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GPAs A college's data about the incoming freshmen indicate that the mean of their high school GPAs was \(3.4,\) with a standard deviation of 0.35 ; the distribution was roughly mound-shaped and only slightly skewed. The students are randomly assigned to freshman writing seminars in groups of 25\. What might the mean GPA of one of these seminar groups be? Describe the appropriate sampling distribution model-shape, center, and spread-with attention to assumptions and conditions. Make a sketch using the \(68-95\) \(99.7 \mathrm{P}\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
The mean GPA is likely to be around 3.4, the standard deviation (or spread) will be approximately 0.07, and the shape of the sampling distribution will be approximately normal thanks to the central limit theorem.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the population parameters

The mean (\(\mu\)) of the high-school GPAs is 3.4 and the standard deviation (\(\sigma\)) is 0.35. By definition, these are our parameters for the population.
02

Find the size of the sample

According to the question, students are assigned to seminars in groups of 25. This means that our sample size (\(n\)) is 25.
03

Identify the Characteristics of the Sampling Distribution

According to the Central Limit Theorem, if the original population is normal or if the sample size is large, the sampling distribution will be roughly normal. Since the problem states that the distribution was roughly mound-shaped and slightly skewed, it is safe to assume the distribution of the sample mean will be roughly normal.
04

Find the mean of the sample

By the central limit theorem, the mean of the distribution of sample means (\(\mu_M\)) will be equal to the mean of the population (\(\mu\)). Therefore, \(\mu_M = \mu = 3.4\). So we can expect the mean GPA of the seminar groups to also be around 3.4.
05

Find the standard deviation of the sample (Standard Error)

The standard deviation of the distribution of sample means, or the Standard Error (\(\sigma_M\)), can be calculated by dividing the standard deviation of the population (\(\sigma\)) by the square root of the sample size (\(n\)). Thus, \(\sigma_M = \sigma/ \sqrt{n} = 0.35/ \sqrt{25} = 0.35/5 = 0.07.\)
06

Describe the sampling distribution

Summarizing, the shape of the sampling distribution is roughly normal (due to the central limit theorem), the center (mean) of the sampling distribution is 3.4 (which means we expect the mean GPA of a seminar group to be around 3.4), and the spread (standard deviation) of the sampling distribution is 0.07.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Central Limit Theorem
The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) is a fundamental principle in statistics that explains the behavior of the mean of a sample when taken from any population. It states that, under certain conditions, the sampling distribution of the sample mean will be approximately normally distributed, regardless of the shape of the original population distribution. This occurs as long as the sample size is sufficiently large (usually n>30 is considered large enough), but even smaller sample sizes can work if the original population is roughly normally distributed.

The theorem enables us to make inferences about population parameters by analyzing sample data. In the context of our exercise, since the groups are relatively small (25 students), one might question the applicability of the CLT. However, because the original GPA distribution is mound-shaped and only slightly skewed, it suggests that the distribution of the sample mean will indeed approximate a normal distribution, as per CLT.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a measure of how spread out the numbers in a data set are around the mean. It is a very useful statistic because it gives a sense of the variability within a set of values. A low standard deviation means that most numbers are close to the mean (average), while a high standard deviation indicates that the numbers are more spread out.

In our exercise, the given population standard deviation \( \sigma = 0.35 \) shows that individual GPA scores are relatively close to the mean GPA of 3.4. When we use standard deviation for a sampling distribution (also known as standard error), it shows the variability of the sample means from possible samples of size n, assuming we took multiple samples from the population. In simpler terms, a smaller standard error means the sample means are tightly clustered around the population mean, which implies more precision in our sample estimates.
Population Parameters
Population parameters refer to measures that describe certain characteristics of a population. In the context of our exercise, the population parameter refers to the freshman class's GPA metrics. The mean (\( \mu \) = 3.4) and standard deviation (\( \sigma \) = 0.35) are critical values for calculating the sample's expected mean and variability.

Understanding the population parameters is crucial because they serve as benchmarks for comparing the properties of a sample drawn from this population. When gathering statistical evidence, the objective often revolves around approximating these population parameters. The accurate portrayal of these parameters allows for stronger and more factual inferences to be derived from the samples, thus enhancing the reliability of conclusions drawn from the study.
Normal Distribution
A normal distribution is a continuous probability distribution characterized by a symmetrical, bell-shaped curve, also known as a Gaussian curve. Most of the observations cluster around the central peak and the probabilities for values further away from the mean taper off equally in both directions. Important properties of a normal distribution include the fact that the mean, median, and mode of the distribution are all equal and located at the center of the distribution.

In the context of the GPA example, if the GPA scores of all students followed a normal distribution, we would find that most students' GPAs would be around the mean, with fewer and fewer students having extremely high or low GPAs. The sampling distribution of the mean GPA of seminar groups is also normally distributed, as the central limit theorem assures us, which allows the use of normal distribution properties to estimate probabilities and make inferences about the sample data.

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