/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 49 The article "National Geographic... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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The article "National Geographic, the Doomsday Machine," which appeared in the March 1976 issue of the Journal of Irreproducible Results (yes, there really is a journal by that name-it's a spoof of technical journals!) predicted dire consequences resulting from a nationwide buildup of National Geographic magazines. The author's predictions are based on the observation that the number of subscriptions for National Geographic is on the rise and that no one ever throws away a copy of National Geographic. A key to the analysis presented in the article is the weight of an issue of the magazine. Suppose that you were assigned the task of estimating the average weight of an issue of National Geographic. How many issues should you sample to estimate the average weight to within 0.1 oz with \(95 \%\) confidence? Assume that \(\sigma\) is known to be 1 oz.

Short Answer

Expert verified
You should sample 385 issues to estimate the average weight to within 0.1 oz with 95% confidence.

Step by step solution

01

Determine the Z-Score for a 95% Confidence Interval

The first step is to determine the z-score associated with 95% confidence interval. If we look it up in a standard normal distribution table or use a statistical software, we find that the z-value that cuts off the upper 2.5% and the lower 2.5% (leaving 95% in between) is approximately 1.96. Therefore, our z-score is 1.96.
02

Set Up the Equation for Determining Sample Size

We are given that we want our estimate of the mean to be within 0.1 oz and our z-score is 1.96. We also know that our standard deviation (sigma) is 1 oz. We can use the formula for a confidence interval to express this scenario: \(\mu = X \pm (Z * σ/\sqrt{n})\). In this scenario, we are trying to solve for n (the sample size). The plus-minus term here is the margin of error and we already know that it should be equal to 0.1. Thus, we get: \(0.1 = 1.96 * 1/ \sqrt{n}\)
03

Solve for n

Now, solve this equation for n. First, square all sides to get rid of the square root: \(0.01 = 3.8416/n\). Then, multiplying both sides by n and also dividing both sides by 0.01, we get: \(n = 3.8416/0.01 \). This gives us: \(n = 384.16\)
04

Round Up to the Nearest Whole Number

Since we can't have a partial number of magazines, and we want to be as close to accurate as possible, we will round up to the next nearest whole number. Therefore, n should be 385.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Confidence Interval
When we talk about confidence intervals, we're dealing with the precision we can expect from a statistical sample in estimating a population parameter. In particular, a confidence interval for a mean tells us the range within which we can expect the actual mean to lie, given our sample data.

A confidence interval consists of two parts: an estimate of the parameter (like the sample mean) and a margin of error. The confidence level (expressed as a percentage, such as 95%) denotes the probability that the interval will enclose the true population parameter. This does not mean that the parameter has a 95% likelihood of being within the interval; rather, it means that 95% of such intervals, from repeated sampling, will likely contain the parameter.

The width of the interval depends on two factors: the z-score associated with the confidence level and the variability in the data, often quantified by the standard deviation. A narrower interval implies more precision but requires a larger sample size, higher confidence level, or lower variability.
Z-Score
The z-score is a significant figure in statistics, representing the number of standard deviations a data point is from the mean of its distribution. It's an index that transforms data into a common scale where comparisons can become meaningful.

In the context of determining sample size for a confidence interval, we use the z-score to express our degree of confidence. For a 95% confidence level, as noted in the provided exercise, the commonly used Z-score is about 1.96. This value comes from the property of the standard normal distribution, indicating that roughly 95% of all values lie within 1.96 standard deviations from the mean on either side.

It's instrumental when setting the desired confidence level in empirical research, as it directly impacts the margin of error and, consequently, the sample size.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a measure of the amount of variation or dispersion in a set of values. A low standard deviation means that the values tend to be close to the mean (also called the expected value) of the set, while a higher standard deviation means that the values are spread out over a wider range.

In the exercise context, we are given the standard deviation (denoted as \(\sigma\)) of the weight of National Geographic issues, which is 1 oz. This piece of information is crucial because it allows us to assess the variability in the weights. When calculating the needed sample size for the estimation of the mean weight, the standard deviation is factored into the formula to determine the confidence interval and, by extension, influences the margin of error. The larger the standard deviation, the larger the sample size needed to achieve the same margin of error.
Margin of Error
The margin of error is a statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in a survey's results. It represents the radius of a confidence interval for a particular statistic. The smaller the margin of error, the closer we can expect the sample statistic to be to the population parameter.

The margin of error can be affected by several factors, including the size of the sample, the level of confidence desired, and the population's variability. In the exercise provided, the margin of error is specified to be 0.1 oz. Using the margin of error, along with the z-score and standard deviation, we can calculate the necessary sample size to estimate the mean with the desired precision. It's the piece that connects our confidence in the estimate to how much data we need to collect to back up that confidence.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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