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Privacy or security? In January 2014 AP-GfK polled 1060 U.S. adults to find if people were more concerned with privacy or security. Privacy concerns outweighed concerns about being safe from terrorists for 646 out of the 1060 polled. Of the 1060 adults, about 180 are 65 and older and their concerns may be different from the rest of the population. a. Do you expect the \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the true proportion of those 65 and over who are more concerned with privacy to be wider or narrower than the \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the true proportion of all U.S. adults? Explain. b. If \(13 \%\) of the 1060 polled were \(18-24\) years old, would you expect the margin of error for this group to be larger or smaller than for the 65 and older group? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. The 95% confidence interval for the group aged 65 and over who are more concerned with privacy is expected to be wider than that for all U.S. adults due to the smaller sample size. b. The margin of error for the 18-24 year old group is expected to be larger than for the 65 and older group, assuming they represent a smaller portion of the total sample.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Relationship Between Sample Size and Confidence Interval

Sample size plays an important role in determining the level of confidence or uncertainty in statistical results. A larger sample size can lead to a narrower confidence interval because it provides more information about the population and reduces the variability of estimates. On the other hand, a smaller sample size would typically result in a wider confidence interval due to higher variability.
02

Answering Part A

It is mentioned that only 180 out of the 1060 adults polled are aged 65 and older. Because this is a smaller sample size compared to the total population of adults, it is expected that the 95 % confidence interval for this age group who are more concerned with privacy would be wider than the 95 % confidence interval for the entire adult population.
03

Understanding the Concept of Margin of Error

The margin of error of a statistic is an estimate of the amount by which the result may differ due to sampling error. Like confidence intervals, the size of the sample impacts the margin of error. A larger sample size usually leads to a smaller margin of error since there's more data from the population, thus providing a clearer, lower-variance estimate of the population parameter.
04

Answering Part B

In this case, we do not know the exact number of individuals aged 18-24 polled, but we know they comprise 13 % of the total participants. Without exact figures, it's hard to say definitively, but typically, a smaller sample, as we expect the 18-24 group to be compared to the 65 and older group, will likely have a larger margin of error. This is because there's greater variability in a smaller sample, leading to a less precise estimate of the population proportion.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Size
In the context of confidence intervals and statistical analyses, sample size is a key factor that strongly influences the accuracy and reliability of the results obtained from a study. When determining the sample size, researchers aim to adequately represent the larger population from which the sample is drawn.

A larger sample size generally leads to a narrower confidence interval, which suggests a more precise estimate of the population parameter. As the sample size increases, the effect of random error diminishes, and the results tend to be more stable and consistent.

Conversely, a smaller sample size can result in a wider confidence interval. This is because with fewer data points, the sample might not represent the population accurately, leading to greater variability and a less confident estimation of the population parameter. This is precisely the reason why, in the given problem, the confidence interval for the subset of adults aged 65 and over, which has a smaller sample size of 180, is expected to be wider than that of the entire group of 1060 adults.
Margin of Error
The margin of error is a statistic that reflects the extent to which the sample results can differ from the true population value. It quantifies the uncertainty in an estimate and is typically expressed alongside the results of a poll or survey.

A fundamental aspect of the margin of error is its inverse relationship with the sample size. With a larger sample, the estimate of the population parameter tends to be more precise, resulting in a smaller margin of error. This reflects higher confidence that the true population parameter is close to the estimated value.

In smaller samples, however, the margin of error increases, showing less precision in the estimate. The variability inherent in a small sample makes it more probable that the sample estimate will deviate from the true population value. This concept explains why the margin of error for the group aged 18-24 years old in the exercise might be larger compared to the older age group if their proportionate sample size is indeed smaller.
Statistical Significance
The term statistical significance refers to the likelihood that a relationship between two or more variables is caused by something other than random chance. This concept plays a critical role in hypothesis testing, where researchers are interested in making inferences about the population based on sample data.

Statistical significance is typically determined by p-values and alpha levels (commonly set at 0.05). If the p-value of a test statistic is lower than the chosen alpha level, the results are deemed statistically significant, indicating that the observed effects are improbable to have occurred by chance alone.

Statistical significance does not automatically imply practical significance or that the results are large, important, or applicable in a real-world context. It simply suggests that the findings are not likely the result of random variation within the sample data, thus providing some degree of reliability to the conclusions drawn from the study.
Population Proportion
The population proportion is a measure that represents the ratio of members in a population who have a particular attribute to the total number of members in that population. It is denoted by the symbol 'p' and is an essential concept in descriptive statistics, demonstrating the prevalence or likelihood of an attribute within a population.

For example, in the exercise provided, the population proportion can refer to the proportion of U.S. adults who are more concerned with privacy than with being safe from terrorists. To estimate this from a sample, one can use the number of individuals in the sample with the concerned attribute (i.e., those prioritizing privacy) divided by the total sample size.

Understanding the true population proportion is important for making generalized statements about the population based on the sample, and it is the central parameter we look to estimate when constructing confidence intervals. Accurate estimation of the population proportion hinges on a well-designed sample that is representative of the entire population.

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