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An Associated Press article on potential violent behavior reported the results of a survey of 750 workers who were employed full time (San Luis Obispo Tribune, September 7,1999 ). Of those surveyed, 125 indicated that they were so angered by a coworker during the past year that they felt like hitting the coworker (but didn't). Assuming that it is reasonable to regard this sample of 750 as a random sample from the population of full-time workers. use this information to construct and interpret a \(90 \%\) confidence interval estimate of \(\pi\), the true proportion of fulltime workers so angered in the last year that they wanted to hit a colleague.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The 90% confidence interval estimate of the true proportion of full-time workers who were so angered in the last year that they wanted to hit a colleague is (0.145, 0.189).

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Sample Proportion

From the question, it's known that 125 out of 750 surveyed workers admitted to being so angry that they wanted to hit a coworker. The sample proportion (\(p\)) then is \(125/750 = 0.1667\).
02

Determine the Confidence Level

The problem asks for a 90% confidence interval. This implies that 90% of the time, the true population proportion (\(\pi\)) falls within this interval. To find the critical value (\(z\)), refer to the standard normal distribution table or statistic calculator. For a 90% confidence level, the critical value is ±1.645.
03

Calculate the Margin of Error

To calculate the margin of error, use the formula ± \(z \times \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}}\). Substituting the given values, i.e., \(p = 0.1667, n = 750, and z = 1.645\), you get ± \(1.645 \times \sqrt{\frac{0.1667 \times (1-0.1667)}{750}}\). This gives a margin of error of 0.022 measured to three decimal places.
04

Construct the Confidence Interval

Now, construct the confidence interval for the population proportion (\(\pi\)) by adding and subtracting the margin of error from the sample proportion. This gives the interval \((0.1667 - 0.022) to (0.1667 + 0.022)\), or (0.145, 0.189).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Understanding Sample Proportion
Sample proportion, often symbolized as \( p \), is a key concept in statistics and represents the ratio between the number of 'successes' to the total number of observations or participants in a sample. For example, if you were to survey 750 employees and found that 125 had experienced intense workplace anger, the sample proportion of those who had this experience would be \( p = \frac{125}{750} = 0.1667 \).

This fraction of the sample brings us insights into the larger group, or population, by giving us a glimpse of the probable proportion of all employees who might express the same feelings. When calculating sample proportion, considering that the data has been collected from a random and representative sample is crucial, as this ensures that the findings can be logically extended to the broader population.
Confidence Level Deep Dive
The confidence level indicates the degree of certainty we have that our calculated confidence interval contains the true population parameter, such as a population proportion \( \pi \). It is expressed as a percentage, like 90%, 95%, or 99%. If we state we are 90% confident, it means that if we were to take many samples and compute a confidence interval for each, we expect that about 90% of those intervals would contain the true population parameter.

The higher the confidence level, the wider the confidence interval will be, because we require more 'wiggle room' to ensure that the interval captures \( \pi \). Hence, we trade precision for confidence. To determine the interval at a specified confidence level, statisticians use a critical value, typically denoted by \( z \), which aligns with the desired level of confidence and is found using the standard normal (Z) distribution.
Margin of Error Explained
Margin of error is a statistic that quantifies the degree of sampling error in the results of a survey, capturing how much we can expect our survey's sample proportion to vary from the true population proportion. It incorporates both the confidence level and the variability in the sample. Mathematically, it is calculated as \( z \times \(\sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}}\) \), where \( p \) is the sample proportion, \( n \) the sample size, and \( z \) the z-score corresponding to our confidence level.

In our example, with a sample proportion of 0.1667, a 90% confidence level and an associated z-score of approximately 1.645, the margin of error works out to about 0.022. Interpretively, this tells us that the true population proportion is likely to be within 2.2 percentage points of our sample estimate, 90% of the time. This margin of error is crucial in constructing the confidence interval, which ultimately provides us with a range we are confident (to a certain degree) contains the true proportion.

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