/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 11 Suppose that fund-raisers at a u... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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Suppose that fund-raisers at a university call recent graduates to request donations for campus outreach programs. They report the following information for last year's graduates: $$\begin{array}{lllll}\text { Size of donation } & \$ 0 & \$ 10 & \$ 25 & \$\end{array}$$ 0.30 0 Proportion of calls 0.45 .20 0.05 Three attempts were made to contact each graduate. A donation of $$\$ 0$$ was recorded both for those who were contacted but declined to make a donation and for those who were not reached in three attempts. Consider the variable \(x=\) amount of donation for a person selected at random from the population of last year's graduates of this university. a. Write a few sentences describing what donation amounts you would expect to see if the value of \(x\) was observed for each of 1000 graduates. b. What is the most common value of \(x\) in this population? c. What is \(P(x \geq 25)\) ? d. What is \(P(x>0)\) ?

Short Answer

Expert verified
In a sample of 1000 graduates, we would expect approximately 300 graduates to donate \$0, 450 graduates to donate \$10, 200 graduates to donate \$25, and 50 graduates to donate \$50. The most common donation amount is \$10, with a probability of 0.45. The probability of a graduate donating an amount greater than or equal to \$25 is 0.25, and the probability of donating greater than \$0 is 0.70.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Probability Distribution

From the given data, we can create a probability distribution of the different donation amounts: Donation amount: \$0 | \$10 | \$25 | \$50 Probability: 0.30 | 0.45 | 0.20 | 0.05 Now we have a clear representation of the probabilities for each donation amount, and we can use this information to answer the questions.
02

Describe expected donation amounts for 1000 graduates (part a)

Based on the given probability distribution, we can estimate the expected number of graduates who will donate each amount if the value of x was observed for each of 1000 graduates. - No donation or not reached (\$0): 30% of 1000 graduates = 1000 × 0.30 = 300 graduates - \$10 donation: 45% of 1000 graduates = 1000 × 0.45 = 450 graduates - \$25 donation: 20% of 1000 graduates = 1000 × 0.20 = 200 graduates - \$50 donation: 5% of 1000 graduates = 1000 × 0.05 = 50 graduates If the value of x was observed for each of 1000 graduates, we would expect approximately 300 graduates to donate \$0, 450 graduates to donate \$10, 200 graduates to donate \$25, and 50 graduates to donate \$50.
03

Find the most common value of x (part b)

To find the most common value of x, we need to look at the donation amount with the highest probability in the given distribution. Donation: \$0 | \$10 | \$25 | \$50 Probability: 0.30 | 0.45 | 0.20 | 0.05 The most common value of donation (x) in this population is \$10, as it has the highest probability (0.45).
04

Calculate the probability (part c and d)

For part c, we are asked to find the probability of a graduate donating an amount >= \$25: P(x ≥ 25) = P(x = 25) + P(x = 50) = 0.20 + 0.05 = 0.25 The probability that x is greater than or equal to \$25 is 0.25. For part d, we are asked to find the probability of a graduate donating an amount > \$0: P(x > 0) = 1 - P(x = 0) = 1 - 0.30 = 0.70 The probability that x is greater than \$0 in this population is 0.70.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Random Variable
A random variable is a numerical description of the outcome of a statistical experiment. It assigns a numerical value to each possible outcome of the experiment, thereby quantifying uncertainty. In the context of the donation amounts from college graduates, the random variable, denoted as x, represents the amount of donation a graduate will give, which could be \(0, \)10, \(25, or \)50.

To make this concept more tangible, think of the random variable as a placeholder that takes on different monetary values with certain probabilities whenever a recent graduate is called for a donation. It’s crucial for students to gravitate towards understanding that a random variable is not constant; rather, it changes unpredictably, thus 'random', within the framework of the probabilities assigned to its potential outcomes.
Statistical Expectation
The statistical expectation, also known as the expected value, is the average amount you would expect if you were to repeat the random process an infinite number of times. It is calculated by multiplying each possible outcome by the probability of that outcome, then summing all these products.

In our exercise, if the random variable x signifies the donations made by graduates, the expected value of x would answer the question: On average, how much money should the university expect to receive from a random graduate if the process of calling graduates for donations were repeated many times? To calculate it, use the formula:
\[E(x) = \$0 \times 0.30 + \$10 \times 0.45 + \$25 \times 0.20 + \$50 \times 0.05\].

Understanding the concept of expected value helps students in predicting the long-term average of a random variable, providing insight into many possible occurrences of certain events or outcomes.
Discrete Probability
When we talk about discrete probability, we refer to scenarios where the outcomes of a random process are countable and each has a certain probability. Each possible outcome, or event, is assigned a probability between 0 and 1, with the sum of all probabilities equalling 1. This is different from continuous probabilities, where outcomes are not countable as they form a continuum.

In the scenario given with the university fund-raisers, the probabilities (0.30, 0.45, 0.20, 0.05) associated with the discrete donation amounts (\(0, \)10, \(25, \)50) form a discrete probability distribution. Such distributions are useful in calculating the likelihood of various outcomes, as shown in parts (c) and (d) of the problem, and in estimating expected values. For educators, it's critical to express to students that understanding discrete probability is foundational to grasping the basics of random events and their implications in real life.

Moreover, discrete probability teaches us how likely certain results are, influencing decision-making and predictions in uncertain conditions, making it vital to fields such as finance, insurance, and any sector dealing with risk assessment.

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