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A survey asks subjects whether they believe that global warming is happening (yes or no) and how much fuel they plan to use annually for automobile driving in the future, compared to their past use (less, about the same, more). a. Show the sample space of possible outcomes by drawing a tree diagram that first gives the response on global warming and then the response on fuel use. b. Let \(A\) be the event of a "yes" response on global warming and let \(\mathrm{B}\) be the event of a "less" response on future fuel use. Suppose \(\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{A}\) and \(\mathrm{B})>\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{A}) \mathrm{P}(\mathrm{B})\) Indicate whether \(\mathrm{A}\) and \(\mathrm{B}\) are independent events and explain what this means in nontechnical terms.

Short Answer

Expert verified
A and B are not independent because \(P(A \text{ and } B) > P(A) \times P(B)\), indicating the events are related.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Survey

The survey consists of two questions: One about belief in global warming (yes or no) and another about future fuel use (less, about the same, more). There are two outcomes for the first question and three outcomes for the second question.
02

Construct the Tree Diagram for Sample Space

First, draw two branches stemming from the initial point representing 'yes' or 'no' responses to the global warming question. Each branch will then split into three more branches representing 'less', 'about the same', and 'more' responses to the fuel use question. This results in six final branches in total.
03

Define Events A and B

Event A is when a respondent answers 'yes' to believing in global warming. Event B is when a respondent says they plan to use 'less' fuel in the future. These events intersect when the respondent answers 'yes' to global warming and 'less' for future fuel use.
04

Understand Probability Relationship

The condition given is \(P(A \text{ and } B) > P(A) \times P(B)\). This inequality suggests the probability of both events occurring together is greater than the product of their individual probabilities.
05

Determine Independence of Events

Two events are independent if \(P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \times P(B)\). Since we are given that \(P(A \text{ and } B) > P(A) \times P(B)\), A and B are not independent.
06

Non-Technical Explanation of Dependence

The events 'believing in global warming' and 'planning to use less fuel' affect each other. This suggests people who believe in global warming are more likely to reduce their fuel use than expected if their behaviors were independent.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Space
In survey analysis, a sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. Here, our 'experiment' is a survey with two questions. The first question is about the belief in global warming and the second question is about future fuel use. This simple survey provides a clear way to consider the concept of a sample space.

The first question has two possible answers - 'yes' or 'no'. The second question expands into three potential responses - 'less', 'about the same', or 'more'. Therefore, each answer to the first question can be paired with each answer to the second question.

Thus, altogether, we have a sample space with six possible outcomes:
  • Yes and Less
  • Yes and About the Same
  • Yes and More
  • No and Less
  • No and About the Same
  • No and More
Understanding the sample space is vital because it shows all potential survey results and forms a base for further probability calculations.
Probability
Probability measures the likelihood of an event occurring based on the defined sample space. In our survey case, we can assess the probability of a particular response pattern being selected.

For example, if event A denotes answering 'yes' to the question about global warming, we might be interested in the probability of event A occurring, which we label as \(P(A)\). Similarly, event B (using less fuel) will have its probability, \(P(B)\).

Calculating probabilities helps us understand the tendencies or preferences of subjects within the context of the survey. We can combine probabilities of independent events, or consider them together, using principles like the multiplication rule, to get deeper insights into the relationships between survey responses.
Event Dependence
Event dependence occurs when the probability of one event is influenced by the occurrence of another event. This is important in surveys because events that are dependent suggest a relationship between the different responses/questions.

In the exercise, events A and B are dependent, as shown by the condition \(P(A \text{ and } B) > P(A) \times P(B)\). This signifies that knowing one event helps in better predicting the other. Simply put, a person who believes in global warming (event A) is more likely to say they will use less fuel (event B) than if these preferences were independent.

Understanding whether events are dependent or independent is crucial when analyzing survey data because it can reveal hidden correlations or associations between questions, informing better decision-making or predictions.
Tree Diagram
A tree diagram is a pictorial representation used to display the sample space or outcome possibilities of an experiment. It is especially useful in visualizing probabilities and independence.

In our survey, the tree diagram begins with two branches representing responses to the global warming question ('yes' or 'no'), and each of these branches splits into three branches representing fuel use responses ('less', 'about the same', 'more').

This visual model clearly lays out all possible paths the survey could take, helping us easily count the possible outcomes and see how events could unfold. By illustrating this branching, the tree diagram helps simplify both the understanding of possible outcomes and exploration of probabilities related to event dependencies.

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