/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 52 The digits in \(9 / 11\) add up ... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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The digits in \(9 / 11\) add up to \(11(9+1+1)\), American Airlines flight 11 was the first to hit the World Trade Towers (which took the form of the number 11 ), there were 92 people on board \((9+2=11),\) September 11 is the 254 th day of the year \((2+5+4=11),\) and there are 11 letters in Afghanistan, New York City, the Pentagon, and George W. Bush (see article by L. Belkin, New York Times, August 11,2002 ). How could you explain to someone who has not studied probability that, because of the way we look for patterns out of the huge number of things that happen, this is not necessarily an amazing coincidence?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Patterns in numbers are often coincidences, noticed due to our tendency to find meaning even in random data.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Observation

First, we need to acknowledge that the exercise is presenting a series of interesting coincidences where the number 11 seems to appear frequently. This might seem uncanny or amazing at first glance.
02

Recognize Human Pattern Recognition Tendencies

Humans are naturally inclined to recognize patterns and find meaning in them. Our brains automatically try to make sense of the world by identifying patterns, even in random events or data.
03

Consider Large Data Set and Selective Attention

In any given year, day, or significant event, there are countless pieces of numerical data like dates, flight numbers, or passenger counts. When looking retrospectively, it is easy to find a specific pattern (such as the number 11) if you selectively pay attention to certain numbers while ignoring others.
04

Analyze the Likelihood of Similar Patterns

Given the vast number of numbers involved in any event, it's likely to find some form of pattern or coincidence purely by chance. Many different numbers could have seemingly coincidental meanings if one started looking for different patterns (e.g., another number like 7 or 8).
05

Conclude the Non-Significance

All considered, the frequent appearance of the number 11 in these examples results from how selectively focusing on certain data can create patterns that seem meaningful but are not necessarily significant in a statistical or deeper sense.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Pattern Recognition
Our brains have an incredible ability to identify patterns. This evolved ability helps us make quick decisions by recognizing familiar situations. However, our pattern recognition can also lead us to spot patterns where none actually exist. For instance, seeing faces in clouds or making connections between unrelated events. The exercise example is a perfect illustration. We see the number 11 occur across different situations, which appears extraordinary at first glance.

However, this is simply a case of our pattern-recognition abilities at work trying to bring order to chaos. If we expand beyond the initial observation to a broader range of numbers or events, the pattern we see starts to unravel. This happens because our selective attention has honed in on certain details, while overlooking others. Keep in mind, randomness often contains patterns, and our minds are eager to detect them.
Coincidence
When we talk about coincidences, we're considering events that occur together in a surprising way without any apparent connection. The idea of coincidence is heavily influenced by human perception and psychology. Coincidences, like the examples from the exercise, draw attention because they stand out against the backdrop of everyday randomness. If we take a step back, the 'coincidence' often fades when considered objectively.

In reality, coincidences are quite common due to the sheer number of possible events and combinations. We tend to notice and remember them more than mundane combinations, so they seem more special than they really are. Many factors, including selective attention and the human tendency for pattern recognition, can make coincidences appear more significant than they are.
Statistical Significance
Statistical significance refers to the likelihood that a result or relationship is caused by something other than mere random chance. It's a mathematical approach used to determine the reliability of a pattern observed in data. In contrast, the coincidences seen with the number 11 do not hold up under statistical scrutiny.

While mathematically intriguing, these occurrences of the number 11 lack statistical significance. This is because we can find similar patterns for almost any number if we search widely enough across numerous events. It's like rolling a die enough times; eventually, patterns will emerge. However, simply existing or appearing frequently does not necessarily imply a meaningful or significant relationship.
Selective Attention
Selective attention is the process where our brain focuses on specific information while ignoring other stimuli. This cognitive mechanism is crucial for daily life, allowing us to filter out irrelevant data and concentrate on what matters. However, it can also lead to biased observations.

In the context of the exercise, selective attention is what led observers to highlight the instances of the number 11. By focusing on specific details while neglecting countless others, one can easily construct patterns or significance that isn't truly there. Every day, we're surrounded by countless data points. It's our selective attention that dictates which of these stand out to us and seem important, even if they are not statistically meaningful. Remember, a keen focus on particular details can often overshadow the bigger picture.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Big loser in Lotto Example 10 showed that the probability of having the winning ticket in Lotto South was 0.00000007 . Find the probability of holding a ticket that has zero winning numbers out of the 6 numbers selected (without replacement) for the winning ticket out of the 49 possible numbers.

A teacher announces a pop quiz for which the student is completely unprepared. The quiz consists of 100 true-false questions. The student has no choice but to guess the answer randomly for all 100 questions. a. Simulate taking this quiz by random guessing. Number a sheet of paper 1 to 100 to represent the 100 questions. Write a T (true) or F (false) for each question, by predicting what you think would happen if you repeatedly flipped a coin and let a tail represent a T guess and a head represent an F guess. (Don't actually flip a coin; merely write down what you think a random series of guesses would look like.) b. How many questions would you expect to answer correctly simply by guessing? c. The table shows the 100 correct answers. The answers should be read across rows. How many questions did you answer correctly? d. The preceding answers were actually randomly generated by an app. What percentage were true, and what percentage would you expect? Why are they not necessarily identical? e. Are there groups of answers within the sequence of 100 answers that appear nonrandom? For instance, what is the longest run of Ts or Fs? By comparison, which is the longest run of Ts or Fs within your sequence of 100 answers? (There is a tendency in guessing what randomness looks like to identify too few long runs in which the same outcome occurs several times in a row.)

Petra Kvitova serves Petra Kvitova of the Czech Republic won the 2014 Wimbledon Ladies' Singles Championship. In the final game against Eugenie Bouchard of Canada she had 41 first serves, of which 28 were good, and three double faults. a. Find the probability that her first serve is good. b. Find the conditional probability of double faulting, given that her first serve resulted in a fault. c. On what percentage of her service points does she double fault?

In the opening scene of Tom Stoppard's play Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead, about two Elizabethan contemporaries of Hamlet, Guildenstern flips a coin 91 times and gets a head each time. Suppose the coin was balanced. a. Specify the sample space for 91 coin flips, such that each outcome in the sample space is equally likely. How many outcomes are in the sample space? b. Show Guildenstern's outcome for this sample space. Show the outcome in which only the second flip is a tail. c. What's the probability of the event of getting a head 91 times in a row? d. What's the probability of at least one tail in the 91 flips? e. State the probability model on which your solutions in parts \(\mathrm{c}\) and \(\mathrm{d}\) are based.

Before the first human heart transplant, Dr. Christiaan Barnard of South Africa was asked to assess the probability that the operation would be successful. Did he need to rely on the relative frequency definition or the subjective definition of probability? Explain.

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