substituting the values gives:\[Z = \frac{0.1738 - 0.1684}{0.0033} \approx 1.636\]
06

Determine the P-Value

Using the Z-score, determine the p-value. A Z-score of 1.636 corresponds to a two-tailed p-value of approximately 0.102 (using a standard normal distribution table).
07

Conclusion of Statistical Test

Since the p-value (0.102) is greater than the significance level of 0.05, we fail to reject the null hypothesis. There is not enough evidence to suggest a significant difference in the proportions of women with a family history of breast cancer between the two diet groups.
08

Describe Type I and Type II Errors

A Type I error would occur if we falsely conclude that there is a difference in history proportions when there is not. A Type II error would occur if we fail to detect a real difference. In clinical trials, a Type I error (false positive) can be more serious because it leads us to believe an effect exists when it does not, potentially causing unnecessary changes in guidelines or interventions.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Random Assignment
Random assignment is a fundamental principle in experimental design. It involves assigning participants to different groups using a random process, such as flipping a coin or using random number generators. The goal of random assignment is to ensure that each group is comparable at the start of the study. This helps to eliminate bias and balance confounding variables between the groups.

In the context of the clinical trial on the effect of diet on breast cancer, participants were randomly assigned to either a low-fat diet group or a control (normal diet) group. By doing this, researchers aim to have groups that are similar in all respects except for the treatment being tested.

This process minimizes the chance that differences observed later in the trial are due to pre-existing differences between groups, rather than the effect of the diet. If random assignment is done correctly, any systematic bias is reduced, making the results more trustworthy.
Type I and Type II Errors
Errors are possible when making decisions based on hypothesis tests. Two main types are Type I and Type II errors.

Types of Errors:
  • A **Type I error** occurs when the null hypothesis is rejected, even though it is true. This is a false positive. In our clinical trial, a Type I error would mean concluding that the diet affects the family history proportions when it does not.
  • A **Type II error** occurs when the null hypothesis is not rejected when it actually is false. This is a false negative. Here, it would mean failing to see a true effect of the diet on family history proportions.
In many cases, especially in clinical trials, a Type I error is considered more serious. False positives may lead to unnecessary interventions or treatments.
Thus, researchers tend to use a conservative significance level (like 0.05) to minimize the risk of making a Type I error.
Standard Error
Standard error (SE) quantifies the variability of a sample statistic. In hypothesis testing for proportions, the standard error of the difference between two sample proportions helps us understand the precision of our estimates.

Formula for Standard Error:
The standard error of the difference between two proportions, \ SE, is given by:

\[ SE = \sqrt{ \hat{p} \times (1 - \hat{p}) \times \left( \frac{1}{n_1} + \frac{1}{n_2} \right) } \]
Where \(\hat{p}\) is the pooled proportion and \(n_1\) and \(n_2\) are the sample sizes for the two groups.

This calculation accounts for the variability due to sampling and is crucial for testing hypotheses effectively. If the standard error is small, it suggests our sample proportion estimates are close to the true population values, leading to more precise inferences.
Proportions in Clinical Trials
Proportions are essential when comparing different groups within clinical trials. They represent the ratio of individuals exhibiting a particular trait within a group.

For example, the trial compared the proportion of women with a family history of breast cancer between two diet groups. Calculating proportions involves dividing the number of individuals with the trait by the total number in the group.

Importance of Proportions:
  • Proportions help identify any initial differences between groups that might affect the trial outcome.
  • They serve as crucial metrics in determining if a treatment or intervention has had a significant effect.
In testing these differences statistically, it is vital to determine if observed changes in proportions are due to the treatment or just random chance. Accurate calculation and comparison of proportions guide the conclusions about the effectiveness of the intervention being investigated.

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