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Groceries A grocery store's receipts show that Sunday customer purchases have a skewed distribution with a mean of \(\$ 32\) and a standard deviation of \(\$ 20\). a. Explain why you cannot determine the probability that the next Sunday customer will spend at least \(\$ 40\). b. Can you estimate the probability that the next 10 Sunday customers will spend an average of at least \(\$ 40 ?\) Explain. c. Is it likely that the next 50 Sunday customers will spend an average of at least \(\$ 40 ?\) Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. We cannot determine the probability that the next Sunday customer will spend at least \(\$ 40\) because we don't know the type of the skewed distribution. \n b. We cannot estimate the probability that the next 10 Sunday customers will spend an average of at least \(\$ 40 \) because the sample size is too small for the Central Limit Theorem to apply. \n c. Although we can't determine the exact probability that the next 50 Sunday customers will spend an average of at least \(\$ 40 \), it's likely to be close to the true population mean due to the Central Limit Theorem.

Step by step solution

01

Explain why we cannot determine probability for one customer

We cannot determine the probability that the next Sunday customer will spend atleast \(\$40\) because the exercise states that customer purchases follow a skewed distribution. Without knowing the exact form of this distribution or having more data (like the median or mode), it's impossible to ascertain the probability.
02

Estimate probability for 10 customers using Central Limit Theorem

According to the CLT, for samples of size greater than or equal to 30, the sample means approximate a normal distribution irrespective of the shape of the population distribution. However, for a sample size of 10, we cannot use the CLT because it's less than 30. Therefore, we also cannot estimate the probability that the next 10 Sunday customers will spend an average of at least \(\$ 40 \).
03

Estimate probability for 50 customers using Central Limit Theorem

Given that the sample size is now 50 (which is greater than 30), we can apply the CLT. But the problem does not give us enough information to calculate the exact probability. We can, however, say that it's more likely. Because by the CLT, the distribution of the sample mean is likely to be close to the true population mean and with a larger sample size, extreme results are less likely.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Skewed Distribution
In statistics, a skewed distribution occurs when the data is not symmetrical. Skewness can be visualized when one tail is longer or fatter than the other.
This asymmetry means that the data leans more towards one direction. If it's skewed to the right, or positively skewed, it has a longer tail on the right side. Conversely, left-skewed distributions have a longer left tail.
Understanding that a distribution is skewed is crucial because it impacts the measures of central tendency like the mean, median, and mode. In a skewed distribution, the mean is not a reliable measure of the central location, as it can be unduly affected by extreme values. This is why in the original problem, we can't determine exact probabilities without more data.
  • Right-skewed: Mean > Median
  • Left-skewed: Mean < Median
In the context of the grocery store receipts, this means we have limited predictability of individual spending behavior.
Sample Size
The term "sample size" refers to the number of observations in a sample. It's a critical component in statistical inference. The larger the sample size, the more accurately the sample reflects the population from which it's drawn.
When dealing with skewed distributions, sample size becomes even more important. The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) tells us that with a large enough sample size, the sample mean will approximate a normal distribution, even if the original population distribution is skewed.
However, as stated in the exercise's solution, if the sample size is too small, like with 10 customers, the CLT does not apply effectively. Generally, a sample size of 30 or more is considered robust enough to assume a normal distribution by the CLT.
  • Small Sample: Less reliable, higher variability
  • Large Sample: More reliable, lower variability
In summary, sample size affects the variability and reliability of the sample mean, especially in skewed distributions.
Population Mean
The population mean is the arithmetic average of all the values in a population. It provides a central value around which the data is distributed.
In real-world scenarios, determining the actual population mean is often challenging due to limitations in data collection. In the problem, the population mean is given as $32.
Why is knowing the population mean important?
  • It serves as a benchmark for comparing sample means.
  • Assisting in the estimation of probabilities and evaluations of rare events.
For the grocery store, this mean indicates typical spending per Sunday customer. However, in a skewed distribution, this number can be misleading without additional measures like median or mode.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a measure of the amount of variation or dispersion in a set of values. A low standard deviation means that values tend to be close to the mean.
Conversely, a high standard deviation indicates that the values are spread out over a wider range.
In the exercise, the standard deviation is $20, showing that there's some considerable variability in Sunday customer spending. Variability matters because it affects how we interpret the mean and estimate probabilities based on it.
  • Low Standard Deviation: Data points are close to the mean.
  • High Standard Deviation: Data points are dispersed widely.
In practice, a high standard deviation means less predictability of individual outcomes, steering us toward the use of probabilistic methods like the CLT for large samples to make better predictions.

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