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Petra Kvitova serves Petra Kvitova of the Czech Republic won the 2014 Wimbledon Ladies' Singles Championship. In the final game against Eugenie Bouchard of Canada she had 41 first serves, of which 28 were good, and three double faults. a. Find the probability that her first serve is good. b. Find the conditional probability of double faulting, given that her first serve resulted in a fault. c. On what percentage of her service points does she double fault?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. \( P(\text{Good First Serve}) = \frac{28}{41} \) b. \( \frac{3}{13} \) c. \( 6.82\% \)

Step by step solution

01

Calculate Total Serve Attempts

The total serve attempts can be calculated by adding the number of first serves and the number of double faults. In this case, the total serve attempts = 41 (first serves) + 3 (double faults) = 44 serves.
02

Find Probability of Good First Serve

To find the probability that a first serve is good, divide the number of good first serves by the total number of first serves: \( P(\text{Good First Serve}) = \frac{28}{41} \).
03

Calculate Faults

A fault occurs when a first serve is not good. Hence, we have \( 41 - 28 = 13 \) faults from first serves.
04

Calculate Conditional Probability of Double Fault

A double fault happens after a first serve fault. Therefore, the conditional probability of double faulting given a first serve was a fault is \( P(\text{Double Fault | First Serve Fault}) = \frac{3}{13} \).
05

Calculate Double Fault Percentage

The percentage of service points where she double faults is given by the proportion of total double faults to total serve attempts: \( \frac{3}{44} \times 100\% \approx 6.82\% \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Conditional Probability
Conditional probability is the likelihood of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred. In tennis, understanding conditional probability can help players and coaches predict outcomes and make strategic decisions.
For instance, in the case of Petra Kvitova, we are interested in the probability that she commits a double fault, given that her first serve was a fault. This helps us understand how often a second serve error follows a first serve fault.
The formula for conditional probability is:
  • \[ P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} \]
where \( P(A|B) \) is the probability of event A occurring given event B has occurred, \( P(A \cap B) \) is the probability that both event A and event B occur, and \( P(B) \) is the probability of event B.
In Petra's serve statistics, given there were 13 faults from first serves and 3 double faults thereafter, this knowledge gives us insight into her serving reliability and areas for improvement.
First Serve Probability
First serve probability refers to the likelihood that a player's first serve will land in the correct service box. This is a pivotal metric in tennis, as a successful first serve can set the tone for the entire rally.
Petra Kvitova's performance in the Wimbledon final showed a first serve probability of approximately 68.29%. This was calculated by evaluating the number of successful first serves, which was 28, against the total first serves attempted, which was 41.
The formula used is:
  • \[ P(\text{Good First Serve}) = \frac{\text{Number of Good First Serves}}{\text{Total First Serve Attempts}} \]
A higher first serve probability indicates that a player is more likely to gain an advantage early in the point. Coaches and players use this statistic to focus on honing first serve accuracy and effectiveness.
Fault Analysis
Fault analysis in tennis involves examining the reasons and frequency of serves that fail to land in the service box, thereby resulting in a fault. Understanding patterns in faults can help players improve serve consistency and minimize errors.
In Petra's match, 13 of her serves were faults, calculated by subtracting the successful first serves (28) from the total first serves (41). Identifying this pattern provides valuable insight into areas where her serve technique may need adjustment, or where psychological factors may influence serve performance.
Analyzing faults holistically, including both technical and psychological aspects, can significantly reduce the chance of faults and ensure more competitive play.
Service Point Analysis
Service point analysis looks at a player's overall performance on serve, including how frequently they score, create opportunities, or make errors such as double faults. This is crucial for understanding and improving serve effectiveness.
Petra Kvitova's service points analysis showed she committed 3 double faults in 44 serve attempts, which equates to a double fault percentage of about 6.82%.
The formula for calculating this is:
  • \[ \text{Double Fault Percentage} = \left( \frac{\text{Number of Double Faults}}{\text{Total Serve Attempts}} \right) \times 100\% \]
By understanding and analyzing these statistics, players can tweak their service strategy to enhance reliability and accuracy, ultimately boosting performance during crucial match moments.

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