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A pizza shop sells pizzas in four different sizes. The 1000 most recent orders for a single pizza resulted in the following proportions for the various sizes: $$ \begin{array}{lcccc} \text { Size } & 12 \text { in. } & 14 \text { in. } & 16 \text { in. } & 18 \text { in. } \\ \text { Proportion } & 0.20 & 0.25 & 0.50 & 0.05 \end{array} $$ With \(x=\) the size of a pizza in a single-pizza order, the given table is an approximation to the population distribution of \(x\). a. Write a few sentences describing what you would expect to see for pizza sizes over a long sequence of single-pizza orders. b. What is the approximate value of \(P(x<16)\) ? c. What is the approximate value of \(P(x \leq 16)\) ?

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) In a long sequence of single-pizza orders, we would expect 20% of the orders to be 12-inch pizzas, 25% of the orders to be 14-inch pizzas, 50% of the orders to be 16-inch pizzas, and 5% of the orders to be 18-inch pizzas. The most popular pizza size is 16 inches, and the least popular is 18 inches. (b) The approximate probability of the pizza size being less than 16 inches, P(x < 16), is 0.45 or 45%. (c) The approximate probability of the pizza size being less than or equal to 16 inches, P(x ≤ 16), is 0.95 or 95%.

Step by step solution

01

(Understanding the given distribution)

The distribution of pizza size orders is given by the table with proportions for each size: 12-inch, 14-inch, 16-inch, and 18-inch pizzas.
02

(a: Describing the pizza size trend)

If we observe a long sequence of single-pizza orders, we'd expect that: - 20% of the orders would be 12-inch pizzas - 25% of the orders would be 14-inch pizzas - 50% of the orders would be 16-inch pizzas - 5% of the orders would be 18-inch pizzas This means that the most popular pizza size is 16 inches, and the least popular is 18 inches.
03

(b: Approximating probability P(x < 16))

The probability of a pizza size being less than 16 inches, P(x < 16), can be determined by adding the proportions of orders with the sizes of 12 inches and 14 inches. P(x < 16) = P(x = 12) + P(x = 14) P(x < 16) = 0.20 + 0.25 P(x < 16) ≈ 0.45 So, the approximate probability of the pizza size being less than 16 inches is 0.45 or 45%.
04

(c: Approximating probability P(x ≤ 16))

The probability of a pizza size being less than or equal to 16 inches, P(x ≤ 16), can be determined by adding the proportions of orders with the sizes of 12 inches, 14 inches, and 16 inches. P(x ≤ 16) = P(x = 12) + P(x = 14) + P(x = 16) P(x ≤ 16) = 0.20 + 0.25 + 0.50 P(x ≤ 16) ≈ 0.95 So, the approximate probability of the pizza size being less than or equal to 16 inches is 0.95 or 95%.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Population Distribution
A population distribution provides a snapshot of how different categories or values are represented across a population. In our example, the sizes of pizzas fall into four categories—12 inches, 14 inches, 16 inches, and 18 inches. The given proportions for these categories reflect the distribution of single-pizza orders. Over a long sequence of orders, one can expect:
  • 20% of pizzas to be 12 inches.
  • 25% to be 14 inches.
  • 50% to be 16 inches.
  • Only 5% to be 18 inches.
This distribution helps reveal patterns or tendencies, such as how the 16-inch pizza is the most popular choice, and the 18-inch pizza is the least favored. Understanding the population distribution allows businesses to make informed decisions, like adjusting inventory or marketing strategies.
Proportions
In statistics, proportions represent the size or share of each category related to the total. For pizza shop data, proportions describe the likelihood of ordering each pizza size given previous orders. The proportions for sizes of 12, 14, 16, and 18 inches are 0.20, 0.25, 0.50, and 0.05, respectively.
Understanding proportions is key in making predictions. For example, given the proportion of 0.50, you could say that if 100 pizzas are ordered, around 50 of them might be 16-inch pizzas. Proportions help quantify the preferences within a population, assisting in inventory planning, customer satisfaction analysis, and more. These proportions should be monitored regularly as they may evolve over time due to changes in consumer preferences or menu updates.
Probability Calculation
Calculating probabilities from proportions is straightforward. It involves summing the proportions of interest. For instance, the probability of ordering a pizza less than 16 inches, denoted as \(P(x < 16)\), can be found by adding the probabilities of ordering 12-inch and 14-inch pizzas:
  • \(P(x < 16) = P(x = 12) + P(x = 14) = 0.20 + 0.25 = 0.45\)
Thus, there's a 45% chance that a pizza ordered will be less than 16 inches. Similarly, to find \(P(x \leq 16)\), which includes ordering a 16-inch pizza, sum up:
  • \(P(x \leq 16) = P(x = 12) + P(x = 14) + P(x = 16) = 0.20 + 0.25 + 0.50 = 0.95\)
This means there's a 95% chance of ordering a pizza that is 16 inches or smaller. Such calculations are essential for anticipating demand and aligning with customer preferences.
Descriptive Statistics
Descriptive statistics afford a method to summarize and describe a set of data. With pizza orders, key statistics like mean, median, and mode are useful to summarize pizza size preferences. For our dataset, the mode is apparent as 16-inch since it has the highest proportion.

Descriptive statistics simplify how we interpret and communicate data patterns. Outside mean, median, and mode, proportions themselves serve as a form of descriptive statistics, reflecting frequency and potential variances in orders. Descriptive approaches inform better strategic decisions within the business, like what deals to promote or when certain stock may run low. They play an essential role in both understanding historical data and forecasting future trends.

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