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91Ó°ÊÓ

Retailers report that the use of cents-off coupons is increasing. The Scripps Howard News Service (July 9, 1991) reported the proportion of all households that use coupons as .77. Suppose that this estimate was based on a random sample of 800 households (i.e., \(n=800\) and \(p=.77\) ). Construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for \(\pi\), the true proportion of all households that use coupons.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The 95% confidence interval for the true proportion of all households that use coupons is (0.736, 0.804). This means, we are 95% confident that the true proportion of all households that use coupons is between 73.6% and 80.4%.

Step by step solution

01

Identifying Known Parameters

The sample size, denoted as \(n\), is given as 800 and the sample proportion (\(p\)) is given as 0.77. The desired level of confidence is 95%, which has a corresponding Z-value of 1.96 in the standard normal distribution table.
02

Compute Standard Error

The formula for standard error (\(SE\)) of a proportion is given by \(\sqrt{p(1-p)/n}\). Substituting \(p = 0.77\) and \(n = 800\) into the formula, we get: \(SE = \sqrt{0.77(1-0.77)/800} = 0.0172\)
03

Construct Confidence Interval

The confidence interval is calculated using the formula: \((p - Z*SE, p + Z*SE)\). Substituting \(p = 0.77, Z = 1.96, SE = 0.0172\), we get: \((0.77 - 1.96*0.0172, 0.77 + 1.96*0.0172) = (0.736, 0.804)\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Statistical Inference
Statistical inference is a cornerstone of data analysis, allowing us to draw conclusions about larger populations from samples. In the case of the coupon usage study, by collecting data from 800 households, researchers make an inference about the behavior of all households. To ensure validity, inference relies on methods that include suitability of the sample, accurate data collection, and appropriate statistical tools for analysis.

One of these tools is the construction of confidence intervals (CIs). In essence, a CI provides a range of values within which we can be confident, to a specified degree (95% in our example), that the population parameter lies. It translates uncertainty inherent in any sample into a quantifiable range that predicts the true value.
Proportion
In statistics, the term proportion represents the part of the whole, usually expressed as a fraction, a percentage, or a decimal. In our example, we're looking at the proportion of households that use coupons, which has been reported as 0.77, or 77%. We interpret this as 77 out of every 100 households in our sample use coupons. The proportion is a crucial piece in many statistical calculations as it serves as the building block for estimating the characteristics of the broader population from a sample.
Standard Error
Standard error (SE) is a measure of the variability or dispersion of a sampling distribution. It essentially quantifies how far the sample proportion could be expected to deviate from the true population proportion due to random sampling error. Calculation of the SE allows us to understand this variability and is essential for constructing confidence intervals.

In our retail study, once the sample proportion (0.77) is established, the SE is calculated using the formula:\[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}} \]
where \( p \) is the sample proportion and \( n \) is the sample size. A smaller SE suggests a more precise estimate of the population parameter.
Normal Distribution
The normal distribution, also known as the Gaussian distribution, is a bell-shaped curve commonly used in statistics to represent the distribution of a variable. In the context of confidence intervals, the normal distribution provides a way to quantify how sample estimates spread around the population parameter if we were to take many samples. The 'Z-value' used in constructing confidence intervals corresponds to the number of standard deviations away from the mean of the normal distribution.

In our coupon usage problem, we use the 1.96 Z-value from the standard normal distribution because we're constructing a 95% confidence interval. The Z-value corresponds to the point at which 95% of the area under the curve is to the left, indicating our level of confidence that the true proportion is within the calculated range.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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