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Back to campus ACT, Inc. reported that \(74 \%\) of 1644 randomly selected college freshmen returned to college the next year. The study was stratified by type of college-public or private. The retention rates were \(71.9 \%\) among 505 students enrolled in public colleges and \(74.9 \%\) among 1139 students enrolled in private colleges. a. Will the \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the true national retention rate in private colleges be wider or narrower than the \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the retention rate in public colleges? Explain. b. Do you expect the margin of error for the overall retention rate to be larger or smaller? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The 95% confidence interval for the true national retention rate in private colleges will be narrower than that for the retention rate in public colleges due to a larger sample size. The margin of error for the overall retention rate would be smaller due to the increased overall sample size.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Confidence Interval

Confidence interval in statistics is a type of interval estimate that is used to estimate the range within which the true population parameter is expected to fall, with a certain degree of confidence. In this case, we're looking at a 95% confidence interval, meaning we can say with 95% confidence that the true population parameter (retention rate) falls within this interval.
02

Confidence Interval Width

The width of a confidence interval is largely dependent on two things: the standard deviation and the sample size. When sample size increases, the standard error decreases, and subsequently, the width of the confidence interval decreases. Conversely, with smaller sample sizes, the interval tends to be wider. In this exercise, we have larger sample size for private colleges (1139 students) compared to public colleges (505 students). Hence we can say that, the 95% confidence interval for the true national retention rate in private colleges will be narrower compared to that for public colleges.
03

Margin of Error

The margin of error is essentially half the width of the confidence interval and is influenced by the same factors, standard deviation and sample size. The larger the sample size, the smaller the margin of error. Considering the overall retention rate, we are taking into account a larger sample size (sum of public and private college students), hence we would expect the margin of error for the overall retention rate to be smaller.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Retainment Rate
The retainment rate refers to the percentage of students who continue their studies at the same institution from one year to the next. It is a vital indicator of a college or university's ability to keep students engaged and satisfied with their academic experience.
When interpreting these rates, it's important to consider factors such as student support services, campus facilities, quality of education, and the overall environment, as they all influence a student's decision to return.
In this exercise, ACT, Inc. reported that 74% of randomly selected college freshmen returned for their second year, with variations observed between public and private colleges. Such figures help institutions identify strengths and weaknesses in their programs.
Retention rates are a clear reflection of student satisfaction and institutional effectiveness. The goal is to achieve high retention rates, indicating that students are choosing to stay and complete their programs.
Margin of Error
The margin of error is a critical concept in statistics, representing the extent to which the results from a sample might differ from the true population values. It provides a range within which we expect the true parameter value to lie.
Mathematically, the margin of error is determined by the formula: \[ \text{Margin of Error} = Z \times \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \] where:
  • \( Z \) is the Z-score, representing the confidence level (e.g., 1.96 for 95% confidence).
  • \( \sigma \) is the standard deviation of the population.
  • \( n \) is the sample size.
The margin of error decreases with an increase in sample size or a decrease in population variability.
For the overall retention rate in this exercise, combining both public and private colleges creates a larger sample size, thus reducing the margin of error compared to when these rates are calculated separately.
Sample Size
Sample size, simply put, is the number of observations or data points that are included in a statistical sample. In any study or survey, the sample size impacts the accuracy and reliability of the results.
A larger sample size generally leads to more precise estimates of population parameters, as it decreases the standard error. This, in turn, leads to a narrower confidence interval, providing more certainty about the parameter estimate.
Regarding the exercise at hand, there are 1139 students from private colleges and 505 from public colleges. The larger sample size for private colleges allows for a more precise estimation of the retention rate, leading to a narrower confidence interval when compared to the public colleges.
Therefore, when designing a study, it's crucial to consider a sample size that is adequate to achieve reliable results without unnecessary resource expenditure.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Junk mail Direct mail advertisers send solicitations (a.k.a. "junk mail") to thousands of potential customers in the hope that some will buy the company's product. The acceptance rate is usually quite low. Suppose a company wants to test the response to a new flyer, and sends it to 1000 people randomly selected from their mailing list of over 200,000 people. They get orders from 123 of the recipients. a. Create a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the percentage of people the company contacts who may buy something. b. Explain what this interval means. c. Explain what "90\% confidence" means. d. The company must decide whether to now do a mass mailing. The mailing won't be cost-effective unless it produces at least a \(5 \%\) return. What does your confidence interval suggest? Explain.

30\. Parole A study of 902 decisions (to grant parole or not) made by the Nebraska Board of Parole produced the following computer output. Assuming these cases are representative of all cases that may come before the Board, what can you conclude? z-Interval for proportion With \(95.00 \%\) confidence, $$ 0.56100658<\mathrm{P}(\text { parole })<0.62524619 $$

Confidence intervals Several factors are involved in the creation of a confidence interval. Among them are the sample size, the level of confidence, and the margin of error. Which statements are true? a. For a given sample size, higher confidence means a smaller margin of error. b. For a specified confidence level, larger samples provide smaller margins of error. c. For a fixed margin of error, larger samples provide greater confidence. d. For a given confidence level, halving the margin of error requires a sample twice as large.

Death penalty, again In the survey on the death penalty you read about in the Step-by-Step Example, the Gallup Poll actually split the sample at random, asking 510 respondents the question quoted earlier, "Generally speaking, do you believe the death penalty is applied fairly or unfairly in this country today?" The other 510 were asked, "Generally speaking, do you believe the death penalty is applied unfairly or fairly in this country today?" Seems like the same question, but sometimes the order of the choices matters. Suppose that for the second way of phrasing it, \(64 \%\) said they thought the death penalty was fairly applied. (Recall that \(53 \%\) of the original 510 thought the same thing.) a. What kind of bias may be present here? b. If we combine them, considering the overall group to be one larger random sample of 1020 respondents, what is a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of the general public that thinks the death penalty is being fairly applied? c. How does the margin of error based on this pooled sample compare with the margins of error from the separate groups? Why?

More conditions Consider each situation described. Identify the population and the sample, explain what \(p\) and \(\hat{p}\) represent, and tell whether the methods of this chapter can be used to create a confidence interval. a.A consumer group hoping to assess customer experiences with auto dealers surveys 167 people who recently bought new cars; \(3 \%\) of them expressed dissatisfaction with the salesperson. b. What percent of college students have cell phones? 2883 students were asked as they entered a football stadium, and 2430 said they had phones with them. c. Two hundred forty potato plants in a field in Maine are randomly checked, and only 7 show signs of blight. How severe is the blight problem for the U.S. potato industry? d. Twelve of the 309 employees of a small company suffered an injury on the job last year. What can the company expect in future years?

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